Michael Cohen Apparently Flipping Is Extremely Bad News for Trump

By  Jonathan Chait @ NYMag.com, July 2

When the FBI raided Michael Cohen’s home and office three months ago, President Trump freaked out like he has never freaked out before. And now the worst of his fears appears to have been realized. In a new interview with George Stephanopoulos, Cohen all but states that he will cooperate with the FBI rather than protect his longtime boss. “My wife, my daughter, and my son, and this country have my first loyalty,” says Cohen. More significantly, ABC reports that Cohen is ending his joint defense agreement with Trump, which is what Michael Flynn did before flipping.

What would it mean for Trump if Cohen turns on him? The short answer is, it would be extremely bad. A somewhat longer list of reasons why [....]

Here Are The Documents Recovered From Michael Cohen’s Shredder WITH SCANS

“NEVER MET: Donald Trump, George Lucas, Harrison Ford, Steven Spielberg, Michael Jackson, The Jackson’s family, Sony.”

By Jason Leopold & Anthony Cormier @ BuzzFeed.com, July 2, at 4:31 p.m.

When the Department of Justice announced this month that investigators had pieced together records found in a shredder belonging to the president’s former lawyer Michael Cohen, critics, legal experts, and journalists feverishly speculated about what they might contain.

Michael Avenatti, the lawyer for adult film star Stormy Daniels and Cohen's devoted nemesis, tweeted that the shredded documents could be a “huge problem.” MSNBC host Ari Melber devoted a large part of his program in May to the shredded documents and suggested that “something is going down.” Asha Rangappa, a former FBI agent and CNN analyst, tweeted: “This is not going to end well for the defense.”

Now, BuzzFeed News has obtained documents reconstructed by the FBI. A close examination shows that the records are a combination of documents that prosecutors already had, handwritten notes about a taxi business, insurance papers, and correspondence from a woman described in court filings as a “vexatious litigant” who claims she is under government surveillance [.....]

Some related Avenatti tweets:

Game theory on it, the # 1 story @ NewYorker.com right now:

Is Michael Cohen Turning on Donald Trump? By Adam Davidson, July 2

The most famous game-theory formula was developed in 1950, by two mathematicians, Melvin Dresher and Merrill Flood. But it was only later that another mathematician gave it the catchy name that made it famous: the Prisoner’s Dilemma. The idea is simple: two accused criminals have been arrested and are being interrogated separately. If they both stay silent, they’ll both get a year in jail. But, if one rats out the other, he could get away scot-free while his accomplice would spend three years in jail. The optimal outcome, in terms of total time served, is for both to remain silent. But, as Drescher and Flood posited, there is enormous likelihood that each will rat out the other. There are endless variations of the formula, tweaking the costs and benefits of silence and confession, but the core insight remains: if two people whose interests are mutually dependent on the actions of the other don’t fully trust each other, and don’t have the opportunity to secretly coördinate, they will end up behaving in ways that hurt both of them.

President Donald Trump and his former attorney Michael Cohen are currently playing out the Prisoner’s Dilemma in the most public and consequential way possible. (My colleague John Cassidy used game theory to explain the many leaks coming from the Trump White House this spring.) [....]

wow, Lanny Davis retained by Michael Cohen, apparently to handle P.R.?!!!

is a roundup of what former prosecutors think is going on:

Michael Cohen has made 'a declaration of independence' from President Trump, says new lawyer (Lanny Davis) 

@ TheHill.com, July 10