[Ukraine War] Bellingcat opens it up



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    A lack of sergeants?

    if true, probably needs to be filed under 'what a tangled web we weave':

    Howso? Russia's boy Donnie signed our rapid am-scray from Afghanistan.

    This is just rewarding Pootie twice.

    this guy is clearly fluent in Kremlin-speak:

    Russian forces are heroically regrouping back to Russia, and Ukrainian forces are in complete panic, chasing them.

    — Dimko Zhluktenko (@dim0kq) November 10, 2022

    WWIII is trending on Twitter. But CNN TV is only covering it starting now, after their commercial.


    Certainly begs the question of whether the "western allies" are telling the public a little white lie while reading Russia the riot act behind the scenesl to avoid WWIII. I did catch part of the Pentagon press briefing with Austin & Milley and they seemed sincere and forthcoming, but you never know these things for sure.

    How Ukraine Blew Up a Key Russian Bridge

    By James Glanz and Marco Hernandez @ NYTimes.com Nov. 17, 2022

    The attack severed a crucial Russian supply line and triggered a month of Russian airstrikes. Experts reconstructed how Ukraine pulled it off.

    Galeev says straight out that EU peeps should quit bellyaching about Biden & the U.S.:


    Kazakhstan been watching the Russian political talk shows?

    In September, state-owned KazMunayGas began exporting oil through Georgia and Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. 2/https://t.co/P3qdb5xzlw

    — Justartsandstuff (@justartsndstuff) November 25, 2022

    The Scottish government!

    interesting even if agitprop, and it's probably not -

    video wth English subtitles -

    Why'd Putin wait on Ukraine?

    Seems he expected Medvedchuk to replace Poroshenko, which would allow him to annex more of Ukraine w/o war.

    But then some comedian won the election...

    ^ note for the above story there are so many contributing reporters, I am not going to even try to count them -

    Reporting was contributed by Aaron Krolik, Adam Satariano, Alan Yuhas, Andrew Higgins, Carlotta Gall, Christiaan Triebert, Eric Schmitt, Helene Cooper, Ivan Nechepurenko, Julian E. Barnes, Mykola Ponomarenko, Natalia Yermak, Oleg Matsnev, Paul Mozur, Ronen Bergman, Stanislav Kozliuk and Valerie Hopkins. Aleksandra Koroleva, Oksana Nesterenko and Milana Mazaeva contributed translations.

    Zelensky planning to visit US Capitol in person on Wednesday


    @ TheHill.com.  They've headlined it, even tho lots of other news is going on.

    WTF unfucking believable, has he got nothing else he could come up with?!!! It's so nonsensical, so absurd, I bet he's got the "war on Christmas" past spinmeisters rolling in their graves!

    Elsewhere quite believable

    Amy & Cornel Tue uo their loose ends.

    makes a good point that there's this thing that most of them share with Trump as well:

    Russia's in trouble now

    This specific is on fighting Putin disinfo but the comment is on US foreign policy communication in general - I'm sharing it here partly cause I know PP has an interest:

    He self-describes as

    I have opinions. Mostly on US-Africa policy. Former CIA, State, NSC. Still recovering. Currently senior associate @CSISAfrica

    And I believe him on that, have been following him for a while on Africa and seems knowledgeable enough to have all the experience he claims.


    Interesting that he's saying that even if it's propaganda:

    Especially as he's not saying it will end the invasion.

    From a lefty Dutch cartoonist. It's the US shoving Ukrainians into the meat grinder, you see. Remarkable meeting of minds with Tucker Carlson and Matt Gaetz. World's worst horseshoe. pic.twitter.com/azAH3KKaA7

    — Cathy Young (@CathyYoung63) January 10, 2023

    also see Dan Salmon's tweet I just posted on the Crime News thread

    Great Chechen interview

    The world didnt "shrug" at Grozny - they were busy with Rwanda and Yugoslavia, it was an internal Russian action that'd would be near impossible to interfere with, there wasn't much internet (quickly destroyed anyway) and no mobile phones/Instagram... Limited intervention was an experiment - actually Bush Sr set a precedent by not driving on to Baghdad after Kuwaiti liberation, and 10 years of overflight was similar to keeping track of the tribal areas in western Pakistan. Even now, careful US support if Ukraine vs taking on a nuclear power head-on antagonistically. A more pragmatic avoidance of the gung-ho "regime change" that Bush Jr/Cheney championed after scoffing at Gore's "policing".

    The careful response in Ukraine helps avoid a Sarajevo=>WWI tripwire. Likely we should have done much more post-Crimean invasion and Donbas occupation (under Obama), but after Trump got in Jan 2017 it was out of normal people's hands aside from some slight limitations.

    In general I've been critical about Obama in the Mideast/Afghanistan, including the somewhat muddy response to Aleppo (letting the Russians have their way), but he did a good job on the ISIS response/multinational response force.

    And then Trump let ISIS get away and screwed the Kurds. Is that "the world", "the US", or "1 regime"/a "recent spinoff countering previous Republican foreign policy" (or just largely a successful Russian propaganda & influence putsch behind the scenes)



    01/27/2023 04:30 AM EST

    Justyna Gudzowska is the director of illicit finance policy at The Sentry. She previously worked for the United Nations Security Council on sanctions against ISIS and Al-Qaida and for the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

    Nathalia Dukhan is a senior investigator at The Sentry, tracking illicit financial flows and armed groups in Central Africa. In recent years, she has led The Sentry's in-depth investigations on Wagner group activities in the Central African Republic

    Russia is massing hundreds of thousands of troops and stepping up its bombardment, perhaps signaling the biggest assault since the start of the war. “I think it has started,” Ukraine’s leader says

    By Marc Santora and Michael Schwirtz @NYTimes.com, Updated Feb. 2, 2023, 12:01 a.m. ET

    KYIV, Ukraine — Moscow has massed hundreds of thousands of troops in Ukraine and is targeting dozens of places a day in a markedly stepped-up barrage of artillery attacks. Ukrainian forces are struggling to hold their ground on a 140-mile stretch in the east, awaiting tanks, armored vehicles and other weapons systems from the West.

    Ukrainian officials have been bracing for weeks for a new Russian offensive that could rival the opening of the war. Now, they are warning that the campaign is underway, with the Kremlin seeking to reshape the battlefield and seize the momentum.

    “I think it has started,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said this week.


    The Russian approach shifted last month after the Kremlin named Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov to take over its struggling war effort. Since then, Moscow has steadily added forces in Donbas, seeking to do with overwhelming manpower what it has so far failed to do with firepower: break through lines that have been fortified for nine years, going back to when Russia first fomented rebellion in Ukraine’s east.

    Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russia now has more than 320,000 soldiers in the country — roughly twice the size of Moscow’s initial invasion force. Western officials and military analysts have said that Moscow also has 150,000 to 250,000 soldiers in reserve, either training or being positioned inside Russia to join the fight at any time.

    “We see that they are preparing for more war, that they are mobilizing more soldiers, more than 200,000, and potentially even more than that,” NATO’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, told reporters during a visit to South Korea on Monday. “They are actively acquiring new weapons, more ammunition, ramping up their own production, but also acquiring more weapons from other authoritarian states like Iran and North Korea.”

    A surge in Russian bombardment has accompanied the buildup of forces.

    Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst for Rochan Consulting, which tracks Russian deployments, said that reported Russian artillery barrages had risen from an average of about 60 per day four weeks ago to more than 90 per day last week. On one day alone, 111 Ukrainian locations were targeted.

    He also said that “the Russians are withdrawing a lot of equipment from storage areas.” Still, he concurred with other analysts who say that Russia will struggle to outfit large numbers of new soldiers with tanks, armored vehicles and other effective equipment. [....]



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