Book of the Month

"How the Arab Spring Killed Hezbollah"

by PeraclesPlease 9/24/2012 - 4:49 am

Strangely enough, at one point Hezbollah was one of the few factions that looked after the people - an often ignored fact from which they derived quite a bit of their power. Now this effort reeks of patronage and being Assad's puppet.

With a rigid Mideast, Hezbollah served a purpose. Now there are fresher, better alternatives. Moble internet & social media are huge in Lebanon despite poor speeds. Turkey showed that rockets aren't the only way to challenge Israel's blockade on Gaza. So what indeed are Hezbollah's options? More and more, Hezbollah looks like an anachronism, after only 2-3 years of Mideast protest.

Read the full article at http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/107543/how-the-arab-spring-killed-hezbollah

This is a truly bizarre analysis, almost a lament for Hezbollah's loss of ideological purity. Of course, revolutionary movements evolve and adapt as they get to share, or even dominate, the seats of power. How could it be otherwise? The fact that Islamist groups in other countries are following Hezbollah's path toward political respectability hardly weakens it. The fall of Assad might affect its stand-alone military strength, but there is no force within Lebanon that has the incentive or might to challenge its grip on power. And I'm pretty sure most Lebanese, whether they back Hezbollah or detest it, realize the current power-sharing deal is the only alternative to yet another civil war. Hezbollah is going to be around for the long term.

by acanuck 9/24/2012 - 2:08 pm

Having Hezbollah vilified beyond imagination for 30-40 years, maybe it's time to recognize why they were popular. No one's following Hezbollah's lead - they're going for real democracy instead, while Hezbollah is looking like a very decrepit 2nd rate option. In terms of supply lines, Hezbollah's might be overstretched, or they might push the status quo. We'll see on that issue.

by PeraclesPlease 9/24/2012 - 4:58 pm (re: acanuck)

Hey, it's Lebanon -- a very special, unique case. For this fragmented country, buffetted by outside forces and never more than notionally independent, a decrepit second-rate option that offers some measure of stability and inclusion is an achievement.

The latest round of horse-trading will serve the country nicely until the Middle Eastern balance of power gets redrawn once again. Even then, I would hope Lebanon's neighbors realize it's in everyone's interest to let Hezbollah play the role assigned to it by the country's demographics.

by acanuck 9/25/2012 - 2:12 am (re: PeraclesPlease)

Article got me thinking this on Nasrallah:

It's tough being Shia in a growing Sunni world ummah; you've got to continually compete, continually be a comeback kid, or you're history blush

From Salam Pax's old "Where is Raed?" blog, I learned about the folk belief of many Sunni raised insularly that  Shia have tails, but I got the impression from him that it was more of a "Wahhabi" type thing, as they use the term "Wahhabi" in Iraq. The thought popped up again here, and I decided to do some surfing on it. Turns out the belief is particularly strong going way back in Lebanon, more so than in like, Saudi Arabia. Surprising to me.. Here's a thread on topic at a Shia chat forum. (I did find it cited as a common folk tale in Lebanon elsewhere, like in this scholarly book on Arab Shia..)

I moved on to find other interesting threads at that forum, especially ones like this one, Labbayk Ya Rasoul Allah Rally - Lebanon, where you see comments like this:

Bismillah al-Rahman al-Rahim
Posted 17 September 2012 - 02:11 PM
Sallam Alykum,

is it just me or have others noticed that when shia Muslims protest, no one dies and no damage is done to the area whereas when Sunnis protest, they end up killing someone and setting things on fire?

and some other comments wondering what particular beef Sunnis have with KFC....

or threads like this or this....

by artappraiser 9/26/2012 - 1:56 am

Presumably they have a particular chicken with KFC. Is KFC the Chick-fil-a of the Mideast? Do they have inclusive hiring?

Links are interesting - used to read Where's Raed regularly - but isn't spreading stories of a Sheikh's belief in Shia liberation theology, or that Sunnis believeWahhabis have tails playing into Islamophobia? ;-)

And the rockets - I do wonder whether anyoone takes them seriously - I figure Hizbollah launches one a quarter to show they're still "revolutionary" or at least breathing. (oops, now I'm a terrorist apologist - how I do switch sides....)

by PeraclesPlease 9/26/2012 - 6:07 am (re: artappraiser)

 isn't spreading stories of a Sheikh's belief in Shia liberation theology, or that Sunnis believeWahhabis have tails playing into Islamophobia? ;-)

But it wouldn't be blasphemous. You can throw slurs at other human beings? Is it possible that doing so might even get you some hasanat if they are apostates or infidels? We need a fatwa here! wink

by artappraiser 9/26/2012 - 4:59 pm (re: PeraclesPlease)

I'm trying to balance my thawabs and ithims, but it looks like the ithims are in the clear lead. What to do? Maybe a pilgrimage - to Quinntucket. I hear every devotee must make that trek once - and no one has the stomach for a 2nd time. But me? I can put up with most anything. 2x Quinn? Obeisance, abeyance, ritual humiliation.... Hope at the end of time they appreciate that - otherwise I'm screwed.

by PeraclesPlease 9/26/2012 - 5:02 pm (re: artappraiser)

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