Coming February 6, 2024 . . .
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Pre-order at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
Coming February 6, 2024 . . . MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Pre-order at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
VIEWER’S GUIDE for how to interpret results on Tuesday night: It’s gonna look different this time, and that’s OK! States count early and E-Day votes differently. Expect red-to-blue shifts in PA, WI, MI, MN. Expect blue-to-red shifts in FL, NC, TX, OH, IA. https://t.co/wYqKwEbBvR
— Marshall Cohen (@MarshallCohen) October 30, 2020
There's still a possibility of a stolen election: on election night Trump still ahead in states that haven't yet counted mail-in ballots, and a partisan Supreme Court finds some excuse to stop the counting. 2/
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 30, 2020
Breaking: Texas just surpassed its 2016 total votes cast w/ one day of early voting & Election Day left to go.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 30, 2020
The state is reporting 9,009,850 votes already cast, vs. the all-time record of 8,969,226 in 2016. This is massive.
The intra-Palestinian meeting in Moscow has precedent
— Hanna Notte (@HannaNotte) February 29, 2024
Russia's hosted such meetings in the past, most recently Feb 2019
Russia has long lamented the US' "monopolization" of the peace process & tried to carve out a niche for itself: mediating among the disunited Palestinians/2
Here's what I told them: https://halginsberg.com/vote-for-jill-stein-again/
Controversial Brazil law curbing Indigenous rights comes into force https://t.co/pCoDg05irX
— Gareth Harris (@garethharr) December 28, 2023
Location: U.S. Embassy and residential compounds
Events: Heavy gunfire is occuring around the area of the U.S. Embassy and residential compounds adjacent to the Trutier area of Tabarre. All Embassy personnel have been instructed to remain indoors and shelter-in-place until further notice. All others should avoid the area.
Actions to take:
- Avoid the area;
- Avoid demonstrations and any large gatherings of people;
- Do not attempt to drive through roadblocks; and
- If you encounter a roadblock, turn around and get to a safe area.
By The Editorial Board @ Bloomberg.com, December 8, 2023
A mass expulsion of Afghan migrants could destabilize the region and fuel radicalization. The West should pressure Islamabad to change course.
All eyes on #Chad right now
Chad has two internet trunks coming into the country: One from the Red Sea via Sudan; the other from Cameroon. Not possible for the totality of the country's internet network to be shut unless done centrally. A lot of rumors swirling; few facts. https://t.co/N6bDJZ2ixO
BREAKING: Three loss prevention employees in Macy’s across the street from Philadelphia City Hall stabbed, one of them has died from stab wounds, @PhillyPolice sources tell me. Police converged on the store as the three workers were rushed to Jefferson Hospital. pic.twitter.com/4U1eKycL4W
Former US Ambassador Arrested, Charged With Working As Secret Agent For Cuba https://t.co/LDwo4ZJI1K
— HuffPost (@HuffPost) December 4, 2023
[Chapter I news is HERE, Oct. 7 til today]
You don’t get it.
— George Deek (@GeorgeDeek) December 2, 2023
It’s not about an UNRWA teacher who held an Israeli kid hostage in his house.
It’s all about how for 75 years you have destroyed the future of generations of Palestinians, including my family.
My cousins in Arab countries are still not citizens - not even the… https://t.co/nv6anubGhc
Note 'Community Notes' attached to UNWRA's statement.
Imperialism for me but not for thee?
It's wild that Venezuela is now holding a vote on whether 2/3 of Guyana actually belongs to them! Analysts suggest that Modoru may want military action to pump up his sinking popularity.
Could we have a war in South America?!?
"The people who live in Essequibo are largely… pic.twitter.com/QvMEjkkgwy
The lack of a cohesive delegation has allowed attention-seeking lawmakers to act on their own.
McCarthy: “You have [Rep. Matt] Gaetz, who belongs in jail…”
Gaetz: “Tough words from a guy who sucker punches people in the back. The only assault I committed was against Kevin’s fragile ego.”https://t.co/LctPuz6Pcf
By Martinn Pengelly in Washington DC for TheGuardian.com, Nov. 30
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tells Ryan Grim life in Congress ‘completely transformed’ after Democratic leader stepped down
"Both the AU and the intl community place more weight on whether elections are held than whether they are free and fair. Sanctions/expulsions occur when there is a coup but not necessarily when elections are rigged or if an “institutional coup” occurs." https://t.co/m9dNimJP0D
— Cameron Hudson (@_hudsonc) November 28, 2023
Copyright © 2018 dagblog. All rights reserved.
Comments
The Charlie Cook prediction is comforting as far as nationwide results.
I find the Texas thing really interesting, as maybe with higher turnout we finally will get to know what they really are made of. I suspect Texas is stranger than conventional wisdom might make it out to be, maybe more like Florida. We are always given this image of lots of Hispanics there not voting for various reasons and everyone presumes they would be true blue if they did. Maybe not? I.E., Perhaps usual non-voters there end up not liking Trump much, they may still like conservative as far as other races? What if after all the effort to GOTV, it doesn't turn out to be as Dem as the GOTV people expected?
Edit to add: I see I skipped over the prediction in your Marshall Cohen tweet as well Expect blue-to-red shifts in FL, NC, TX, OH, IA.
by artappraiser on Fri, 10/30/2020 - 2:43pm
More like Charlie Cook said:
by artappraiser on Fri, 10/30/2020 - 10:50pm
Drumpf becoming a night owl like me, stable genius brainstorming at 3 am, this will scare them to come out and vote for me:
Of note, big picture: this is not a traditional organized way to do GOTV. No campaign advisors for him, he's got Twitter.
by artappraiser on Fri, 10/30/2020 - 2:39pm
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 10/30/2020 - 3:43pm
Reid Epstein reporting direct from Little Chute, Wisconsin, right in the thick of cheesehead, none of that big city stuff like Appleton or Green Bay for him...
by artappraiser on Fri, 10/30/2020 - 7:26pm
lots of important news at their Live Updates but Karni's intro is the best one:
by artappraiser on Fri, 10/30/2020 - 10:00pm
by artappraiser on Fri, 10/30/2020 - 10:22pm
This looks to me like some young out-of-work performers in LA selling out to gigs doing retro street disco for Trump campaign? (But in NYC we are canceling the similar Macy's Parade-no jobs here for Trump or anyone else)
by artappraiser on Sat, 10/31/2020 - 12:32am
by artappraiser on Sat, 10/31/2020 - 12:53pm
Signs of desperate Dem tactics in Florida, heh:
by artappraiser on Sat, 10/31/2020 - 12:57pm
oh look, what a coincidence-NOT, who has recorded a show to play tonight hanging out at a metaphorical barbershop to shoot the breeze with NBA bigwigs about voting
he also tweeted this
by artappraiser on Sat, 10/31/2020 - 1:13pm
Gosh, Lincoln Project's on topic, too--they must all have the same last minute stats that this demo could be crucial in some swing states and districts:
by artappraiser on Sat, 10/31/2020 - 1:20pm
some interesting related comments I've run across:
It is true that pro-Trump twitter has been heavily pushing the young black male vote story for a couple days, spinning that Trump is winning it over, i.e., Breitbart, Fox News, like that.
As this guy points out, this story at The Root isn't helping the situation, just adds to the buzz:
I suspect bigwigs like Obama and The Lincoln Project have gotten involved, though, not because of how the majority vote blue but because capturing some of the strayers could turn the tide in places like Miami for Florida and Milwaukee for Wisconsin
by artappraiser on Sat, 10/31/2020 - 1:48pm
yup, a big focus of both campaigns has turned to black males in the battleground states; battlegrounds are so close that just those few numbers will make a diff:
Everyone goes "who are these undecided voters?". Well, there's one answer.
by artappraiser on Sat, 10/31/2020 - 11:55pm
she's a liberal, anti-Trump, a feminist Erika Stallings @quidditch424 Attorney, BRCA awareness advocate. Words in NYT Opinion, NPR, O Magazine, ZORA, Huffington Post, Washington Post and others. Contact: [email protected] erikastallings.com Joined March 2009
Here's the rest
by artappraiser on Sun, 11/01/2020 - 12:44am
Trump abuses food aid
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/30/trump-food-box-letters-election...
by PeraclesPlease on Sat, 10/31/2020 - 4:31pm
by artappraiser on Sat, 10/31/2020 - 4:38pm
I suspect that, similar to what The Lincoln Project does, Obama is doing the ridicule thing so that Joe can stay on positive message and not get stuck playing games with the troll:
by artappraiser on Sat, 10/31/2020 - 5:17pm
Catholic Trump fatigue
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/30/trump-catholic-support-2020-ele...
by PeraclesPlease on Sat, 10/31/2020 - 10:56pm
Maggie Haberman retweeted (hoping for a new gig soon?)
by artappraiser on Sun, 11/01/2020 - 12:57am
by artappraiser on Sun, 11/01/2020 - 1:02am
With this latest news, I am increasingly willing to believe what Bauer said. The Dems do seem to have the best lawyers and are handling all the problems:
What I am seeing is everyone gets all het up about every instance of GOP trouble, but it gets challenged and rectified real quick. Ends up reading a lot of stories that end up much ado about nothing. Not that people shouldn't report it ASAP, they should--that's why Obama and others have put up those phone numbers to call-but Dems have a big army working on every report and fighting right away. Dems seem to have an exceptional force ready to meet any contingency. Seems to be the opposite of the Gore/Bush election where conservatives working to steal the election and were on top of everything and the Gore team was always behind the eight ball. GOP efforts to discourage and screw up voting seem haphazard and wacky, and the Dem team has gone 100 ways to Sunday to have contingencies for what they might do.
by artappraiser on Sun, 11/01/2020 - 3:16pm
by artappraiser on Sun, 11/01/2020 - 6:10pm
by artappraiser on Sun, 11/01/2020 - 6:11pm
Trump ready to flee?
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 8:08am
Bill Scher on polls - awfully stable &consistent, unlike 2016
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/11/02/biden_will_win_rep...
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 2:51pm
'You are no longer my mother': How the election is dividing Americans
Twitter has taken this Reuters story and given it a "special event" url, so they are probably seeing a lot of retweets of it with a multitude of "MeToo" comments containing angst and gnashing of teeth rending of garments etc. Sometimes their algorithms are like a thermometer for fevers within the nation
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 3:10pm
Fortunately Covid will clean up the mess.
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 4:24pm
AAARGH, NATE SILVER!
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 3:14pm
^^^ just noticed now, IT'S BOTH NATES! Silver is replying to Cohn, basically confirming Cohn's own NYT article that We'll see you in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina tomorrow night
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 3:18pm
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 4:45pm
Obama is stumping in Miami:
hits me that he's the ideal one to send to a multi-culti cauldron like that! where there's also a lot of quirky special interest groups and more divisiveness by ethnicity than by race or class
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 6:23pm
(Reed Galen of Lincoln Project retweeted)
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 6:27pm
great question:
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 6:43pm
strikes me as the correct way to address those suckers, mano a mano:
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 7:35pm
co-authored WaPo op-ed by Obama's A.G. Holder and Bush's A.G. Mukasey:
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 6:55pm
Dan Rather recommends we read Charlie Cook's essay on the Trump campaign's six faulty assumptions:
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 7:21pm
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 7:44pm
How Long Will Vote Counting Take? Estimates and Deadlines in All 50 States
By Alicia Parlapiano @ NYTimes.com/Upshot, Updated Nov. 2,
has updated interactive chart with each state and particulars including whether Solid D, Solid R or Tossup and things like how many days after postmark for mail ballots
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/02/2020 - 7:54pm
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/03/2020 - 12:16am
very brave lady with an endorsement for Biden:
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/03/2020 - 12:28am
Nate Silver's probability numbers hot off the press:
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/03/2020 - 12:55am
"Sullivan closing out today added that when he saw an astronaut had voted from space he thought there must be something Congress could do to be "tinkering with the system" so everyone can vote just as seamlessly."
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 11/03/2020 - 1:31am
The absentee ballot that NY State sent me after I requested vote-by-mail said on the front of it: "Official Absentee Military Ballot". I am wondering now if they used those on purpose anticipating these issues. I think those have special privileges? Admit it could just be NY incompetence as well, which I have come to expect.
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/03/2020 - 1:43am
USPS may biff it anyway
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5fa0a3e7c5b67617e64a5cfd
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 11/03/2020 - 4:02am
Gov. Tom Ridge to PA undecideds:
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/03/2020 - 1:50am
p.s. perhaps Ridge added "be patient while votes are counted" as a counter to this news:
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/03/2020 - 1:53am
Here is a typical Wisconsin version of whypipple. Politics is not personal there. They don't approve of crime of any kind and they don't like violence. They prize civility and dislike anger (except ranting on talk radio, then it's ok.) This is why I was so worried about how the violent unrest in Wauwatosa and Kenosha would affect how people voted:
US election: Trump supporter replaces neighbour's stolen Biden sign @ BBC News
Tim Place is one of the few Joe Biden voters in his Wisconsin neighbourhood. When his Biden-Harris sign was stolen, he got some unexpected help - from a Trump-supporting neighbour.
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/03/2020 - 3:17am
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 11/03/2020 - 3:34am
538 final: easy House, 3/4 chance to flip Senate (yet complex, a myriad of possible outcomes and seat margins), and overall a stable very good chance that Biden wins, though a very real 1/10 chance Biden loses or ends in a tie.
Note that extreme early voting blows away any chance _likely voters" don't show up - a vote cast is already banked, unlike 2016 where much less early voting (vote theft and ballot disqualification aches still if concern, but Democrats seem pretty well prepared to contest any issues and actually mobilize, unlike prior elections). This time there are far fewer undecided voters, so it's really about GOTV and voter/vote repression or disqualification - which again matters less with those who already voted. Presumably no butterfly ballot/hanging Chad (poor Chad) probs this year, but electronic voting can have glitches and/or be hacked.
Oh, yes, presumably all this excitement and extraordinary turnout affects state level races, which might change Dem's fortunes somewhat in the legislatures and state courts, though as Gerald Ford wisely said, "No Instant Miracles". Oh wait, that was people flipping his WIN buttons - "Whip Inflation Now" - upside down. Naughty people.
BTW, anyone seen that ratf*cker Roger Stone? He's been behind 2 coups, worth considering his 3rd attempt.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-senate-forecast/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-fo...
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 11/03/2020 - 6:04am