Coming February 6, 2024 . . .
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Pre-order at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
Coming February 6, 2024 . . . MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Pre-order at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
Pete Brodnitz, founder and president of Expedition Strategies, a Democratic polling firm that has performed studies for the Democratic House Majority PAC, wrote by email that in 2018 he found that the white working class could be divided into five political categories: reliably Democratic, 33 percent; lean Democratic, 7 percent; true independents, 10 percent; lean Republican, 7 percent; and reliably Republican, 44 percent.
How each of these categories voted in 2016 shows the importance of these distinctions. In a poll of battleground House Districts, Hillary Clinton carried the reliably Democratic base by a solid 67-point margin (78-11) and the lean Democrats by 61 points (64-3). She lost the true independents by 16 percentage points (21-37). Trump won overwhelmingly among the lean Republican whites (73-12, a 61-point margin) and the solid Republicans by 84 points (88-4), according to the data collected by Expedition Strategies working with Normington/Petts, another Democratic polling firm.
“In almost every way, white non-college Democrats and white non-college Republicans are nothing alike,” Michael Podhorzer, the political director of the AFL-CIO, emailed in response to my inquiry.
Also
The Democrats are much younger, according to Podhorzer: 22 percent are Gen Z or Millennial compared with 12 percent of working class white Republicans. The Democratic members of the white working class are 59 percent female and 41 percent male, compared with 51 percent female, 49 percent male among Republican non-college whites.
Perhaps most important, the white non-college Republican and Democratic constituencies differ radically on policy and political beliefs.
Take favorability ratings of Obamacare, Black Lives Matter and Medicare for all. Among working class white Democrats, the ratings are uniformly positive, according to AFL-CIO data: 89 percent, 80 percent and 85 percent. Among their white Republican counterparts, the ratings are uniformly dismal: 5 percent, 9 percent and 18 percent.
What this data shows is that Democrats should have little trouble retaining the support of members of the white working class who identify as Democrats, but they will struggle mightily to win over their Republican counterparts.
Comments
Surprised to see you post this, seems to me it's the opposite of many arguments rmrd has made in the past:
One is solidly Republican and will stay that way; the other leans Democratic. And then there are the in-betweeners.
You are actually coming round to understanding how the vote of this demographic is crucial in federal elections? That the Democratic party can't win the presidency without some of them? Will wonders never cease?
by artappraiser on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 9:18am
AA, I have not changed my position. You remain trapped in a bubble
Democrats need to energize Independents and their base. The return on investment is better by going after Independents than by chasing Republicans. Independents are more likely to agree with a Democratic message.
It looks like A Democrat may win the Queens NYC race for DA. The candidate won with support from Ocasio-Cortez, Warren, and Sanders.
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 10:04am
The conclusion of an article discussing attracting the non-racist, economically stressed voter who supported Trump
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/buttigieg-bernie-sanders-trump-voters-democrats-2020-election.html
I have asked repeatedly what message would attract this non-existent voting group.
Will some farmers and manufacturers figure out that they are getting screwed by tariffs.? Yes.
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 10:26am
Why post 1 retort when 2 will do...
At least consistent in this little quirk.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 10:40am
First, there is no polling that really indicates Trump is losing his base. The initial post was about how the white working class was split. The article pointed out that it would be difficult to convert many voters to support Democratic issues. I added the additional article because it added support to my position that finding voters who would convert will be difficult. I stand by that position.
Do you have data showing that converting Trump votes will be easy? Given that unemployment is dow, Do you have a message that would persuade these voters to convert?
My position remains to go after Democratic base voters who stayed home in 2016. Also go after Independents. Converting people who voted for Trump is a much more difficult task.
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 11:42am
3rd retort,
Trump Troubadour No More: How I Lost Faith in Our President
by NCD on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 10:54am
Some Trump voters will leave the GOP when they are personally impacted. That has been my position from the beginning.
The article I cited noted the big obstacles in getting those voters to convert.
Trumps approval is rock steady at 538.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
But you do have this one guy at least.
Have you seen numbers that support a mass exodus from Trump support?
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 11:31am
No, but it won't take much for him to lose, however, any country that "elects" (-3 million ) Trump cannot be assumed to not re-elect him, and the GOP have clearly now gone full bore as an unhinged democracy (laws, norms, constitutional principles, truth, compromise) destroying organized crime syndicate, with a toolkit of lies and buttons to push to keep control of their easily exploitable base.
A bright spot is good people are still running for office, total paralysis and apathy are not yet reality.
by NCD on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 12:12pm
Trump supporters have remained in his camp despite the concentration camps, rape allegations, and constant lies.
Democrats win by going back to energizing their base and reaching out to Independents. There are Trump voters who will vote for the Democratic candidate, but their votes will be largely based on the fact that Trump let them down rather than as a response to a Democratic message. I think that those appalled by the treatment of immigrants have already left the GOP. The man appalled by Trump’s response to the opioid crisis, would have overlooked the racism and the concentration camps if Trump addressed his issue in a timely fashion.
It is possible that more will leave as the reality of concentration camps become clear, but for most, it will e because they felt betrayed by Trump.
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 12:55pm