Genghis on Debt Ceiling II: Return of the Boehner
Gallup: Obama 45, Romney 45
Fact That Things Suck Cited As Impediment To Re-Election
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Genghis on Debt Ceiling II: Return of the Boehner Gallup: Obama 45, Romney 45 Fact That Things Suck Cited As Impediment To Re-Election |
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I think we're about to get a much-needed reminder that stock markets don't always go down.
Could happen today, could happen tomorrow, and it may or may not happen after one last big selloff, but we're going to get a relief rally very soon. I don't expect it to last long, but I do expect it to be rather violent and dramatic. Maybe we get back close to 11,000 on the Dow.
My short-term optimism (and change in opinion) stems from a conversation I had with a hedge fund guy at a conference on Tuesday. He said every hedge fund guy is desperately looking for new stocks to short. 'You can't have enough short ideas," he told me.
It's counter-intuitive, but it's actually good when investors are all bearish because that means there's a lot fewer people with stock they want to sell. (Remember, short selling is a bet against the market in which investors sell borrowed shares of stock in hopes of buying them back at a lower price and pocketing the difference).
It's been especially difficult for hedge funds because the government unwisely banned short-selling in more than 1,000 different stocks (the list was at first 800 stocks, and was supposed to be limited to financial companies, but the list has expanded to the point of ridiculousness both in terms of size and scope).
At first, I thought the short-selling ban was keeping the market unnaturally high, but now I think it may have had the unintended consequences of making things worse. Hedge funds who may have covered their shorts haven't done so because they know they can't put them back on. Some sectors like technology may have been especially hurt as hedge funds looking for shorts have had to target companies outside the financial industry.
So I think the lifting of the short-selling ban Wednesday night could prove to be a catalyst to spark that rally. The Fed could come together with the European Central Bank to lower rates in a coordinated attempt to stimulate the markets.
Again, in the long term, I don't think anything the government does will prevent an extended, deep slowdown, the likes of which we haven't seen for decades, if not generations. The market will probably sink even lower than where it is today.
But at this point, even a short-term rally would be most welcome.
By Nancy Benac, Associated Press, May 16, 2012
After the nastiness of the Republican primary race, former candidates have collective amnesia about Romney disses
Note to self: you think you're so smart about this kinda stuff, but you yourself fell for it once again.....so much for all the prognostication about one of our political parties disintegrating from all the primary campaign animosity.
Pew Resarch Center for the People and the Press, May 15, 2012
For decades survey research has provided trusted data about political attitudes and voting behavior, the economy, health, education, demography and many other topics. But political and media surveys are facing significant challenges as a consequence of societal and technological changes.
It has become increasingly difficult to contact potential respondents and to persuade them to participate. The percentage of households in a sample that are successfully interviewed – the response rate – has fallen dramatically. At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today. The general decline in response rates is evident across nearly all types of surveys, in the United States and abroad. At the same time, greater effort and expense are required to achieve even the diminished response rates of today. These challenges have led many to question whether surveys are still providing accurate and unbiased information [....]
On May 16, 2012 at 7:00 PM, the Ride of Silence will begin in North America and roll across the globe. Cyclists will take to the roads in a silent procession to honor cyclists who have been killed or injured while cycling on public roadways. Although cyclists have a legal right to share the road with motorists, the motoring public often isn't aware of these rights, and sometimes not aware of the cyclists themselves.
...
The Ride of Silence is a free ride that asks its cyclists to ride no faster than 12 mph, wear helmets, follow the rules of the road and remain silent during the ride. There are no sponsors and no registration fees. The ride, which is held during National Bike Month, aims to raise the awareness of motorists, police and city officials that cyclists have a legal right to the public roadways. The ride is also a chance to show respect for and honor the lives of those who have been killed or injured.
A new UCLA rat study is the first to show how a diet steadily high in fructose slows the brain, hampering memory and learning — and how omega-3 fatty acids can counteract the disruption. The peer-reviewed Journal of Physiology publishes the findings in its May 15 edition.
"Our findings illustrate that what you eat affects how you think," said Fernando Gomez-Pinilla, a professor of neurosurgery at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA and a professor of integrative biology and physiology in the UCLA College of Letters and Science. "Eating a high-fructose diet over the long term alters your brain's ability to learn and remember information. But adding omega-3 fatty acids to your meals can help minimize the damage."
While earlier research has revealed how fructose harms the body through its role in diabetes, obesity and fatty liver, this study is the first to uncover how the sweetener influences the brain.
The UCLA team zeroed in on high-fructose corn syrup, an inexpensive liquid six times sweeter than cane sugar, that is commonly added to processed foods, including soft drinks, condiments, applesauce and baby food. The average American consumes more than 40 pounds of high-fructose corn syrup per year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
"We're not talking about naturally occurring fructose in fruits, which also contain important antioxidants," explained Gomez-Pinilla, who is also a member of UCLA's Brain Research Institute and Brain Injury Research Center. "We're concerned about high-fructose corn syrup that is added to manufactured food products as a sweetener and preservative."
[Better write this down]
Christopher Doyon, a.k.a. Commander X, sits atop a hillside in an undisclosed location in Canada, watching a reporter and photographer make their way along a narrow path to join him, away from the prying eyes of law enforcement.
It’s been a few weeks of encrypted emails back and forth, working out the security protocol to follow for interviewing Doyon, one of the brains behind Anonymous, now a fugitive from the FBI.
Doyon, who readily admits taking part in some of the highest-profile hacktivist attacks on websites last year — from Tunisia to Orlando, Sony to PayPal — was arrested in September for a comparatively minor assault on the county website of Santa Cruz, Calif., where he was living, in retaliation for the town forcibly removing a homeless encampment on the courthouse steps.
The “virtual sit-in” lasted half an hour. For that, Doyon is facing 15 years in jail.
My understanding of this isn't as complete as I'd like, but I'm under the impression that shorting has a valuable purpose in the market. It seems that the recent ban on shorts was terribly reactionary and that short-selling in general was given a bad name by the prevalence of naked shorts (which I thought were supposed to be illegal).
you're 100% right, DF. Legal short-selling does provide a valuable purpose in the market, and the decision to ban it was just a bad, reactionary move that did nothing to solve our immense and complicated underlying problems.
now they want to move away from mark-to-market accounting. It's amazing to hear people who espouse the beauty and power of the free market and rail against regulation now calling for bailouts and short-selling bans and the end of mark-to-market and a hundred different other free market-bastardization moves.
I'd go you one better and call it surreal.
Thanks for post. It’s really informative stuff.
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