Coming February 6, 2024 . . .
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Pre-order at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
Coming February 6, 2024 . . . MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Pre-order at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
Julián Castro, the former presidential candidate, was right when he called out the Democratic Party’s hypocritical support for the status quo. “Iowa and New Hampshire are wonderful states with wonderful people,” Castro said. But Democrats can’t “complain about Republicans suppressing the votes of people of color, and then begin our nominating contest in two states that hardly have people of color.”
The typical defense from Iowa officials is that their state can be trusted because it once voted for a black man (Barack Obama) — which is a pretty stark bit of paternalism.
In truth, the whiteness of Iowa and New Hampshire matters. Consider that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris were doing as well as Amy Klobuchar in early polls of more diverse states; they led Pete Buttigieg in some polls. But Booker and Harris are finished, in no small part because of their struggles in Iowa and New Hampshire. Klobuchar and Buttigieg still might break out.
Or consider that a candidate with strong white support (like Bernie Sanders) could win both Iowa and New Hampshire this year. That result would create a media narrative about Joe Biden’s campaign being badly wounded, even though Biden leads among two large groups of Democratic voters: African Americans and Latinos. Those voters, however, are told to wait their turn.
Comments
Fixed it for him:
The current system is a form of white privilege that warps the process.The electoral college is a form of rural privilege that warps the process.I might add that doing it was intentional, but that's a whole nother thing. As it's not the 18th century anymore.
by artappraiser on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 2:14am
Re-reading his op-ed, he's basically pointing out the silliness of his own suggestion here:
Does the party want to select a candidate who can win the general election or is the idea to select one that can lose?
HELLO! The general idea with the presidential candidate a party choses: one that can win the electoral college! NOT: who is most popular with registered Democrats nationwide or some such. Get a clue: big urban areas do not count for as much as many think they should in the general election of the president. It is what it is.
by artappraiser on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 11:25am
P.S. A reminder how it used to be done: over cigars in back rooms. Maybe they should go back to that model, just do it more professionally than they used to, take some of the best consultants that candidates now hire and instead have them analyze which candidates can win the electoral college.Would save a heckuva lotta money and angst and horse race games. Primary elections are not real elections. They are selection processes by a political party. In New York state as in others, registered Independents can't even vote in them. As a registered Independent, I'm glad not to have to be part of a rigged process that I dislike immensely. But make no mistake: one way or another, it is a rigged process. Once again, with the presidential candidate, the idea is to select someone to win the Electoral College.
by artappraiser on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 11:43am
The problem is few if any consultant would have picked one of those winners to be the nominee, Obama. And if NC was the first primary state blacks in that state would likely have voted for Hillary. Blacks are generally more moderate than whites. Moderates tend to be risk adverse. It was Obama's win in Iowa that moved the risk adverse blacks in NC to believe he might win and caused many to move their vote to him. Before the Iowa win NC blacks by a clear margin supported Hillary.
by ocean-kat on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 4:13pm
The counter argument is that focusing on the majority white states of Iowa and New Hampshire hasn't guaranteed Electoral College wins for Democrats. Castro's plan may not be far-fetched, it just hasn't been tried.
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 12:25pm
Well that's just plain wrong about Iowa:
from https://www.npr.org/2016/01/31/465016222/how-predictive-are-iowa-and-new-hampshire
by artappraiser on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 12:40pm
The Iowa *caucus* and the massive amount of time "getting to know everyone* means it's much more in-your-living-room. I'd guess there's much larger turnout than any other caucus, and you have to really cultivate a fanbase. I remember a caucus where Jesse Jackson's group managed to attract a great number in a hall that might have been much less swayed by a read-the-papers-and-vote setup (aka "primaries" like in NH). New Hampshire is much more to punish the candidates - horrid weather, smile while freezing, show you're tough while reporters beat you up - plus you're close enough to East coast media to make it into the news, while Iowa's more a family secret unless something noticeable sticks out.
Yes, Iowa's a place for a newbie like Carter or Jerry Brown or Clinton or Obama or Howard Dean other wannabes to get notices, to make their mark. I hate hearing caucuses described as accurate meters of popularity - they're Petri dishes for new organisms to pop out, and Iowa's managed to do it best - later there wasn't quite enough time for the magic, especially not in Super Tuesday.
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 11:55pm
The topic was predicting Electoral College wins for Democratic candidates.
Bill Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire
https://www.factcheck.org/2007/12/bill-clinton-lost-iowa-and-new-hampshire-primaries/
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 01/28/2020 - 12:06am
Tom Harkin and Paul Tsongas were running as hometown favorites. But Clinton impressed in New Hampshire, and his earlier press conference on Gennifer Flowers in Iowa gave him, er, visibility.
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 01/28/2020 - 1:03am
Should Iowa and New Hampshire be allowed to have such a prominent place in the election in perpetuity?
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 01/28/2020 - 8:34am
The whole question is silly, in reality it doesn't matter that much who Iowa and NH picks, it's all in your head and in the horse race mentality, nobody is forcing other states to vote the same way. Those two states make it a point to always fight to be first for the media/monetary activity it brings, if other states wanted to do it, they could just fight harder.And Iowa and NH would fight back of course, because they like the business. The political power assigned them is all in people's heads. If you in another state don't want them calling the shots, it's easy, just don't vote the way they did, vote another way, there's nothing stopping you! The only thing giving them power is other Democrats in other states thinking they are wise and have picked the best people.There's nothing else doing it. In reality, right now the Dem party gives states a bonus in power for waiting until May or June, it's ridiculously complicated, look at this mess over at Wikipedia:
It's all in people's heads that they have a good pulse on the nation. They don't get a lot of delegates, there is no real power.
by artappraiser on Tue, 01/28/2020 - 11:49am
There's probably as many liberals as blacks in the democratic party but since they're white they just get lumped in moderate and conservative whites in your race based view of the electorate.
by ocean-kat on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 3:44am
1/4 of the Democratic primary electorate is black.
Nearly 1/2 if Democrats now identify as "liberal".
(though I see myself as extremely liberal in many areas, and pragmatic liberal-marginally conservative in others, open to shocking jarring big change solutions, on the Twitterverse I may be seen as center-right or even conservative - such are labels. How can I like AOC and Pelosi but somewhat dislike Bernie, for example, nor too thrilled but resigned to Biden...)
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/26/facts-about-democrats/
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/black-voters-will-define-what-elec...
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 4:55am
I consider myself very liberal but I also don't always tow the liberal line on all issues. I understand why Sanders is seen as divisive with many moderates unwilling to vote for him but what many don't realize is the Biden is just as divisive as Sanders for many on the left. If there's a problem with Iowa and NH because it has less than the national average of blacks then there is a problem with NC since it has twice the national average of blacks
by ocean-kat on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 5:15am
I've disliked Biden for a long time, but of course if he's the nominee I'll vote for him, and won't re-post the latest Clinton Cash-writer's effort to discredit him, even tho I doubt his son and brother bestow much credit on him. We knew congenial white photogenic guys get away without cleaning up. Fortunately my hunchback, facial scar and abrasive personality mean I don't personally have to apologize.
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 6:39am
The solution would be to begin in states with demographics more reflective of the country.
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 8:28am
Like Texas?
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 8:42am
I made one suggestion. Obviously not written in stone.
Another option is to rotate the states randomly.
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 8:49am
Huh, guess Texas is too brown? Don't quite get it.
https://www.npr.org/2016/01/29/464250335/the-perfect-state-index-if-iowa...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/normal-america-is-not-a-small-town-...
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 9:00am
No problem with the browness of Texas. I had not looked at the state's demographics. Illinois did come to mind but I didn't remember the exact source of the info. I thought you were proposing Texas as some sort of trap.
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 9:11am
I was, but thinking it a "be careful what you ask for" representative state. But again, I suspect it's way too brown to come close to mean U.S. rates.
ETA except Hispanics in 2020 are banging on 19% of population, and that's largely Mexican, though some Central America - though Puerto Rican movement to Florida et al likely increased the last couple years.
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 9:19am
by artappraiser on Fri, 01/31/2020 - 12:11pm
Iowa Does Represent America: It’s Old
The state with a huge influence in picking presidential candidates doesn’t look much like the country as a whole. Except in the 60-plus crowd.
@ NYTimes.com 6h ago
with very convincing graph labeled
by artappraiser on Sun, 02/02/2020 - 4:50pm
in a very helpful NYT op-ed with actual factuals, Michael Tomasky explains how when and why this happened and what the DNC can do and can't, especially this part
from It’s 2020. Time for Democrats to Ignore These Two States, Feb. 2
Everybody talks about Iowa and New Hampshire, but nobody does anything about it. Here’s an idea.
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/03/2020 - 2:57am