Goldman Sachs Predicts ‘Unprecedented’ 24% Drop In U.S. GDP Next Quarter

By artappraiser on Fri, 03/20/2020 - 8:36pm |

By Sarah Ruiz-Grossman @ HuffPost.com, March 20

Economists from Goldman Sachs are forecasting a dramatic 24% drop in the nation’s gross domestic product in the coming months, as governments, businesses, schools and more announce increasingly strict measures to keep people at home and apart to try to slow the spread of coronavirus nationwide.

In an analysis released Friday, economists with the major bank revised their previous forecast of a 5% drop in U.S. GDP for the second quarter (April through June) to a 24% drop, citing expected declines in manufacturing activity and services consumption. If that materializes, it would be historic: In modern history, the largest quarterly decline in U.S. GDP was a 10% drop in the first quarter of 1958.

“The sudden stop in U.S. economic activity in response to the virus is unprecedented,” the economists wrote, adding that in just the last few days, “social distancing” measures across the country have “shut down normal life” and have already led to a rise in layoffs and a “collapse” in consumer spending. [.....]

URL:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/us-economy-gdp-drop-coronavirus_n_5e751766c5b63c3b64903ff4

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This is hardly the time for means-testing.

Check printer go brrrr!! https://t.co/djum7oigXD
— We need 120k tests a day (@Noahpinion) March 21, 2020

by artappraiser on Fri, 03/20/2020 - 9:35pm

U.S. virus payments to households may take months, not weeks, to hit bank accounts https://t.co/oFtsdoPoHO via @bpolitics
— Kevin Whitelaw (@KevinWhitelaw1) March 21, 2020

by artappraiser on Fri, 03/20/2020 - 10:01pm

Just this afternoon, California's largest landlord organization voluntarily implemented a rent freeze and YIMBY groups and @AIDSHealthcare — who are almost always the bitterest of enemies — co-signed a letter to the governor asking for a renter relief package.
— Liam Dillon (@dillonliam) March 21, 2020

Some have asked for the letter to the governor sent today by 140 organizations including — @ACLU, @_UCSA, @AIDSHealthcare, @cayimby — for a renter relief package. https://t.co/TvJi0DzYFt

Don't see a letter with this many signers too often. pic.twitter.com/speEql4DG2
— Liam Dillon (@dillonliam) March 21, 2020

by artappraiser on Fri, 03/20/2020 - 10:18pm

If you include @RealDonaldTrump's ~$30 billion bailout of American agriculture, the Trump administration will likely spend more on direct government handouts to American business in one term than Presidents Bush and Obama did in 16 combined years.
— Max Burns (@themaxburns) March 21, 2020

by artappraiser on Sat, 03/21/2020 - 12:00am

the point to learn is that there is no ideology here, only Trump?

pic.twitter.com/bsg7saAeJk
— Sheikh (@SheikhStalin) March 20, 2020

by artappraiser on Sat, 03/21/2020 - 3:50am

NYTimes Editorial Board, 3/20: How to Avoid Complete Economic Destruction

To limit mass unemployment, the government needs to provide companies with the money they are temporarily unable to earn.

by artappraiser on Sat, 03/21/2020 - 1:05am

3 stories from NYTimes Business on home page:

Stock Market’s Gain Under Trump Vanishes With another fall on Friday, the Dow Jones average is now lower than it was when President Trump took office.

7h ago

The Trump Organization cut staff from hotels, halted reservations and closed golf courses.

8h ago

Starbucks will close most cafes in the U.S. and Boeing’s executives will forgo pay. See business updates here.

3h ago

by artappraiser on Sat, 03/21/2020 - 1:07am

WOW!!! Danish govt told private companies that it would pay 75 percent of their employees’ salaries to avoid mass layoffs... spend 13% of the national economy in 3 months. (roughly equivalent to a $2.5 trillion US stimulus over just 13 weeks). #COVID19 https://t.co/V4HYRn2T8I
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) March 22, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/22/2020 - 2:15am

Deleted an earlier tweet on this. The Goldman estimate is an annualized rate (i.e., the economy would contract by 6% in a quarter, which would mean a 24% contraction if continued all year.) News reports suggest Bullard's figure is NOT an annualized rate -- trying to get clarity. https://t.co/44Jj05Q7Ax
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) March 22, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/22/2020 - 4:55pm

TOM BARRACK also predicts that "as revenues fall further, layoffs will accelerate, consumption will evaporate, and almost every American will be financially challenged to a degree not experienced since THE GREAT DEPRESSION."

[emphasis added] https://t.co/dBvcRR2DSQ
— Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) March 23, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/22/2020 - 9:24pm

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