On ranked choice voting experiment in NYC mayoral primary (election ends June 22)

By artappraiser on Sat, 06/19/2021 - 4:13pm |

This is pretty clearly a smart move for both Garcia and Yang. Also arguably a flaw in ranked choice voting that these sorts of strategic alliances can matter. https://t.co/SXZT5Gbygj
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 19, 2021

URL:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1406286034288140306?s=20

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Although Yang and Garcia are *somewhat* ideologically compatible, this is likely much more of a tactical decision: RCV gives the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place candidates (Garcia, Yang, Wiley in some order) a lot of incentive to coordinate against the 1st place candidate (Adams). https://t.co/x8AIO8NT57
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 19, 2021

So it's still zero sum: Garcia and Yang are improving their chances by weakening Adams's and Wiley's.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 19, 2021

by artappraiser on Sat, 06/19/2021 - 4:16pm

I think “BIPOC” or “URM” is how you’re supposed to execute the ~Asians don’t count~ move but part of Adams’ brand is he talks like a normal person. https://t.co/bfiJWbKH8z
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) June 19, 2021

For the record, if I lived in New York I would rank Garcia #1 because she seems like a competent person who will do a good job.

Since I don’t, my main actual rooting interest in the election is that Adams winning is best for takes.

Yang a solid #2 either way.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) June 19, 2021

by artappraiser on Sat, 06/19/2021 - 4:19pm

In San Francisco we also have politics without the benefit of party structures to organize the choice set, and a ranked choice voting system for several years. It has worked well. https://t.co/hIYS8kqYl5
— RonSupportsYou (@RonSupportsYou) June 19, 2021

In Montreal what they have are several city-specific political parties that are organized around local issues, separate from the provincial Québec parties which in turn are separate from the federal party. pic.twitter.com/bmlFTt7sk7
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) June 19, 2021

by artappraiser on Sat, 06/19/2021 - 7:00pm

BTW, Eric Adams did this just before Yang and Garcia ganged up; they are all playing hardball, as that particular shooting video was the "talk of the town":

Eric Adams offers own cash reward in broad-daylight sidewalk shooting https://t.co/YTQTMkE95s via @MailOnline
— Pavulous (@pavulous) June 20, 2021

by artappraiser on Sun, 06/20/2021 - 4:11pm

uh oh:

A regular volunteer working for Eric Adams was stabbed in the deep South Bronx with, among other things, an ice pick. https://t.co/ZmD7Gt44XZ
— Crime in NYC (@CrimeInNYC) June 20, 2021

The victim, 42, was stabbed four times and it was caught on video, police sources say. Taken to Lincoln Hospital, stable. https://t.co/HVPLvHE9vR
— Myles N. Miller (@MylesMill) June 20, 2021

by artappraiser on Sun, 06/20/2021 - 5:47pm

Adams’ camp ramping up the rhetoric on the Yang/Garcia coalition, talking about RCV manipulation, voter suppression, an attempt to disenfranchise Black voters and steal an election. @RepGregoryMeeks @rubendiazjr @ydanis @cmlauriecumbo https://t.co/HP7shVYi4S pic.twitter.com/YzCr3h3Uaa
— Juan Manuel Benítez (@JuanMaBenitez) June 20, 2021

by artappraiser on Sun, 06/20/2021 - 7:54pm

NEW: the NYC mayoral primary
marks the end of an extraordinary chapter and the start of another, an inflection point that will play a defining role in shaping the post-pandemic future of NYC. Our Sunday story on how we got here and the fluid state of play https://t.co/Sf1okB7IiR
— Katie Glueck (@katieglueck) June 20, 2021

This is Garcia’s advantage on the UWS and other high-info, highly educated areas. Does that translate citywide? https://t.co/Sf1okB7IiR pic.twitter.com/I3iXLuvvWD
— Katie Glueck (@katieglueck) June 20, 2021

Adams faces mounting scrutiny;controversies could take toll in the homestretch. If he wins it will be in part because of significant institutional advantages — but also because his message connects at a visceral level in some neighborhoods across the city. https://t.co/Sf1okB7IiR pic.twitter.com/PUjKRy6V6z
— Katie Glueck (@katieglueck) June 20, 2021

headed into Primary Day, Adams is considered a fragile front-runner, with Wiley&Garcia demonstrating late-breaking strength & Yang remaining a serious contender despite some signs of stalling momentum. but with RCV, race remains wildly unpredictablehttps://t.co/2y8fItt40Q
— Katie Glueck (@katieglueck) June 20, 2021

by artappraiser on Sun, 06/20/2021 - 10:37pm

^ "UWS" stands for Upper West Side of Manhattan, that is stereotypically considered educated upper upper middle class lefty land, the socialists with mon-ay and prestige jobs (but definitely not Wall St., that's with the wealthy and repectable celebs across the park on the "UES", zip 10021. BTW, new techie weatlh is traditionally not there but "downtown" in one of the newest rich nabes in the country, Tribeca.) And all of these Manhattan people in numbers pale in a situation like voting, or you see them on teevee, because they are a small minority compared to the entire NYC population of teeming masses yearning to breathe free, as it were.

by artappraiser on Sun, 06/20/2021 - 10:46pm

I'm so glad Central Park functions as a multidimensional Mason-Dixon line of sorts...

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 06/21/2021 - 1:34am

telling points from press conference this morning:

Yang really bragging about this police captains union endorsement, "Eric Adams' old union."

"Think about what that says about this person, their character," Yang says, referring to Adams
— Ross Barkan (@RossBarkan) June 21, 2021

It's still striking Andrew Yang basically morphed into a quality-of-life candidate. Nothing in his stump speech about cash relief, the public bank
— Ross Barkan (@RossBarkan) June 21, 2021

by artappraiser on Mon, 06/21/2021 - 9:56am

George Floyd's brother backs ex-cop Eric Adams for NYC mayor https://t.co/xKwMO3WG3t
— Michael Moore (@mooreski42) June 16, 2021

by artappraiser on Mon, 06/21/2021 - 2:17pm

Maya Wiley states that she still supports Ranked Choice voting after the Garcia/Yang teamup and Kathyrn Garcia thanks her for the stance:

I want to thank Maya for standing up for Rank Choice Voting. Throughout this campaign she has never hesitated to fight for what she believes in. At every debate and every turn of this historic race it’s been an honor to share the stage with other strong women. https://t.co/GpZiBGQTbR
— Kathryn Garcia (@KGforNYC) June 21, 2021

by artappraiser on Mon, 06/21/2021 - 2:27pm

Eric Adams, on the other hand, is doing the attack thing:

One of the ugliest days-before-primary day in recent memory in NYC https://t.co/KcvJxcjRMu
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) June 21, 2021

by artappraiser on Mon, 06/21/2021 - 2:32pm

and

Yang on Adams today: “Imagine an administration that is led by someone who cuts corners and breaks rules and is constantly under investigation and then attacks whenever he’s criticized and then invokes race as the rationale for any criticism that’s directed toward him." https://t.co/hqWU3UzHAX
— Emma G. Fitzsimmons (@emmagf) June 21, 2021

by artappraiser on Mon, 06/21/2021 - 2:38pm

The headline obscures the more interesting part of this piece: Gelinas argues that progressives should, at this point, hope a moderate wins and reduces crime, because when crime is high, the public focuses on it exclusively and has a lower appetite for progressive priorities. https://t.co/OU4VCnbNAu
— Daniel Marans (@danielmarans) June 21, 2021

by artappraiser on Mon, 06/21/2021 - 2:37pm

Yang predicts Yang behavior:

My unexamined, evidence-free priors tell me that Yang nosedived soon after apologizing for the Israel thing (suggesting inability to withstand heat from left activists) and may rebound because of homeless comments (suggesting no fear of heat from left activists)
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) June 21, 2021

Andrew Yang doubles down on his debate comments:
"We all see these mentally ill people on our streets and subways, and you know who else sees them? Tourists. And then they don’t come back, and they tell their friends, ‘Don’t go to New York City.’” https://t.co/0rwphjOmix
— Emma G. Fitzsimmons (@emmagf) June 21, 2021

I noticed the Wesley comment as soon as he made it and bookmarked it because there was just something about it that caught the way most NYC voters are. That they like someone feisty in executive positions who doesn't pander to the politically correct but like "tells it like it is."

To outsiders, it's sort of related to what they might think of "New York rudeness"

I think of all the mayors since Koch and bluntness like this is the one commonality. Even relatively soft-spoken Dinkins would strongly disagree in public at times, basically saying "but that's crazy" It doesn't even have to be a popular opinion (i.e. big gulp sodas and Bloomberg), the point is someone who is willing to put their foot down about something, not be wishy washy.

In this case, I bet they did a quick overnight poll on it and found it went well with exactly the kind of voters he needs.

Probably won't help Andrew enough but it's interesting that he's doubling down on it today rather than making excuses because there was lots of criticism.

by artappraiser on Mon, 06/21/2021 - 6:51pm

interesting:

Maya Wiley criticized remarks from Eric Adams, a fellow candidate for New York City mayor, who baselessly claimed that an alliance between Kathryn Garcia and Andrew Yang amounted to voter suppression. “This partnership is not racist," she said. https://t.co/IkaFR8M2Bb
— The New York Times (@nytimes) June 21, 2021

obviously going for the "I'm a uniter, not a divider" thing here:

I got a really really really big team.

A #1 vote for Maya Wiley is a vote for ALL of us. All of our coalition leaders, all of our communities, ALL of New York. Don’t take it from me - take it from them. pic.twitter.com/L7ih7Fetou
— Maya Wiley (@mayawiley) June 22, 2021

by artappraiser on Tue, 06/22/2021 - 12:44pm

another interesting-this highlights that there is always some tension between the yuppie influx (or in past times, hipster or hippie influx) from across the nation into Manhattan and fashionable parts of Brooklyn and the borough people who are the majority population and include most of the working class that actually runs the whole city including Manhattan. Adams clearly is representative of the latter. Guy from Illinois actually very astute, understood the situation, actually got the message as intended

He wasn't from Iowa, the state @ericadamsfornyc had told gentrifiers to "go back" to, but one New Yorker By Choice, from Illinois, wanted to know: If Adams won, would he be his mayor too?
From @JeffCMays, on top of all things Adams from Day One:
https://t.co/tw12BfcZwD
— Anne Barnard (@ABarnardNYT) June 22, 2021

which is basically: you may not know it, but you are the second class citizen here-the plumber from Queens that fixes your boiler in the winter so you have heat and the guy from Afghanistan who sells you your lunch from a food truck, and yes, the cops who police your subway and write parking tickets so that Manhattan can actually move and function, they are the first class citizens. We all pretend otherwise, but white-collar Manhattan could not exist without the borough people.

It is not necessarily the future of the city, though! Could be just history!

by artappraiser on Tue, 06/22/2021 - 6:42pm

Very clear political battle lines tonight. Adams won Black and Hispanic voters in the outer boroughs. Wiley won Brooklyn/Queens hipsters. Garcia won Manhattan elites. And Yang won Asian and Orthodox Jewish/ethnic white areas of Brooklyn. Map by @cinyc9. pic.twitter.com/nnY3Q2JE7l
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) June 23, 2021

And here's why Garcia will make up ground with absentee ballots. The (affluent, white) areas that voted absentee in 2020 overlap neatly with her base areas tonight. https://t.co/8Wr2BLvjm9 pic.twitter.com/VDcYdhKtwy
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) June 23, 2021

There are maps of who came in 2nd and 3rd place in 1st preferences buried under Menu-->Mayor D-->More-->2nd/3rd. I'm too busy updating the map to take a photo, but Wiley came in 2nd in 1sts in a lot of places, while 3rd is more mixed.

Assuming I didn't mess up a formula.
— cinyc (@cinyc9) June 23, 2021

@CurrentCitizen are the White ethnic areas Italian and the Asian areas Chinese?
— Nemets (@Peter_Nimitz) June 23, 2021

Flushing in Queens is incredibly Chinese; while I believe the ethnic white areas in Brooklyn are more Russian/Polish. Italians more prevalent around Staten Island and Nassau
— Publey (@PubleyPolitics) June 23, 2021

What is what?!?!?! Can someone post an actual link to this picture?
— Dr. Gustav Sundell (@gsundell) June 23, 2021

https://t.co/JmV8Sy9R3v
— cinyc (@cinyc9) June 23, 2021

I assume Adams is blue, Wiley is pink, Garcia is yellow, and Yang is orange?
— Phillip Wu (@phillip_wu) June 23, 2021

Correct.

Stringer is light blue, but he didn't win much.
— cinyc (@cinyc9) June 23, 2021

I'll take credit for this map, unlike the @CNalysis one.

How close are we to done counting for the night? Unfortunately, the live map doesn't totally update itself. There are a few manual steps that require I don't go to bed quite yet.
— cinyc (@cinyc9) June 23, 2021

(replies to above not posted)

Current NYC Mayor results (738k votes counted):

Adams 31.05%
Wiley 21.98%
Garcia 20.05%
Yang 11.68%

Based on turnout estimates (@PredictIt currently estimates about 900k), it seems >50% of the remaining votes may be absentees - these could give Garcia a limited boost.
— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) June 23, 2021

There's been a limited number of polls with an Adams vs. Wiley final round matchup, but they actually have *Adams* gaining an average of 4 points vs. the first round.

Data for Progress: Adams +5 -> Adams +8
Citizen Data: Adams +14 -> Adams +12
Emerson: Adams +6 -> Adams +18
— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) June 23, 2021

With a first-past-the-post primary and the current results (Adams 31% Wiley 22% Garcia 20%), we might have gotten hot takes about how Adams only won because Wiley/Garcia split the vote.

But with ranked choice voting, we can see what actually happens in a head-to-head matchup!
— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) June 23, 2021

I think what we'll find is that 'lanes theory' only goes so far in explaining voter preferences in multi-candidate primaries.

Yes, there will be overlap between the Garcia/Wiley camps.

But a substantial number of voters will be Garcia > Adams > Wiley or Wiley > Adams > Garcia.
— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) June 23, 2021

by artappraiser on Wed, 06/23/2021 - 12:58am

can't find any truth to the rumor that Andrew Yang's campaign paid this lady to be a victim, it just really happened:

A tourist from Colombia describes being attacked on a Queens-bound E train Monday evening. https://t.co/5cocGJVA5M
— Crime in NYC (@CrimeInNYC) June 22, 2021

Psst.: Flyover might not like tourists but NYC actually funds itself with them. Rudeness is part of the local culture to explore but bashing with bottles by mentally ill roaming allover the city is a step too far over the line.

by artappraiser on Wed, 06/23/2021 - 2:42am

The homeless have taken their toll on San Francisco too, and to a lesser extent LA.

by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 06/23/2021 - 3:47am

H/t to @DataProgress for getting both mayor & comptroller races right: Adams leads for NYC mayor, Wiley, Garcia battle for second in last-minute poll https://t.co/fKTor3o3yl via @nypost
— Michael Benjamin (@SquarePegDem) June 23, 2021

here's my stereotypical generalizations after looking at all of this stuff:

Adams is an anti-elite populist appealing to the borough people In that mode he could actually get quite a few Republican votes as well, like from whites on Staten Island.

Wiley is now labeled The Woke candidate whether she intended to do that or not, that's where she is now. AOC's endorsement solidified that, she appeals to the stereotypical UWS lefty and Brooklyn hipsters and lefty activisits.

Garcia is actually the competent manager ala Bloomberg and appeals to the rational Democrats of wealthy districts including the UES and rational educated elite people who live in lefty elite areas but are not fans of woke

But if Adams does too much populist pandering with outrageous comments on any matter, he will look less and less like someone who can actually govern this mess of a city and more like Trump, and he will start losing support. He has to look like a moderate grownup dad from now on. If he stumbles on that, his more moderate voters would go to Garcia and his more left voters would go to Wiley.

by artappraiser on Wed, 06/23/2021 - 1:34pm

p.,s. interesting wild card not enough pundits are discussing: Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels, and long time talk show host, famous as an anti-crime activist, is going to be the Republican candidate. He probably knows Adams demographic better than Adams does, he is of them, he has always spoken for them, he talks working class patois. He is both far more populist and knows better how to rile and at the same time is even far less competent to run a huge business like NYC. Sliwa is like the extremist version of Adams, and possibly also will be seen as far more understanding of working class p.o.c. But someone like Garcia could easily make him look like an idiot who had reached way beyond his competence level. I honestly don't know if Adams could, haven't seen enough of him doing the serious manager thing, don't know much about his record handling practical things as Brooklyn boro pres.

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/primary-day-2021-curtis-sliwa-wins-republican-mayoral-primary

edit to add:complicating things Sliwa has a "sensitive socially liberal" side (similar to what Guiliani used to have), caring about individuals, the proper role of macho male as protector thing-he has always genuinely been like that, is why he founded "The Guardian Angels." Example now is, I saw the other day he just announced support for a no kill law in NYC for shelter animals.

by artappraiser on Wed, 06/23/2021 - 1:58pm

p.p.s. I see Curtis' tweet today is railing against the big bureaucracy, public and private, and that is no minor complaint when it comes to any NYC voter:

My campaign for #NYCMayor is one for ALL New Yorkers

Eliminate property tax loopholes for wealthy corp’s (MSG) & universities (Columbia & NYU)

Restore public safety

Create a Right to Business program so ALL people can get into business

Fund students, not bureaucracy
— Curtis Sliwa for NYC Mayor (@CurtisSliwa) June 23, 2021

edit to add these replies so far are quite telling:

Fund Tenants. Not NYCHA.
— Josh Eisen (@JoshEisen17) June 23, 2021

(NYCHA is the hopelessly messed up NYC public housing system)

and this is a winner for sure, any animal lover or pet owner cares more about them than people:

And “No Kill Animal Shelters”........correct?
— Ed (@ETK276) June 23, 2021

and just a high five, people do think of him that way, as just another guy, approachable:

you got this Curtis!!!
— elite (@elite65736152) June 23, 2021

by artappraiser on Wed, 06/23/2021 - 2:21pm

things are working out differently way on the other side of the state in Buffalo:

India Walton, a socialist candidate, is poised to beat Buffalo’s incumbent Democratic mayor. The primary upset would upend the political landscape in New York’s second-biggest city and make her its first female mayor. https://t.co/93GVsmdH8r
— The New York Times (@nytimes) June 23, 2021

I note from the article

Mr. Brown, 62, did not campaign vigorously, according to his opponents, and he refused to debate Ms. Walton. He has appeared regularly with Mr. Cuomo at the governor’s news conferences in Western New York to promote the state’s economic reopening.

and

"This victory is ours.

It is the first of many.

If you are in an elected office right now, you are being put on notice.

We are coming."@Indiawaltonbflo declares victory pic.twitter.com/Z1cBjhGWau
— People for Bernie (@People4Bernie) June 23, 2021

by artappraiser on Wed, 06/23/2021 - 3:12pm

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Events: Heavy gunfire is occuring around the area of the U.S. Embassy and residential compounds adjacent to the Trutier area of Tabarre. All Embassy personnel have been instructed to remain indoors and shelter-in-place until further notice. All others should avoid the area.

Actions to take:

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You don’t get it.
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