Cook Political Report thinks the only hope Dems have to keep the House in 2022 lies in redrawing NY and IL districts properly!!!

Dems' House hopes hang on two states

By Stef W. Kight @ Axios.com, 2 hrs. ago

The Democrats' “only chance of keeping the House” next year is if they redraw congressional lines to their advantage in New York and Illinois, Cook Political Report's David Wasserman tells Axios.

Why it matters: The GOP is already poised to take advantage of its control of map-drawing in more states than Democrats. But Democrats have a chance to eliminate as many as seven Republican House seats in just New York and Illinois through redistricting in states they control.

• New York and Illinois are both set to lose a House seat because of slower population growth.
• On top of ensuring Republican districts are the ones lost to reapportionment this year, Democrats could rework the maps to help them pick up an additional four districts in New York and one in Illinois, said Wasserman, who focuses on redistricting as Cook's House editor

The big picture: Republicans will get to draw congressional district lines in big battleground states like Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida. They were able to draw maps to maximize their partisan advantage after the 2010 census, too.

• "The two states that Democrats control that are big, or where there's margin left, are New York and Illinois," Ben Williams, a nonpartisan redistricting specialist for the National Conference of State Legislatures, told Axios.
• Few other states offer options to create new, blue congressional districts, he and Wasserman said.
• "Just by correcting the horrors of what the Republicans have done will be an advantage," New York State Senate Deputy Majority Leader Michael Gianaris, a top Democrat on redistricting, told Axios. "If we do it fairly, we're going to gain seats."

What they're saying: Despite the Democratic hopes, there are checks on blatant partisan gerrymandering — especially in New York, said Kelly Ward Burton, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee [....]

great point that presents a wild card for red areas via hyperbole:

though clearly all the unvaxed are not all going to die, maybe the resulting medical bills and continuing lack of peak health to perform adequately might change some minds...

A reminder from November that Democrats did not win hardly anything, they lost seats.Only Mr. BI-partisan Biden won, plus a few rare cases like the statehouses in AZ. Time to stop thinking delusionary like they did just because Biden won. Georgia Senate runoffs were won only because there were messages like this

and people in the party like Clyburn yelling STFU with the defund and socialism works aready, until it's over.

update Nov. 4, ALAS

Some Suburban Strongholds Swing Back to G.O.P. in N.Y. and Across U.S.

Republicans are ahead in key congressional races in New York State, mirroring a national trend of apparent success in winning back swing districts.

By Emma G. Fitzsimmons @ NYTimes.com, Nov. 4, 2020 Updated 7:38 p.m. ET

Heading into Election Day, Democrats in New York had high hopes across the ballot, with three House races targeted in a national “Red to Blue” campaign.

But by Wednesday morning, those hopes were greatly dimmed: The three Democratic candidates, all women, were far behind after the initial machine count of ballots.

Elsewhere in the state, two first-term Democratic congressmen, Max Rose and Anthony Brindisi, were in danger of losing their seats; just two years earlier, they had been hailed by their party as trailblazers who prevailed in districts traditionally held by Republicans.

And in the State Capitol, where Democrats harbored visions of a supermajority in the State Senate, the party seemed far from that goal and may even cede ground.

With more than one million mail-in ballots still to be counted in the state, final results were far from certain in many races. But the preliminary vote totals seemed to reflect a resurgence of Republican power in the New York suburbs, where at one time some Long Island towns were among the party’s biggest strongholds in the country.

The Republican hold seemed to wane in 2018, with Democrats taking seats in New York and similar suburban districts in other states. But on Tuesday, the tide seemed to turn back again, reflecting the Republicans’ success at ousting House incumbents in swing districts across the country.

That trend was mirrored nationally in results from statehouses, with the lowest number of chambers slated to change hands in more than half a century. While Democrats won both legislative houses in Arizona, they lost the House and Senate in New Hampshire.

While some Republican candidates sought to distance themselves from President Trump, whose popularity was thought to be waning, they still clung to a Trump-like law-and-order message.

They tied Democratic candidates to defunding the police and progressive radicalism in the party, a strategy that seemed to work in many parts of the nation, as Republicans sought to maintain control of the Senate and claw back some House seats.[....]

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/04/2020 - 7:46pm

from this thread about godawful woke protestors turning against suburbanites

FEEDS TRUMP'S MEME ABOUT PROTECTING SUBURBANITES

By artappraiser on Fri, 08/14/2020 - 12:50am |