MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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A Tunisian-Egyptian Link That Shook Arab History
By artappraiser on Mon, 02/14/2011 - 10:52pm |Two-Year Collaboration of Dissidents Was a Key to the Democracy Movement.
By David D. Kirkpatrick and David E. Sanger, New York Times, Febraury 12, 2011
My notes: You may have skipped this long piece in preference for reading on more specialized sites like Al Jazeera etc. I suggest everyone check it out. It's got a lot of very interesting info. in it. You know that Mubarak regime agitprop about outside agitators? Well....not what they meant and not their usual suspects, and only a few of them, but turns out there were some helping out-- like the Progressive Youth of Tunisia, the Otpor Youth Movement in Serbia, the Academy of Change in Qatar, and the ideas of American political thinker Gene Sharp. There's also an interesting roundup of Obama adminstration source statements about what went on in the White House.
I'm using my print edtiion headlines. What they have on the website "today's paper" contents is
Dual Uprisings Show Potent New Threat to Arab States; A two-year collaboration of dissidents gave birth to a new force — a pan-Arab youth movement dedicated to spreading democracy in a region without it.
URL:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/world/middleeast/14egypt-tunisia-protests.html
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Comments
A solid read, appraiser. Maybe the first draft of the first draft of history. Still some blanks, though: did the high command order the army not to fire on protesters, or did the resistance come from mid-level officers on the ground? Who in the Muslim Brotherhood youth wing finally talked the organization's old guard into joining the protest? How and when? Whose idea was it to send Wisner to sugarcoat the administration's message, when Mubarak needed straight talk from Obama himself (or at least one of the Clintons)? It really sounds like the White House and State Dept. were not on the same page on that one.
The article talks about intelligence agencies assessing the risk to Mubarak at 20 per cent. At the beginning, that probably was a reasonable guess; even the organizers can't have put their chances much higher. But 30 years of grinding repression can produce a lot of stored-up energy, and the overconfident regime misplayed its cards about as badly as anyone could have hoped. The test now is whether the Egyptian youth leaders can keep their act together through the transition.
by acanuck on Tue, 02/15/2011 - 1:52am
Good questions.
On the intelligence, I completely buy the story about Mubarak changing his speech at the last minute after hectoring by Gamal, especially because I've seen it come from so many different sources. Seems like the U.S. actually had pretty good intel, (less shut out than in a lot of other countries,) probably coming from military to our military, that it was just that Mubarak himself decided to shock them all at the last minute. That explanation also fits very well with so many other facts and reactions, not the least of which the meandering unclear almost ad lib nature of the speech itself.
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/15/2011 - 7:25am
Great article. thanks for the pointer. Loved this bit
“The youth of the Muslim Brotherhood played a really big role,” Mr. Maher said. “But actually so did the soccer fans” of Egypt’s two leading teams. “These are always used to having confrontations with police at the stadiums,” he said.
Who knew, hooligans using their skills for political progress...
by Obey on Tue, 02/15/2011 - 5:47am
Yeah I noticed that too. Made me rethink what some of the army in the square might have been thinking during the invasion of the thugs, i.e., yawn, this is no worse than the breakout after that soccer match a couple years back, wake us when it gets serious.
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/15/2011 - 7:18am
Paul Amar writing at Jadalayya explains his understanding of the many layers of business and military and police within Egypt, and which organizations and movements came serendipitously together to make such a potent movement. I think you could safely say that it evolved as they days went on. I was glad he explained who the 'well-dressed' protestors were who arrived the last couple days; it signified something different that some business-class people wanted Mubarak out. The clash between crony Elites and nationalist Elites is interesting.
Labor strikers said they weren't looking for M's ouster, but that tide may have turned, too, but the last two days. It's a long read, but worth it, I think.
http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/516/why-mubarak-is-out
That so much of the wealth disparity can be traced to Rubinesque neoLiberal policies foisted on the regime connected to IMF loans is gut-wrenching to read; Matt Stoller and Jack Shenker say Egyptians have been clued in for a while about Gamal's efforts to sell off their country to foreign investors, and keep wages down, and force austerity onto the people. Too familiar for comfort.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/matt-stoller-the-egyptian-labor-uprising-against-rubinites.html
Shenker wrote this in 2009 when the GAFI report came out, and sorta spilled the beans...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/08/egypt-imf
Part of Amar's point was that it wasn't just a Facebook revolution.
by we are stardust on Tue, 02/15/2011 - 8:29am
Thanks for all the links, I am eager to delve into them.
But I want to quickly say on this
that I agree. Actually, I was thinking of saying something before your comment that there's one thing dangerous about articles like the NYT one, that in looking comprehensive, some people get the idea it's the whole story. I definitely think the "Facebook revolution" were just very skillful spark makers, and there is much proof in that even in their own surprise all along the way at what was happening. It's not like they had total control and everything went according to plan. The broadening of the movement day after day was what was of the most amazing things about it from Tunisia onward. That said, its helpful to pick people like them out for attention early on, and learn about them, because some may become the poltiical or government leaders in the next phases.
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/15/2011 - 8:45am
I need to add that there is one point where I might differ. I do not think economic issues should be stressed too much as to the spark that unfiies. The fear of government thing just jumps at you all the way through this since Tunisia, as a main motivating and unifying factor, and it comes from poor as well as other classes. There is something in actual straight out abuse by the government that eventually makes for revolutions where simple poverty or unfairness doesn't. I think this is something really important, something that shouldn't be minimized, it's a key, the "We are all Khaled Said" thing, rich and poor.
In the last video here, made before Jan. 20, a woman on the street in Sidi Bouziz says: Mr. Bouazizi! He was a hero ...to me....Mr. Bouazizi was a symbol...I thank him because he freed me of my fear... and has trouble finding the next words. The reporter asks Fear of what? She answers: Fear of oppression! Fear of the government! And in the first video at the link, the famous one that went viral, there are no bloggers, no Facebook, no technology of any kind. Just people on the street, spontaneoously getting angry. Angry about abuse, abuse of a guy who just torched himself, abuse they all feel. The Facebook revolutionaries role was in making that viral. They didn't start it, they were just looking for it.
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/15/2011 - 9:08am
The economic factors were wearing people down over the years. Labor first claimed not to be concerned about M being deposed, and some said the same of the rural farmers. I'm not sure, but it did seem to be a confluence of factors crystallizing and mutating over the last few days to me, plus the telegraphed understanding that if Suleiman and Mubarak stayed, protestors would likely be tortured or killed would have sobered up people really effectively.
The clash between the business classes I think factored in highly at the end, and I'd guess that the military might have leaned away from Gamal's neoliberal Elites privatizing and selling off the State.
Iran has seen plenty of State murder and torture, yet the conditions are vastly different than Egypts. I confess I'm a little worried about O's full-throated support of protests there, and if they've thought it through. Last time (09?) might have been better. We'll see. Hope the loss of life can be held down, or sparks some success if not. Godspeed to them.
by we are stardust on Tue, 02/15/2011 - 10:59am
The Jadaliyya article is very informative. Good find.
by acanuck on Wed, 02/16/2011 - 2:37am
I just put it up in the "In the news" section. It is by far the best I have read, because it is totally devoid of the spin that western media are putting on all of this. If we study this we must look at all the objective factors. Certainly something was going to give. If you ever get a chance to see the recent, wonderful Egyptian film, "The Yacoubian Building" or read the book it is based on. you'll see that this thing has long been on the cards. This revloution, like the film and the book, is not just one story but a multitude of stories.
by David Seaton on Wed, 02/16/2011 - 8:10am