MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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Hillary wins Wyoming
By PeraclesPlease on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 7:59am |While Hillary and Bernie tied in Wyoming for pledged delegates 7-7, with superdelegates she goes up 4.
Looking back at Wisconsin, Bernie won pledged delegates by 10, but after superdelegates only up 5.
Three takeaways: 1) it's the delegates, not popular vote, and 2) time and money's been better spent on east coast where 5 upcoming primaries are worth a lot more delegates, and 3) "momentum" is overrated except in pundit-land.
URL:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries/2016-04-09
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Comments
LOL...Collecting super delegates is like collecting empty beer cans. They only vote if they are asked. That happened only one time in 1984 and they voted for the person that had the most pledged delegates.
Caucus delegates are not pledged until after the state convention. Sanders ended up with more pledged delegates in NV than Clinton after the state convention because some of her district delegates(25% of them) didn't show up at the state convention. The same thing happened in MO. Sanders ended up with the most pledged from that state convention. WY state convention is in May then we will see who walks away with the most pledged delegates when the fat lady sings.
by trkingmomoe on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 1:07pm
So that's why Bernie's begging the "empty beer cans" to go with him? And she of course has the most pledged elegates, so there's nothing in that equation to give him hope, aside from a nickel a can rebate. #FeelTheBeern
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 1:22pm
Super Delegates are the result of insider politicians playing an insider while sitting around the fire inside the political cave. Hillary obviously played that game very well. The abstract legitimacy, apart from the real power, of the Super Delegate count she amassed is the shadow on the wall of the elephant in that cave and it is an example of "democracy" that is several times removed from the more direct will of the people as expressed in their vote in state elections. That is the case even for those people outside the cave whose choices happen to be the same as the one the cave dwellers have overwhelmingly supported.
by A Guy Called LULU on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 1:42pm
Believe it or not, Superdelegates are typically long-term party organizers and politicians who keep the party running between elections. Sorry if that's too establishment and caveman/woman for you, but someone has to put branches on the fire and bring home bear. I saw it in Quest for Fire, must be true. Meanwhile the lazy suckers who vote once every 4 years and disappear complain that their democracy has disappeared, but there's more to democracy than a vote, a kiss and $27. Some party regulars think it's strange that Independents are allowed to vote, while others I guess are fine with the idea. In the end, life just never seems to work out fair, do it. Sometimes you just dont have enough rocks.
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 1:53pm
Talking about supers now is like talking about a poll of lvoters in a state before the vote. Supers don't vote until the convention. Until then it's only an intention. And Hillary is clearly winning both the pledged delegates and the popular vote. The only candidate that might be helped by the supers is Sanders. But so long as he's losing both the popular vote and the pledged delegates the supers will not signal an intention to vote for him nor will they give him an election he lost in delegates and popular vote. Funny how the man who called for a revolution in the face of it not happening is now talking about taking it with supers from the likely winner of the popular vote and pledged delegates.
by ocean-kat on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 2:48pm
He likes a good challenge
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 2:38pm
Yes, agreed, it is only an 'intention' until it is acted on but it is not an intention without purpose, the purpose being initiated long before anyone's official candidacy had begun, before another candidate's campaign had sparkrd enthusiasm among millions of Democratic, Independent, and even some Republican voters. And, it is an intention which has affected the politics going forward from its announcement just as intended. The announced intention for Hillary has boosted her campaign against that of Sanders and I don't think that is the legitimate goal of the DNC.
by A Guy Called LULU on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 3:08pm
It's not a DNC endorsement, it's an individual endorsement, nothing more. there're quite a number of supers who have not made an endorsement, like Warren. That gets as much if not more media play than those who have endoresed. Everybody is allowed to make an endorsement whether you're a politician or a movie star or an ordinary blogger like you and me. Voters decide how much weight to put on any of those endorsements.
by ocean-kat on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 3:24pm
You are right it did boost Hillary in the beginning but it has lost that effect currently. Clinton is playing the same primary strategy that she used in 2008. After she lost to Obama by 64 delegates, she tried to pressure a vote of super delegates at the convention. That would have been in the second round of voting but Nancy P. told her they were all obligated to vote for the person with the most pledged delegates. So Hillary gave up on that after she was shot down. She would have lost on the second vote with supers any ways so there was never a second vote. The supers will not be voting at the 2016 convention because they won't be needed.
Super delegates are just media hype in a game to get the Clintons back in the White House.
We haven't heard the last of the Panama Papers. It is really shaking things up in Europe. The world is changing. The revolution is not just going on here but there too.
I spent 4 decades working in ground games for the Democratic Party but I have to admit, I have never seen the amazing ground game that Sanders' supporters have been waging. They started phone banking on Friday for New York and in 48 hours had banked 200,000 calls just from 2 Reddit sub groups. That is just the tip of the iceburg. My hat goes off to the Sanders campaign that is keeping all these groups and there are many organized and focused. I give them credit for the last 8 Sanders' wins.
by trkingmomoe on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 9:06pm
As somebody who believes the party-centric primaries are kind of a grand scam, it's no surprise I sympathize with you here. The establishment support for Hillary is an unfair advantage though it also, ironically, makes Bernie's run possible because an insurgent needs an establishment to run against or there's no point.
While I'd be most happy with no party primaries at all, I like Charles Blow's suggestion that super delegates keep their thoughts to themselves until they see how democracy shakes out.
by Michael Maiello on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 9:08pm
You've been consistently fair and even keeled throughout this process. I appreciate it. Your turn to vote is coming up. It's none of my business, really, (the lack of a secret ballot during the caucus process is another reason to not like them) but I'm curious. Who will you pull the lever for? I ask because I seem to remember you suggesting you'd vote for Sanders in the primary and Clinton in the general, but I feel like that may not be the case. If not, what was the tipper?
by kyle flynn on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 10:05pm
Planning to vote for Sanders in the primary, as has been my strategy as I am happy to vote for either in the general, despite a personal preference for Hillary (who, I suspect, I will forgive my primary heresy when I vote for her when it counts).
by Michael Maiello on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 11:30pm
Oh come on, movie stars, rappers, civil right leaders, every body but elected politicians can endorse a candidate? I doubt that even here most people couldn't name more than 20 of the 400 supers that have endorsed Hillary. Do you think people are actually going to the polls voting for Hillary because the party political class endorsed her? If there weren't super delegates party leaders would find another way to advertise their support. Like the Congressional Black Caucus PAC did. Should the CBC and all other organizations of party leaders and politicians be enjoined from endorsing a candidate too? Until I actually see the supers do something more than simply endorsing a candidate this is all much ado about nothing.
by ocean-kat on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 11:13pm
Fair. I can't name a super delegate besides naming a prominent democrat and hoping they are one. Me?
by Michael Maiello on Sun, 04/10/2016 - 11:35pm
I don't know what the big deal is with the super-delegates. Bernie was squawking about how unfair it was that they existed, then decided, well, then I'll just play the game and try to flip them...yeah, Mr. Integrity. He's a different kind of lifelong politician, for sure.
by stillidealistic on Mon, 04/11/2016 - 3:16pm