Smart political people analyze the big picture fallout of Bernie being the current frontrunner


    Anyone who thinks Biden can win the nomination has been working too long with numbers instead of the alphabet

    Hey PP, Seth must have read our thread. We definitely worked much longer with the alphabet instead of the numbers. We're ahead of the curve.


    Runes rule! One ring to rool them all and in the blogsphere bind them. Math is tuff. Runes is ruff. I'll keep my pet rocks.

    Politico report that centrists/establishment Dems depressed/demoralized:


    Good Wesley Yang reply to Smith's point #5:

    Andrew Yang, 6 hrs. ago:

    moved to correct location


    Zaid Jilani vs. David Leonardt:

    Sanders should do more to reach out to people outside his base, sure, but he went on Fox News, Joe Rogan, spoke to Liberty University, defended Ann Coulter's right to speech, campaigned for a pro-life Democrat, did dozens of rallies for Hillary Clinton

    — Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) February 24, 2020


    Dems haven't learned the lesson of 5-year-plans, the bane of socialism/Communism. It's one thing to unblock structural impediments in an economy or policy implementation - another to mass orchestrate some common good. Warren has excelled in trying to level the playing field. Creating some magical policies for every candidate to sign off on is goofy. I understand the concept of reach, but when you have to reorganize the economy willy nilly and piss off potential allies for a more methodical, sustainable & less disruptive approach?

    I'm happy if a candidate hits say 70% of my preferences. Shitty as I felt about him, Reagan did largely stare down the Soviets vs Carter telling everyone to put on a sweater and learn to live without. 

    Does Bernie get global warming more than Trump? (or Warren for that matter). Or just plan on spending a lot more? ($16 trillion from his website)

    The US has fewer then 300 million vehicles on the road, producing 1/5 our global warming output. For about $35K apiece, we could replace most of those with Teslas or equivalent, for roughly $10 trillion.

    Number of houses in US is about 140 million, so high output/quality solar roofs of $40k each would be about $5 trillion - largely doing away with another 30% of our greenhouse gas emissions.

    Of course it's not quite that easy - battery tech still needs much improvement and it'd be hard to dig that much Lithium out of the earth, production facilities aren't there to churn out that volume, better charging infrastructure needs to be put in (though with massive investment in solar roofs, it'd be rather ubiquitous)... while the costs might be a lot less (cost sharing) with additional (new development and facilities).

    But what's on the debate agenda? getting rid of fracking - which brought us independence from Mideast oil (yes, it produces methane as well, so need to find better ways of mitigating, along with water table runoff). And doing away with nuclear - which is greenhouse gas neutral, and with hopefully much much safer & smaller/modular Class IV reactors in research, would churn out a lot more renewable non-greenhouse energy than solar panels will (and disposing of those panels will be another ecological adventure). But no, instead of "let's solve our global warming crisis", it's back to "let's feed our energy and pollution and class warfare and nuclear fears all at once". Somebody has an agenda, and instead of a moonshot as such an endeavour should be, they want to make it a much more diffuse Great Society effort with no real grownups in the room. Take a look at the part for putting in a lot of roads and bridges - without accounting for the massive greenhouse gases involved in pouring asphalt, cement and concrete. It all becomes a Wish Sandwich. If NASA worked like this we might have hit Venus by mistake.

    "let's feed our energy and pollution and class warfare and nuclear fears all at once" sums it up.

    Throw in free college, free medical and free dental for life, loan wipeout, jail CEOs, ..... promising herds of instant gratification ponies to gullible mobs the majority of whom don't even know the 3 branches of government, nonetheless the certainty none of this stuff Bernie hollers about will ever happen.

    In Nevada reports were that "the 70,000 member union position that they wouldn't endorse Bernie because he would outlaw the healthcare insurance they battled 40 years to get didn't have much impact as union members said they thought about it and would like their relatives and friends to have it too, which Bernie promised.. "

    40 years to get coverage for 70,000, Bernie promises to get it for 330 million, plus unknown millions of "illegals"?

    Math is magical - just find the right multiple.

    For 330 million I get 18,857.1 years to do it, Bernie's 4672nd term. 

    I shoulda thrown in exponentials or π or something. I get only 439 or so, so his 109th term. Hate to exaggerate.

    This was already partly addressed in Nov. on late night teevee, I recall:

    SNL Spoofs Warren's Medicare For All Plan: Numbers This Big Are Just Pretend, "Money Doesn't Exist"

    Just FYI, NCD, I just ran across one you forgot: free child care and pre-K for all, $1.5 trillion over the next decade.

    On Medicare for all, I am finally starting to sort out the confusing stats on polls. I just saw a very good recent reference, sorry I can't find, that convinced me that the general public says they are for it UNTIL they are asked if it means outlawing private insurance and requiring Medicare, the amount in support plummets to a minority, So what the majority of Americans really support is a public option.

    BUT BUT BUT when you go to activist Democratic party members ot the type who show up and vote in primary causcuses, and they are told it would mean getting rid of private insurance, the results are a majority but not that stunning really


    For those wondering, here's the wording of our NBC News poll question on Medicare for All: "How do you feel about replacing all private health insurance with a single government plan for everyone?"

    — Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 23, 2020


    Just not enough support for single payer out there, if only 60% of the Democratic faithful voters are for it! Think of the anger out there if it was even tried--the town halls, etc. They'd bring pitchforks, guns mebbe if Bernie goes back to supporting some gun ownership...

    Myself I find it sad that we're not there yet, but it is what it is! Can't force it, people aren't there yet. And I don't think it's ideal anyways--mho, nationalized health service with private supplementary insurance is the best way. After all, that single payer can at times be as bad as any insurance company if what you need is not on their protocol or formulary. Myself, I'd just appreciate anyone trying to organize and clean up the huge mess we got right now....

    Annenberg at U of Penn found only 1 out of 3 Americans csn name the 3 branches of our government. When Bernie says free healthcare, free dental, free college and free child care, "paid for by a small tax on Wall Street speculators and billionaires (not millionaires as that would include Bernie) it's easy to convince the low information voter he can do it. Alone. Forget those corrupt Democrats. Don't need 'em.

    Bernie is a populist demagogue, Trump a wannabe fascist demagogue. "Only Bernie" will fight the evil "establishment" , "only Donald Trump" will fight the evil "deep state." They are both narcissistic flim flam blowhards. If they are the future of our politics we are in serious trouble.

    Just don't know:

    Very interesting media insider scuttlebutt:

    Nate Silver a few minutes ago...coming to some conclusions but also still seems to be processing:

    Rick Wilson has no need for all of yas fucking analyis:

    I don't *care* about Bernie's philosophy. It's totally irrelevant to me.

    I *care* that Bernie is Trump's re-election insurance and may very will lose the House and prevent a recapture of the Senate.

    I want to defeat Trump, full stop. That's all.

    — Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 24, 2020

    Wilson gets shit done.

    — Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 24, 2020

    Gee, it’s ALMOST as if Trump’s fluffer brigade is desperate to have Bernie as the nominee.


    — Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 25, 2020



    There's a big push by right wingers to create a rift between AOC and the rest of Dem's, incl NYPost putting out a 3 year old video w talk about Hillary (which I thought was fair and respectful), along with blowing up Whoopi's anger (vs the careful tone and message AOC used). And there's nothing wrong with AIC backing "Justice Democrats" with values sh upholds, as long as she's not too much a prick about it (even if one of the opponents is, gasp Black/member of the CBC). (Don't know who's supposed to be primarying Pelosi)

    Coronoavirus seems pretty invincible, but outside of ground zero you realize the numbers are pretty small and containable, with the treatment pretty straightforward. It's the panic that's to be avoided.

    [This has been a barely shrouded analogy from your administrator]

    Radio Free Tom, like Rick, highlights the story about Bloomberg doing oppo campaign against Bernie:

    Not an op-ed, from the Politics section. By Sydney Embers & Nate Cohn (the other Nate's main competitor)

    Myth vs reality?

    amazing chutzpah to harass him, times have certainly changed. I read the original article and my reaction was: how clueless can you be to be on a campaign staff and to not think someone wouldn't leak that really nasty high school shit like that little private group was talking. If they had a decent mom they'd not only hang their heads in shame but she'd wash their mouths out with soap. I mean, really, I've heard gays talk that kind of game, but they only would dare do it in a dive bar. There are supporters who think it is going to help someone, or something to now attack the reporter? More insane and childish than Trump. Bernie best be getting more grownups around stat!

    joe says

    If you don't his background, he's neo-con beltway/swamp guy, still GOP, used ta be head of speechwriting and also a policy advisor for Geo. W. Bush:


    "Kos", aka commandant Markos his very self, Monday @ Daily Kos: We need to find a consensus candidate

    from Sunday poll, day after Nevada:

    Reuters/Ipsos confirms! Among African Americans, Sanders surpasses Biden:


    Hey Bernie bros:He is stuck splaining past statements, but guess what, DOH! you don't have to go there, you maybe can even "play politics", ey?


    Like it or not, down-but-not-out Uncle Joe clearly has this thing:

    An interesting dynamic from this CNN town hall with @JoeBiden: so far, two questioners have told Biden he won their votes tonight.

    — Molly Nagle (@MollyNagle3) February 27, 2020

    Democrats will make their own choices in this year’s primary, but this right here is as genuine of a moment as I’ve seen in my political life. Watch the entire thing.

    — Nicolle Wallace (@NicolleDWallace) February 27, 2020

    Normally hard-bitten cynical Laura Rozen retreated these two:

    A profoundly moving response from Biden.

    — Catherine Rampell (@crampell) February 27, 2020

    For neo-liberals, use any slur handy for Bernie:

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