MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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From the Dagbloggers
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Hits of the Day
MITT WINS!
By Richard Day on Tue, 01/10/2012 - 8:27pm |MITT WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE!
THERE HAS TO BE A HAIKU
IN ALL THIS SOMEWHERE?
Ohmygod.
There he is chuckling on MSNBC.
What a prick!
URL:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/politics/
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Comments
It looks like he'll win with about 3-5 points less than he was projected to win, and with Paul picking up that difference. I'm not sure what that means for the longer term horse race, but the current spin is "2 for 2".
by Verified Atheist on Tue, 01/10/2012 - 8:31pm
Yeah I know: two for two.
Hell he gets like 33 delegates and only needs a thousand more. hahahah
God I hate that guy.
Paul comes in second; really strong!
by Richard Day on Tue, 01/10/2012 - 8:42pm
Actually, NH is being penalized for their early primary by the RNC and thus are only getting 12 total delegates.
So, assuming he got 13 of the Iowa delegates, and 6 of the NH ones (being generous), that puts him at 19. There are a total of 2,249 delegates, so he'll need 1,144 to win. Only 1,125 to go!
by Verified Atheist on Tue, 01/10/2012 - 8:58pm
See my laziness is showing! hahahahaha
Thanks for the research!
by Richard Day on Tue, 01/10/2012 - 9:00pm
Two corrections, it's out of 2,286 total, and WaPo is suggesting Mitt will get 7, not what I thought last night was a generous 6. (Evidently, it's not strictly proportional.)
So, 20 down, 1,124 to go! Mittmentum™!
by Verified Atheist on Wed, 01/11/2012 - 7:37am
Actually, if you throw in the 13 superdelegates that have already endorsed him, your figure of 33 was actually right!
33 down, 1,111 to go!
by Verified Atheist on Wed, 01/11/2012 - 1:12pm
Huntsman in third.
Vows to keep on keeping on.
South Carolina!
by Elusive Trope on Tue, 01/10/2012 - 8:53pm
You know Trope; I think cheap whiskey has gotten to me!
I am rootin for Paul.
hahahahah
by Richard Day on Tue, 01/10/2012 - 8:59pm
This is so sad. What I'm getting out of both Iowa and NH is that if there was one 'decent' conservative running instead of the few (mostly whackos) that are his opponents, 'Myth' Romney would have been 'fired'. The others have had the majority of votes. (It's been noted that Huntsman also being Mormon hasn't helped him.)
The truth is that 'Myth' and his cohorts (shudder to think who they really are) simply have the $$$$$$$$$$$$ to buy this primary.
by Aunt Sam on Tue, 01/10/2012 - 10:03pm
Let me add a few things for context:
1) A win of 35-38% in New Hampshire is totally normal, and in line with usual expectations for the winner.
2) According to Nate Silver, the current turnout projections are around 225,000 voters. That's down from about 240,000 last time around. But 2008 had a suspenseful Democratic matchup as well, which matters because in New Hampshire independents can vote in either primary. So the Republicans seem to be down 10 or 15 thousand primary voters even though the Independents didn't have a competitive Democratic primary to vote in. That suggests:
a. An ongoing lack of enthusiasm on the Republican side
b. A Republican field that has low appeal to New Hampshire Independents
c. both a & b
3) Two other Massachusetts politicians have won the New Hampshire primary, which is essentially a home game for them, with 35%-39% of the vote. John Kerry won with 38ish% in 2004. And Massachusetts Governor Mike Dukakis, whom some of us remember fondly, won New Hampshire in 1988 with 36.5%.
You'll notice two things about those gentlemen. Both won the nomination, and both went on to lose general elections where they had a real fighting chance, in part because neither of them was an especially effective campaigner.
(By contrast, JFK won the New Hampshire primary by 85% in 1960. That number is so high because the primary system as we know it was still developing and New Hampshire wasn't contested so strongly. But it's still a long way about 36.5%)
Winning New Hampshire with 37% of the vote is a real win. But if you've been Governor of Massachusetts, which means that most New Hampshire voters see you on the TV news every night and many actually draw their paycheck in your state, and after those voters have spent years getting to know you they still only give you 37% of the vote ... well, you may get your nomination. But you're not exactly an electrifying politician.
by Doctor Cleveland on Tue, 01/10/2012 - 10:50pm
I enjoyed the part of his speech where he said we have a clear choice between returning to the values that our country was founded on - you know, back when suffrage was reserved for land-and-people-owning white men - or turning into a European-style social democracy. If people really understood the difference between those realities, they would be on flotillas to Denmark.
Also, I really liked hearing Willard Mitt "My first name is Mitt" Romney, aka R-Money (dolla dolla bill y'all), and Newton Leroy "Who named this guy Leroy?" Gingrich-McPherson, serial divorcee, wax poetic during the NH debates about 3,000 years of the sanctity of marriage between a man and a woman. R-Money does perhaps a little bit better here since we have to go back about 150 years to make his claim look ridiculous. The sanctity of Newton Leroy's last marriage went down the tubes less than 12 Earth years ago, which he explained thusly:
You got that? The sanctity of Newt's personal marriage takes a back seat to the love of his country, okay? Sometimes, when a man get overworked.. things happen. And those things might stretch beyond leaving your ailing wife
on her deathbed, perhaps into areas like soliciting sex from other men in an airport bathroom or maybe finding a travel companion on Rent-Boy.com. But that doesn't change the general sanctity of marriage one whit. Got that, gaywads?by DF on Wed, 01/11/2012 - 1:43pm
Just to clear one thing up (since I had the same misconception), Newt's wife wasn't on her deathbed. She was in the hospital, being treated for cancer. She's actually still alive. (This was the first wife. The second wife was the one he left for the current wife.) I point this out only because some people like to harp on a single mistake in an attempt to invalidate an entire argument, and your argument is sound.
by Verified Atheist on Wed, 01/11/2012 - 2:21pm
Thanks for that VA. I never mind being corrected on the facts.
Hopefully she's both alive and well. Best revenge, they say.
by DF on Wed, 01/11/2012 - 2:29pm
Here's something from one of the two daughters he had with his first wife. Summary:
Contrary to what the daughter says (and I'm sure she thinks it's true), the mother did in fact try to stop the divorce, according to court records.
by Verified Atheist on Wed, 01/11/2012 - 3:36pm
Jackie: Newt... if you go, where shall I go, what shall I do?
Newt: Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn.
by Donal on Wed, 01/11/2012 - 3:50pm
Well I hereby render unto Donal the Dayly Dialog of the Day Award for this here Dagblog Site given to all of him from all of me. hahahaha
Wasn't that Gable? Or maybe Betty Grable. I get them mixed up!
by Richard Day on Wed, 01/11/2012 - 4:50pm
Bear in mind, please, that the wife in question first entered Newt's life to teach him High School Geometry. Newt thought a whole lot of his bad self, back in High School, scorin' the *pedagogic pussy, an' all that.
But, with the passage of time...
*(I tried to fuck a teacher in my High School, and it wasn't my fault that I didn't get to do it, either. But, thinking back, she was only 22 and she looked 16, and I only found out later that she was a teacher in my high school...)
by jollyroger on Wed, 01/11/2012 - 4:41pm