Campaign Thoughts (pt 2)

    Did Bill pave Hillary's way to the White House? His impeachment didn't help, nor overall did his affairs/accusers, triangulation along with NAFTA & the crime bill have haunted her as once did Whitewater and her failed attempt at health care. And then there's the Iraq vote & Libya invasion on her own. Thinking back on it, it's a bit hard to figure out how she even got here. (Hint: she's a process person)

    Once again the Elizabeth Warren scare is out - Hillary & Liz will tear each other's hair out!!! Vicious cat fight in the Oval Office! Hssst! Spit! Well no, not likely. Nor is Bernie going to split the government. Hillary's fine with achievable liberal targets. She's not fine with trying to defend 9th month abortions for illegal Syrian immigrants. Life is too short. Same with Bernie. And Liz I'm sure is aware much more to be gained through more constructive sausage-making over whiskey sours than public flailing - unless the theatrics prove useful. to sell the deal.

    Poor Mitt Romney - he ran in the Leave It To Beaver era, and now everything's all I Am Curious Yellow. Remember how shocking "binders full of women" was? kinda like Pat Boone before the Jim "all of you come up on stage I want to fuck all of you" Morrison strange days of the soft parade. Gail Collins mentioned Romney's dog on the roof about 200 times - talk about an issues-focused campaign season.

    Fox is bleeding viewers as Newt Gingrich is smacked down by Megyn Kelley, while anchor Shepard Smith is their new/old gay voice and face. Things have changed, chaps - it's not the right wing channel of old - (some) conservative women have started to realize they have their own concerns at odds with their male counterparts, and diversity is starting to impinge. Curiously, Bill "Falafel" O'Reilly of Loofa fame may be one of the few  from the old guard to survive. Perhaps getting sued early was a blessing, put him ahead of the curve. Even Glenn Beck seems different these days.

    Meanwhile, the stalwarts of the GOP have decided "even more off the rails" is in order. They've perfected the Overton Window, expanding the limits of absurd and outrageous to light speed proportions - what will they do for an encore? Oh yes, try to shrink the Supreme Court so can drown it in a bathtub. Even odds it works. Will the GOP's non-deplorables defect, or will it all be chalked up to Trump, not the cast of enablers through the last 2 decades?

    Republicans control 30 state legislatures - yeap, all across the "heartland", Democrats 12. The pivot to down-ticket races in the last 2-3 weeks is fine for taking the Senate (2/3 chance) and thus the Supreme Court - but less sufficient for the House or state races. It's easy to say "organize", but dedication and enthusiasm to that degree is better stoked with grassroots crazy. Dems have long had difficult competing to that degree. The good news is apparently the vote heavily tracks the Presidential election years (point #20). The bad news is the Republicans usually make it back and more in off years. Gather ye rosebuds while ye may...

    Perhaps I missed someone in the campaign comment on it, but one reason we have so many Syrian refugees (Europe, not the US) is that the US and its allies assumed Assad would be easy to overthrow, so armed the rebels. 1 million+ refugees later, and we still have atrocities like the bombing of Aleppo, while the Brits got Brexit as their just fruits for their overreach, but don't seem to have realized it - help stoke the chaos & then wonder why the natives don't stay at home? Next time: more humble ambitions, more realistic goals.

    Speaking of Brexit, aside from Theresa May being caught pitching opposite advice to what she says in private, expect that a Hillary win will dampen the UK conservative hold, repudiating their own version of Trumpism, and give Remain another shot. It's that "Special Relationship".

    As for "Behind Closed Doors", Bernie came out and said what everyone knew already - we all say nasty things in private about our competition, and usually manage to mop it all up once the fight's over (at least Dem-Dem). It was amazing the initial DNC leaks got as much attention as they did - the last batch is a dud. Speaking of Bernie, no, he's not going to be such a huge frenemy either - people do like to get alarmed.

    Wikileaks has hugely changed the dynamics for future elections. The good news (for now) - Hillary's largely as boring in private as many assumed (even those long awaited Goldman Sachs transcripts). The bad news - most candidates aren't, and most aren't used to being raked over the coals 400 times (see Mitt Romney above). Expect some combination of hyper-transparency juxtaposed to hyper-self-restraint - can we govern like that? Politicians publicly respond to the most obnoxious voices. Having access to the inner sanctum provides more ammo. Look at Judicial Watch.

    Watched a piece on D-Day tonight where 400,000 died from both sides. For all the talk about ISIS and military actions, there have been only 3 drone strikes in Pakistan this year, 14 in Yemen, 28 in Somalia. and the number of deaths per year from world conflicts are measured in 10's of thousands rather than millions. Compare that to the breakup of Yugoslavia, the 1998 war in Congo, the genocide in Rwanda. Despite terrorism, the world is much safer than 20 years ago, much much safer from 40-50 years ago, and incomparably safer from the world atrocities and destruction of the 30's and 40's. How do we manage to still stay so scared?

    And then there was the rumor how much Michelle Obama hated Hillary - but has been pulling out all the stops on the campaign trail, as has most of the Democratic stars. All this gossip about dissension, you'd almost think there was something to it.

    Expected to be 40% early voting this year (much of it in-person, not just mail-in or online). Will do much to decrease the effects of voter obstruction and intimidation, and lower the uncertainty on election day. With making voting more flexible, will number of participants actually increase?

    Comments

    Republicans say liberals are "going to open the door for people with malicious intent who would masquerade as transgenders to come in and actually take advantage and have access to our kids," so they pass birth certificate/gender police bathroom laws.

    Then, exhibiting Orwellian doublethink, they prepare for civil insurrection if an avowed bragging serial sexual predator is not elected President.

    Doublethink: the acceptance of or mental capacity to accept contrary opinions or beliefs at the same time, especially as a result of political indoctrination.


    Nate Silver gives HRC an 81% chance which would be great if

    he hadn't given her an 88% 10 days ago.

     


    And if the last bubble is similar, she'll fall to 71% by election day - which are pretty good odds compared to previous election cycles. And her 5.6% leading polling margin is a winner for every  election in 40 years.

    If it makes you feel better, Huffpost has it 98% to 2%.

    Remember, polls and predictions are like playing with Monopoly money.


    Campaign thoughts from Tom Toles, 'When the only tool you have is an arsenal"

    .....The darker side of this fear is that these very guns are going to be needed soon to fight the tyranny. Apparently, it’s the tyranny of a legally elected government in a democratic system, but details, details.

    The idea is openly argued that armed insurrection is what the Second Amendment is really all about, and to have an insurrection, you need a tyranny to insurrect against, real or imagined. And more than a few are apparently feverishly imaginative. Gun ownership is starting to look more like arsenal-building, in that the average number of guns kept by households that own guns has doubled since 1994.

    So the right is all dressed up for a revolution, and it only needs someone to give the signal. And there you have him, Donald Trump. He may lose the election, but hey, what’s an election to him? Rigged, is what. And when the election is rigged, what do you have? Why, a tyranny. And what do you do when you have a tyranny?


    Flavius... From Sam Wang at PEC . . .

    The thorn in "Click-Bait Nate"  Silver's side.

    election.princeton.edu/


    ~OGD~


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