Book of the Month

Shuts and Failures

by Michael Maiello

Articleman's picture

Articleman's Final Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 332 (50.6%), Romney 206 (48.3%)

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 1:32 am   |

Please join me Tuesday for a liveblog of the 2012 election.  I have already explained in a separate post why I predict that Democrats will pick up one seat in an uphill Senate cycle.  This blog details my view of the current state of the Presidential race, which explains why I believe President Obama is certain to win re-election, as well as the states and electoral vote total I think he will win.  Would love to hear your different predictions, if any.  Here we go:

The History of This Race:  Obama Pulls Away At the Wire

The last two-and-one-half months of this race now have a narrative structure that is complete.  We saw the selection of Paul Ryan enthuse the GOP base but fail to achieve a definable bounce, other than perhaps a one point move to Governor Romney.  The Republican convention was ineffectual, particularly in its failure to focus on Governor Romney and sell him, culminating in the misappropriation of its final night to create the empty chair meme when it should have been selling the Governor's life story and vision.  The Democratic convention was focused and on message, and helped drive the gender gap wider, and also bring independent voters home to the President and the party's candidates.

The gap between the party conventions spurred a bounce of roughly five points for President Obama, putting him in front by 6 or so nationally.  This bounce was further fueled and extended by Romney's speaking out harshly on 9.11 based on the mistaken assertion that the Obama Adminstration was apologizing to extremists after being attacked, followed by the more consequential 47% comments.  The race appeared unwinnable for Romney, as he trailed by up to 10 in Ohio.

Romney's bright moment came in Denver, as he outshone a lethargic President Obama in the first debate.  It was scored as a win by a whopping 72/20 polling margin -- a record margin of victory in such an event.  President Obama's lead dwindled, and Governor Romney came to lead in some national tracking polls by midOctober.  Yet even then, Romney/Ryan never led in Nevada, Wisconsin, or Ohio, without which they were not "leading" in the Presidential election as it will be scored.  Vice President Joe Biden reprised some of the interruptive aggression that Romney had used well in Denver, and beat Rep. Ryan in their debate.  The second debate, headlined by Romney's mistake on Libya, Candy Crowley's correction of it, and Obama's strikingly more aggressive manner, was scored a victory for the President.  The third debate, in which Romney reprised Al Gore's illogical choice to radically vary his tone debate-to-debate, was a dismal failure for Romney, as time and again he meekly agreed with the President, flip-flopped on a hard withdrawal date for Afghanistan.  Gallup found that by a 24 point margin, voters thought Obama won this one.

With that, the tide turned.  As I showed here, in week-over-week polling, Obama moved up in the swing states, showing significantly better from October 23-29 than he had from October 16-22.  Then came Superstorm Sandy, its devastation, and the federal government's unKatrina-like staging of needed supplies before the storm arrived, and effective movement of them into forward areas quickly.  Unlike Katrina, Americans by vast margins saw an effective federal response.  Governor Christie worked closely with President Obama, praising his response and memorably embracing him as the President arrived.  The President exhibited a Clintonian touch, holding and consoling a New Jersey storm victim and telling her it was going to be ok and that help would get to her quickly.  During the last week, the polls rose further.  Pew Research, which showed Obama up 51-43 during his September bounce, showed Romney up 49-45 after his Denver bounce, and tied after the latter debates 47-47, this evening shows Obama up 50-47.

The President was going to win the Electoral College whatever the popular vote split at the time of the 47-47 Pew survey, but with Pew, Rasmussen, and WaPo all showing further movement to President Obama, it seems clear that the President now leads the average of national polls (which was not true during midOctober, regardless of the Electoral College advantage he held).  That motion is additive, providing a further layer of advantage to what would be an Obama Electoral College victory even in a popular vote tie.

Realizing that Ohio is almost certainly not an option for him, Governor Romney has thrown a bit of money and time at Pennsylvania, in service of creating the idea that he could win there.  This claim is self-refuting.  If Pennsylvania is a good place for Romney, he should have devoted some energy or time to that before November.  He did not.  The silly Baydoun/Foster polls (they found a 15 point lead for Romney in Florida at one point!) to the contrary, Michigan is likewise not in play.

Get ready to start thinking about whether Hillary will run in 2016, if the Democrats can retake the House in 2014, whether troops will come home sooner from Afghanistan than previously planned, funding Obamacare, the fiscal cliff, and other things.  This one is baked.

Obama's Path to 332 EVs (50.6% PV), Romney's to 206 EVs (48.3%).

Without further ado, here are my predictions, swing-state by swing-state (Obama/Romney):

Minnesota 53/45 (+7.5)

Nevada 53/46 (+6.5)

Michigan 52/47 (+5.5)

Wisconsin 52/47 (+5.0)

Pennsylvania 52/47 (+4.8)

Iowa 51/48 (+3.2)

Ohio 51/48 (+2.8)

Colorado 50/48 (+2.5)

New Hampshire 50/48 (+2.2)

Virginia 50/49 (+0.9)

Florida 49/49 (+0.1)

North Carolina 48/50 (-1.9)

Arizona 46/52 (-6.8)

Indiana 46/54 (-7.6)

Georgia 46/54 (-7.8)

Thus, expect only Indiana, North Carolina, and the lone electoral vote represented by the Congressional district containing Omaha, Nebraska to change from Democratic to Republican hands.  Florida appears to be too close to call, with early voting favoring Democrats despite a more restrictive window for early voting.  While Romney leads very narrowly in the average of polls, the average of polls modestly underpredicted candidate Obama's performance in 2008.  Happily, a razor-thin margin in Florida would not be conjoined with Florida again being our tipping point state, an honor that should go (fittingly, given its place in this campaign) to Ohio.

You're right to put Florida in the Obama column, despite Republican SOP voter suppression. I think the tipping point came in the past week -- maybe the past day or two -- as Romney's past stance on scrapping or privatizing FEMA resurfaced. Floridians know hurricanes, and Obama's effective response to Sandy was bound to resonate. It is, as you say, baked. To a crispy golden brown, and the oven timer just went off.

by acanuck 11/5/2012 - 3:42 am

I think the voter suppression / 6-9 hour waits puts Florida horribly in the "we haven't a clue" column. Glad it's not the lynchpin for the election this year.

by PeraclesPlease 11/5/2012 - 6:45 am (re: acanuck)

Nate's model, in its final shift tonight, moved Florida back to Obama by a narrow margin.  I agree it's all gunked up with what the officials in Florida have done.  I'll stick with my call.  The most popular call is 303 EVs for Obama; I'd of course settle for 270 right now.  6-9 hour waits are travesties, as are all rights you can't really or practically exercise.

by Articleman 11/6/2012 - 12:00 am (re: PeraclesPlease)

Right - Nate's model hones in on local sentiment. We don't have good models aside from past experience on what will get people to the polls, and if a force of nature like a hurricane or a force of corruption like these local leaders screw the process up, well hard to tell. (though it's harder to disrupt Obama's early voter run up ground game in places that allowed it)

What's also annoying is we've pre-stamped this kind of corruption with "but the show must go on", so no matter if a million votes are destroyed or diverted, a million voters disenfranchised, we must coronate on Nov. 7 because our media madness electoral process depends on it. So forget about lawsuits against obvious vote manipulation - that's just whiny baby stuff, conspiracy theory like 9/11. Even though Ted Olsen has booked all of November for legal fights should he need to. IOKIYAR.

by PeraclesPlease 11/6/2012 - 2:15 am (re: Articleman)

Processes depend on finality.  Democrats are better now at winning elections and at arguing for fairer processes.  They still have a lot of room to improve in winning the fight for election reform, as Florida and Ohio illustrate.

Twelve years ago, I concluded that lawyer involvement meant the process was flawed and had no interest in it.  Tomorrow, I'll be working voter protection doing some of the things you are suggesting.  No neutral on a moving train.  I didn't want to risk losing this election and knowing that I hadn't done something to preserve the franchise.

Years after Bush v. Gore, Ted Olson got Prop 8 right.  As Rocky said to Drago at the end of Rocky IV, we all can change.

by Articleman 11/6/2012 - 2:17 am (re: PeraclesPlease)

Obama overperformed his polls in Florida in 2008, and it sounds like Democratic GOTV has been successful there in getting the occasional voter to early-vote,  I strongly agree with your FEMA observation.  Policies matter.  No auto industry for you, Ohio.  No FEMA for you, Florida.  All politics are local, and Tip O'Neill would not approve.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 9:57 am (re: acanuck)

 

As a teacher in a behavioral health program for preschoolers in West Philly,

Hurricane Sandy forced me to stay home along with millions of other Americans up and down the Northeast corridor.

 

Fortunately I was lucky enough to have electricity and the time to dig up an old tune I wrote some years ago, rerecord it and make a video.

 

In reference to the presidential election, I think this song is apropos. I hope you enjoy!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kt8kerufmD8&feature=youtu.be

 

by Philly Katman (not verified) 11/5/2012 - 5:45 am

I hope to join the live blog for a bit on my Wednesday morning. School starts just as the polls on the east coast are closing. At this point, I can barely think about it. I'm too nervous. I surely hope you're right. 

Like Ramona, I do not understand how a man like Romney, who lies with impunity and is secretive beyond any other modern day presidential candidate, has made it to the finish line at all. I saw a video the other day of an amazing dude interviewing Romney supporters at Ohio rallies. If the "mainstream" reporters asked the questions that this guy asked, politics in the United States might have to be normal again. I'll try to find the link.

by Orlando 11/5/2012 - 8:32 am

Found it:

 

 

by Orlando 11/5/2012 - 8:34 am (re: Orlando)

Reporters do ask these questions, and like this guy, seldom correct the misperceptions. (to be fair, this type of interview is not really where you do it - but live TV interviews, Sunday talk shows, etc., they're just as non-participatory).

The video is hilarious - all these "freedoms" that have been lost, the Buddhists taking over the country. But that answers your question - these people don't remember any details, they just know Obama has "apologized" for America, is simultaneously Muslim/atheist/bad hate-whitey Christian, is waging war against religion, hates America, and is throwing around all our money. "The most important election of our lifetime", as the illustrious Meatloaf proclaims. They want their country back, even though they're not quite able to remember which country that was. They make Alzheimer's patients look like Jeopardy contestants. No wonder they still admire Bush - not finding WMD's is the same as misplacing your car keys, lost in the fog of time.

by PeraclesPlease 11/5/2012 - 9:05 am (re: Orlando)

You've just got to study it out, study it out:

I had a "conversation" with a Teatard at a townhall in '09 along the exact same lines.  I kept asking him to define socialism, he kept insisting he knew the definition.  Awesome.

 

by DF 11/5/2012 - 4:54 pm (re: PeraclesPlease)

Heh. I remember that lady too. I've come around to thinking that people who insist they are right in the absence of facts are too insecure to admit the lack of knowledge about something. It's sad.

by Orlando 11/6/2012 - 7:41 am (re: DF)

That could be part of it, but if you were really insecure about your knowledge and views, would you be shouting them at Chris Matthews?  I think it probably has more to do with psychological phenomena like confirmation bias and source amnesia.  Perhaps she was already leery of Obama and heard from someone she thinks she can trust, like someone on the teevee, that he's a Communist.  That knowledge sticks because it confirms her bias, but when asked about it she can't recount any details.  She just knows it's true.

by DF 11/6/2012 - 1:02 pm (re: Orlando)

Hope to see you.  It will go on forever, so maybe see you at the start and end if you get back from work.

I think Romney's lack of releasing tax returns makes his degree of success remarkable.  It illustrates well that in politics, one can sometimes by mere assertion get to ridiculous places, and the public and media will often not call you on it.  Put another way, merely saying or doing things seems to legitimate them to a large segment of the public.  No matter what they are.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 10:01 am (re: Orlando)

 Who is going to get the remaining 1.1?

by Aaron Carine (not verified) 11/5/2012 - 9:19 am

The folks under Obama and Romney on this page: http://www.politics1.com/p2012.htm

by Orlando 11/5/2012 - 9:28 am (re: Aaron Carine)

Gary Johnson .6% or so.  Stein .2% or so.  After that, Earth's telescopes are not strong enough to see such tiny planets.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 9:52 am (re: Aaron Carine)

I'm grabbing my 0.01%, and like Romney am "rising" too. Might even be about to "surge". Look out!

by PeraclesPlease 11/6/2012 - 7:56 am (re: Articleman)

Big Bird!

 

by AnonymousSF (not verified) 11/6/2012 - 5:22 pm (re: Aaron Carine)

A-man, I agree with your ultimate conclusions, although I am down in Florida right now and I would submit that, if the race down here is as close as you say it is, the president will come up short here.  It's despicable what is going on right now in Florida, beginning with the governor's refusal to permit early voting on the Sunday before Election Day.  As a result, American voters will be systematically denied the right to cast their ballots because of intolerable lines and, presumably, endless challenges.  And the year is 2012.

That's the bad news.  The good news is that we don't need Florida to win.  And so, like you, I look forward to four more years, and hopefully four far more productive years.

I've spent quite a bit of time over the last few weeks using social media in an often futile effort to convince folks I've known since kindergarten back in 1964 to vote for the president.  Suffice it to say it has been an eye-opener, i.e. to actually know the people who are like family to me who spout off about Obama being a muslim, or a foreigner, or a commie, or whatever.  This is a strange country indeed, and a scary one too.

In any event, what really prompts me to write this comment is to thank you so much for all of the analysis you have done during this election.  It's professional and top-knotch and I would match your work product with the best of the best.  I don't blow smoke A-man; I really mean that.  Nice work.

All the best,

Bruce

by bslev 11/5/2012 - 9:59 am

Hey Bruce, thanks.  The check is in the mail.

The Democrats still won the early vote in a state where they usually lose it big.  I am a strong believer that attempting to game processes energizes your adversaries and reduces your credibility with persuadables.

Hope you come by tomorrow.  Best, a

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 10:06 am (re: bslev)

Watching people in Ohio and south Florida stand in line for up to 5 and 6 hours to vote reaffirms to me that Obama has a silent majority, who at the very least have been mobilized by the attempts at voter suppression.  While the Republicans may have the edge in enthusiasm, I think the Democrats have the edge in determinism.  Republican voters are like soldiers in the days before the first battle, while the Democratic voters are like those soldiers in the aftermath of the Battle of the Bulge, weary, bruised but pushing forward. 

by Another Trope 11/5/2012 - 10:38 am

A-man, thanks for this and your other extremely encouraging posts along the way.

This election has been a tortuous path and I won't breathe easily until Wednesday morning. After the kind of money I have contributed, some of it out of retirement savings, there were times when I was very discouraged, particularly after the first debate. But I eventually came around to the view that it wasn't about the money, or even winning. It was about having a conviction and being willing to put skin into the game. Whatever happens tomorrow, I will hold that particular awareness.

The Ohio equation has special meaning for me. My dad was Dem. chairman of a county which may decide this election. I stay in touch with a few high school friends back there and it is odd that they are now so evangelical as to astound me, whereas in high school I was the lone evangelist who in their minds was an oddity. In any event my gut is that Ohio will be closer than is projected and I am comforted by the possibility of back-up in Virginia, etc.

Question. If Ohio flags, does it necessarily mean a weakness across the board in the battlegrounds?  

by Oxy Mora 11/5/2012 - 11:16 am

I think Ohio may be closer than projected too, but I think Obama will almost certainly win there.  The polls there have shown a remarkable lack of variability.  Romney essentially never leads.  McCain had more leads down the stretch in Ohio than Romney has.  Only Nevada has had more boringly stable polling.  Additionally, the banked votes make it very implausible that the Obama vote will underperform.  I think Romney hurt himself with the kitchen sink ads last week.  And he's not even in Ohio today -- spending his last day playing defense in Florida, Virginia, and New Hampshire.  That makes me think they think Ohio is lost.

If Ohio were an Obama loss, I think it would likely mean there was something idiosyncratically wrong with the polls there.  I suppose if there were a Romney surge in Ohio, you'd see it elsewhere, but there are no state polls suggesting that that I have seen.

I am glad you have drawn satisfaction from your commitment.  To me, it is about winning.  As Magic Johnson says in fourth quarters of games he broadcasts, this is winning time.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 11:36 am (re: Oxy Mora)

If Ohio were an Obama loss, I think it would likely mean there was something idiosyncratically wrong with the polls there.

Your volume of good work with polling and statistics indicates a faith in polling as a method, if done correctly. You even seem to believe in math. Suppose Romney was to squeak out a win in Ohio that gave him the Presidency. Suppose the vote there went contrary to polls going in and exit polls.  Suppose there were many apparently legitimate questions about counting irregularities. Would you then consider that the party which has shown a complete willingness to steal the Presidency might have done so again?

 Do you have any worries on that count?

by A Guy Called LULU 11/5/2012 - 1:35 pm (re: Articleman)

As a member of the reality-based community, I respond to facts.  If you hypothecate troubling facts, then I could be troubled by them.  Ohio 2004 wasn't, period.  Florida 2000 was.  If Romney wins Ohio and there is something suspicious about vote tallying, I will take it up at that point.

Romney will not win Ohio.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 1:42 pm (re: A Guy Called LULU)

And a champion you are, A-Man!

by Oxy Mora 11/5/2012 - 1:36 pm (re: Articleman)

This has been a very challenging election cycle.  As a supporter of the President, a win this time has the potential to be very satisfying to me.  Like you, I feel content with what I have done and am doing.  Time to eat the pie we baked.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 1:45 pm (re: Oxy Mora)

Great post, A-Man. Thanks for the way you've covered this over the last weeks and months.

The early-voting problems in Ohio and Florida finally helped me understand why the Obama campaign was so intent on mobilizing early voters. It was so the unconscionable delays and attempts at disenfranchisement would happen BEFORE Election Day, not on it.

In 2004, we had serious trouble in Cleveland when voters in Democratic districts were forced to wait hours to vote on Election Day itself, and many ended up not voting. Now we're having that fight three or four days before the election, when there's still time to win it.

by Doctor Cleveland 11/5/2012 - 11:58 am

It's interesting, this new process-oriented fight, in which Democrats try to enlarge the time-window for voting, and Republicans try to impose ID requirements and restrict the time-window. 

One can always move the needle further in either direction, but I believe the expansion of the franchise through early voting, especially when there is an Obama turnout operation like we have seen in 2008 and 2012, is far more impactful than the attempts to restrict the franchise have been.  That's just my view of it.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 1:28 pm (re: Doctor Cleveland)

I'm curious about those long lines.  Whenever I voted in the city our precincts were small enough so that everyone in them could vote on Election Day.  I don't remember ever having to wait more than 20 minutes in any precinct.  At least once our precinct was divided in two when the numbers grew too large.  We voted in the elementary school gym and one precinct voted on one side and the other on the other.  (So of course people were always standing in the wrong line.)

So why are these lines so long now?  Especially when they can vote over the course of many days?  How large are those precincts?  And if they're too large to accommodate the voters, why haven't they been divided?

Anybody know?

by Ramona 11/5/2012 - 9:49 pm (re: Doctor Cleveland)

Ramona,   From what I've read, most of the early voting sites are not the same as a voter's regular polling place.  They take several areas and assign one place to take care of the early voters.

I think both the Florida and Ohio Governors should be somehow penalized, held accountable for this travesty.  If some hadn't filed an emergency writ in Florida, Scott wasn't going to allow early voting - after the state superior court ruled against him, he went to SCOTUS, they refused to hear it and then Scott had to allow the early voting but because of time, instead of five weekends, only one.  Yes, they are both GOP and slime IMO.  But hey, doubt if they suffer any consequences.  Wrong, horrifically wrong that this is allowed.angry

by Aunt Sam 11/5/2012 - 10:51 pm (re: Ramona)

Because voting rights is a legitimate subject of federal protection, I wish there would be federal legislation to prevent situations where incredibly long lines frustrate the voters' rights.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 11:03 pm (re: Aunt Sam)

Me too.  Looks like it'll never happen now.  The Dems should have taken advantage of their advantage in 2009-10.  Think what they could have accomplished if only they had recognized what a once-in-a-lifetime gift they had there.

by Ramona 11/5/2012 - 11:18 pm (re: Articleman)

IMO, we've done not near enough to protect all voter's rights if this crap is ongoing and no doubt sanctioned by the like of the shadow donors and their cohorts.

by Aunt Sam 11/5/2012 - 11:26 pm (re: Articleman)

This issue has been discussed since I was a teenager, over 35 years ago. I read articles then detailing the problems and suggesting federal legislation. But nothing was done. Another democratic fail and its only gotten worse over the years.

by ocean-kat 11/6/2012 - 12:29 am (re: Articleman)

o-k, if you want to get really upset, read this about Florida:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/poll-watching_n_2078563.html

by Aunt Sam 11/6/2012 - 12:59 am (re: ocean-kat)

I hope everyone who had to wait in those lines remembered who forced them to do it.  This kind of thing should never happen, but it gets worse instead of better.  I want to see a mandate against all of the dirty tricksters but it doesn't look like it'll happen.  The Republicans are in no danger of losing the House, apparently.  That just kills me.

by Ramona 11/5/2012 - 11:15 pm (re: Aunt Sam)

Ramona, If you have seen any of the 'at rally' interviews of R/R voters, you would weep.  Spewing third hand garbage, one guy even accused Obama of giving preference to Buddhists and some dingbat woman said their freedoms were gone, she'd seen the small drone spying on her - gives credence to stupid is, as stupid does.  There may be change, but I'm thinkin' there is no hope for these idiots.

by Aunt Sam 11/5/2012 - 11:24 pm (re: Ramona)

I hope everyone who had to wait in those lines remembered who forced them to do it.

That is an interesting point. If they discourage a meaningfull amount of Democrats from voting they must also be pissing off a lot of Republicans. If I was forced by a Democratic political machine to wait for hours to vote for a Democrat I would make sure that they found out that I promised that next time if it takes more than 30 minutes I would switch my vote to their Republican opponent.

by A Guy Called LULU 11/5/2012 - 11:25 pm (re: Ramona)

This is an excellent point.  I also think that rampant TV coverage of long lines does not encourage high turnout on election day, and may slightly discourage it.  Romney needs to blow the doors off the polling places on election day.  The only way you can target discouragement is to visit it on specific neighborhoods only, and that is actionable under the law.

by Articleman 11/6/2012 - 12:03 am (re: A Guy Called LULU)

Yes, that's how it works. I used to live in Gainesville, FL and there was a church in walking distance I could vote on election day. It was never very crowded when I went there but sometimes when I drove by there were some moderate lines. To early vote I, and those from other precincts, had to go to the middle of the town to city hall. It was the only spot for all of Gainesville to vote early. No good parking, lots of traffic. It was difficult but once I found a parking space there weren't long lines there either.

I can't really say why the lines are this long this year. More voters, just more early voters, shorter early vote period, or some other reason?

by ocean-kat 11/6/2012 - 12:14 am (re: Aunt Sam)

I live in Florida and people are very unhappy both Republicans and Democrats over this.  I did some phone banking for Gotv.  They will be punished.  Gov. Skelator Scott will only have one term.

by trkingmomoe 11/6/2012 - 5:25 am (re: Aunt Sam)

In 2004 it was the black neighborhoods, Ramona. Simple as that. Make sure the majority-minority precincts don't have enough voting machines, and you slow it down to a crawl.

(This starts by projecting an artificially low turnout, and then allocating your resources so that you're not "wasting" them on low-turnout precincts.)

Today, as Aunt Sam says, it's because there are a limited amount of early-voting locations (such as county Board of Election offices). And you need to go through security, including a metal detector, to get in the building, so that slows entry down to one or two at a time.

But that's not the whole story: the other problem is that the Ohio Secretary of State, a Republican hellbent on making voting more difficult, has cut back the number of hours for early voting, so all the early voters are trying to vote at hence.

I voted early in the 2008 primary and general at the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections in downtown Cleveland, the place that you see people waiting in long lines to get into. And, especially for the primary, I waited a long time to vote because a single location has only a limited number of voting booths. BUT I waited for 45-60 minutes INSIDE the building, in a long line snaked around in a downstairs room. The building can accommodate 90-minute long line of voters inside. If people are lined up around the block outside, that wait is enormous.

by Doctor Cleveland 11/6/2012 - 2:52 am (re: Ramona)

The county next to mine here in Florida, closed 11 voting precincts in urban areas for Tuesday.  Sarasota County has only 5 polling places for Tuesday.  That is only a small examples of what is going on in Florida with Republican County Election Directors.  The early voting was limited to only one polling place in my county with very long lines for straight 8 days.  That is what is going on. 

by trkingmomoe 11/6/2012 - 5:18 am (re: Ramona)

Going bold on FL.  I like it.  PEC model had that call briefly.  I'm sticking with 305, but I will be quite pleased to see Joe Scarborough grow a mustache if you're right.

by DF 11/5/2012 - 12:04 pm

Drew Linzer on how you might end up being right about FL:

If, on Election Day, the presidential polls by Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, YouGov, and PPP prove to be accurate, then the polls by Rasmussen, Gravis Marketing, and ARG will all have been underestimating Obama’s level of support by 1.5% consistently, throughout the campaign. Right now, assuming zero overall bias, Florida is 50-50. The share of Florida polls conducted by Rasmussen, Gravis Marketing, and ARG? 20%. Remove those polls from the dataset, and Obama’s standing improves.

by DF 11/5/2012 - 1:34 pm (re: DF)

This is a variant on my "2008 Obama overperformed by 1 point in FL" and "in 2010 the Dems overperformed their final polls in all eight close Senate races by 3 points on average" arguments.  They have some force, because predictions (including Nate's model) are all basically credibility assessments and weightings viz-a-viz polls.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 1:40 pm (re: DF)

The new -5 today in Florida is a pretty strong indicator against my prediction, but then I realized when predicting that I was otherwise very close to Nate.  I am out in front of Nate on Nevada margin, but I thought, hey, I believe Florida to be right near zero and uptrending; there's a place for a reasonable distinction. 

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 1:39 pm (re: DF)

Outlier, A-man. Don't waver; we're golden.

It continues to bug me that media declare polls to have X% margin of error, without citing the full formulation: "considered accurate within X per cent, 19 times in 20." Meaning that statistically, every fifth poll is expected to err by more than the stated margin of error. Florida has been polled maybe 100 times this year. That's why we turn to aggregator/analysts like you and Nate Silver to make sense of it all.

(What bugs me even more is reporting on polls that doesn't even mention sample size, polling method or margin of error. But I digress.)

by acanuck 11/5/2012 - 2:16 pm (re: Articleman)

Misforming the sample and response bias would explain a -5.  To me, margin of error doesn't.  Those Foster/Baydoun and Gravis polls have tight margins of error, but they beg the question of what the polls are really measuring.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 2:34 pm (re: acanuck)

This article is such a hoot, articleman!  I just hope that the reader's understand that it is satire and you don't cause some of them to jump off a bridge on Wednesday.

God bless!

--W

by The Decider 11/5/2012 - 4:18 pm

Enjoy the Caymans, Decider.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 5:46 pm (re: The Decider)

The only ones jumping off bridges around here are Cowboys fans. Apparently your buddy Jerry Jones is too cheap to mount a running game. And stay home. It's hard enough to see the Cowboys lose every week without having to see your mug on T.V. as well. 

by Oxy Mora 11/5/2012 - 7:35 pm (re: The Decider)

Obama surge -Gallup LV Romney 49 (-2) Obama 48 (+2)

by Another Trope 11/5/2012 - 5:21 pm

One thing I never could have predicted would be that I would hear Jay-Z introduce Obama to "Encore" or that I'd hear him say, "If you're having world problems I feel bad for you, son. I've got 99 problems, but Mitt ain't one."

Very Black album heavy set from Jay in OH.

by DF 11/5/2012 - 5:41 pm

Wisconsin State Journal endorsed Romney yesterday.  Does it matter?

by KRXA Hal 11/5/2012 - 6:28 pm

No.  Absolutely not.  Obama hit 51 in four of his last six polls in Wisconsin and hasn't trailed in a billionty-billion polls there.  Meanwhile, Romney has never hit 50 in a single poll of Wisconsin. 

Hard to win 48 to 51, since they're having an election instead of guessing on a $49 vacuum on The Price Is Right.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 7:01 pm (re: KRXA Hal)

Wisconsin State Journal endorsed Romney only because Joe McCarthy was unavailable. No news there, in more ways than one.

by SleepinJeezus 11/5/2012 - 7:07 pm (re: KRXA Hal)

Back in my day as a student at UW, it was common to call it The Wisconsin State Urinal. Seriously.

Edit to add: It's kind of got a long-term reputation along the lines of The Washington Times.

by artappraiser 11/5/2012 - 9:05 pm (re: KRXA Hal)

Bring back the Capital Times!!!!!

http://host.madison.com/ct/

by bslev 11/5/2012 - 10:48 pm (re: artappraiser)

The best derisive newspaper nickname in America is found in Socorro, New Mexico.  There, the local paper is El Defensor Chieftain.  It is known to some as The Defenseless Chicken.

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 11:05 pm (re: artappraiser)

I am up and getting ready to go the polls this morning.  I won't be joining you during live thread later tonight but I did want to post this before I take my place in line here in Florida.

I was in Walmart last night going through children clothing mark down racks.  It was a $1 and $2 sale.  I met another grandmother there bargin hunting, that is raising kids too.  She asked me if I had voted yet and that led to a conversation about the ballot and long lines.  She was concerned about Obama losing and was happy to hear I was voting Dem.  Our ballot is a mess with 11 issues that are very long and confusing.  One of them take up a half of page of legal size paper.  I got my sample ballot out and showed her my notes.  I did some local phone banking and used those notes.  When I got done talking to her there was 4 other women that had pushed their carts over and was pretending to shop to listen to me talk to her. She wrote down some stuff and I told her what she needed to take with her so she would not have to vote provisional.  She hugged me good-by like we were friends.  Some one else came up to me and said thanks and promised to vote no on all of it like I suggested.  She told me she was a Republican voting for Obama and state Dems this time.  Non of the women were a minority.  I made it clear that the issues presented this way was a voter suppression tactic. 

I know there is a good ground game plan for today here.  Dems are lawyered up and plan to push to keep the polls open until everyone that is in line can vote.  The wind is at our back. This is going to back fire on the Republicans.

by trkingmomoe 11/6/2012 - 6:28 am

Trkng, can I just say you are a dear, dear woman?  If I lived near you I would hope you would allow me to sit by your side and listen.

Maybe it's because it's Election Day and I'm a blubbering basket case anyway, but I didn't expect to be wiping tears away at 6 AM.

That is some story.  Honestly.  Wow.

by Ramona 11/6/2012 - 7:15 am (re: trkingmomoe)

The way the voters are being handled has got people engaged here in Florida.  This is a hard state to poll because many are gone all summer and come back in time for the election.  People will stand in line today just to prove a point about not messing with their voter rights.  Thank you for the complement. 

by trkingmomoe 11/6/2012 - 8:09 am (re: Ramona)

I remember four years ago, the media was so invested in the horse race story, as they always are, but I was doing so much door-to-door and phone calling that I just knew. I could feel it. Tonight, I am siting helplessly in front of my computer, feverish (literally--Asian flu is the WORST), with no ability to concentrate and not wanting to read blogs that will make me freak out. Thanks for this story. It's keeping me sane.

by Orlando 11/6/2012 - 7:37 am (re: trkingmomoe)

We will bring it home.  You'll see.  Get some rest and get better.

by trkingmomoe 11/6/2012 - 8:10 am (re: Orlando)

START THE LIVE BLOG NOW! I'M READY. SCREW THE LAWYER STUFF. YOUR PUBLIC NEEDS YOU.

by Orlando 11/6/2012 - 7:38 am

Whistling in the dark here - where is everyone?

by PeraclesPlease 11/6/2012 - 7:58 am (re: Orlando)

Knocking on doors. Why aren't you?? smiley

by Orlando 11/6/2012 - 8:19 am (re: PeraclesPlease)

Like you, arms aren't long enough.

by PeraclesPlease 11/6/2012 - 8:23 am (re: Orlando)

I suppose I could go knock on doors. But my neighbors would think I was strange.

by Orlando 11/6/2012 - 8:29 am (re: PeraclesPlease)

Yeah, they all seem to be foreigners - what is up with our immigration policy?

by PeraclesPlease 11/6/2012 - 8:54 am (re: Orlando)

I just did my street. No one would admit to being a foreigner. Natural, I guess.

Slightly odder, no one would commit to one party or the other.

So I got some gelato.

by AnoniQ (not verified) 11/6/2012 - 9:25 am (re: PeraclesPlease)

Crafty foreigners, I tell ya. And that gelato - sounds foreign to me too. Any beignets around?

by PeraclesPlease 11/6/2012 - 9:35 am (re: AnoniQ)

A-man, Help! I thought that no vote counts could be made public until after all polls closed - If so, is this a farce or?????????

Early Vote Tally from OHIO!
County
Precs 9,550.
Rprtg 4,141.
Obama 605,546.
Romney 697,143

Good Start to the Morning for Romney.
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/NEWS010601/311060015/?nclick_check=1

by Aunt Sam 11/6/2012 - 12:08 pm

Early Votes Not Yet Counted in Ohio:

A Cincinnati.com front-page link to a chart with dummy data, created as a design template for election results, was inadvertently posted early Tuesday morning.

It purported to show early voting totals in Ohio counties. However, no votes have been counted yet – by law counting doesn't start until the polls close.

Cincinnati.com regrets the error.

 

by Doctor Cleveland 11/6/2012 - 12:20 pm (re: Aunt Sam)

Thanks.  I'll cancel the 911 call and add new blood pressure monitor to my shopping list, since the old one exploded trying to get reading.........wink

by Aunt Sam 11/6/2012 - 12:35 pm (re: Doctor Cleveland)

Funny how they invented fake data that can't be true.

by Articleman 11/6/2012 - 1:17 pm (re: Doctor Cleveland)

*dumney data

by DF 11/6/2012 - 1:22 pm (re: Doctor Cleveland)

What's wrong with dummy data? If we just waited for the smart voters, we wouldn't have enough for a quorum. Who were the winners?

by PeraclesPlease 11/6/2012 - 2:55 pm (re: Doctor Cleveland)

332, indeed. If Florida is won by Obama, which seems will be the case, Obama's total electoral vote count will be 332, exactly as you predicted. That said, you predicted he would take 50.6% of the popular vote, when he only took 50.1%. Looks like you've got some egg on your face!

But seriously, congrats on calling the electoral college vote exactly. Also, I'm really looking forward to some awkward silences from those who had it "in the bag" for Romney and who were talking about how liberally biased these types of projections were. (Not that I'd insult you by saying you didn't have a liberal bias, of course!)

by Verified Atheist 11/7/2012 - 7:18 am

Thanks, VA.  

Paging Michael Barone...

by Articleman 11/7/2012 - 11:02 am (re: Verified Atheist)

Nice work A-man.  You should be really proud of what you've done over the last few months.  Aces dude.  Forward!

 

by bslev 11/7/2012 - 11:21 am (re: Articleman)

Before taking a  bow, what about those 500,000 uncounted ballots in Arizona? I thought you were on watch there?

by PeraclesPlease 11/8/2012 - 2:00 am (re: Articleman)

The counting of late-submitted ballots will probably result in a change in the outcome of Barber (D) vs. McSally (R).  McSally leads by 400 votes, but Barber won the early vote heavily, and 40,000 of the 80,000 left to count there are early votes.  My gut tells me that the provisional votes likely favor Barber as well.  The margins in the statewide races are too great for the larger number of uncounted ballots in Maricopa to change the outcomes of other races.

by Articleman 11/8/2012 - 2:05 pm (re: PeraclesPlease)

A-Man, great forecast. You are not just a steam rolled, flattened, two dimensional replication of yourself!(great comments on Hal)

Quick question. Do you know offhand how many D vs. R. Senate seats will be defended in 2014. Seems that ratio would factor into Reid's thinking about the timing of filibuster reform.  

McConnell is up in 2014. I'm saving up for that fight. Ashley Judd?

by Oxy Mora 11/8/2012 - 2:31 pm (re: Articleman)

Oxy, thanks.  2014:  20 D, 13 R; 2016:  24 R, 10 D.

by Articleman 11/8/2012 - 5:12 pm (re: Oxy Mora)

wow, that number in 2016 probably has some Republicans a little anxious.  Just looking at the women and Hispanic swing to Obama, if Hillary Clinton runs with a good economy it could get very messy for the Republicans. 

by Another Trope 11/8/2012 - 6:05 pm (re: Articleman)

Comment 5242 at baseballthinkfactory, we love you.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/otp_november_2012_-_moneypoll_the_pundits_vs._the_election-data_nerds/P5200

by Articleman 11/8/2012 - 2:08 pm

So in the end did Nate call FL for Obama or Romney?

by Another Trope 11/8/2012 - 2:18 pm (re: Articleman)

He doesn't specifically "call" states - he gives probabilities. If the probabilities are super great (e.g. New York), you can draw a ready conclusion.

In the case of FL, he had Obama 53% chance of winning if I recall right, which means a gnat's hair preference, or the 49.9%-49.3% difference we're seeing.

by PeraclesPlease 11/8/2012 - 2:56 pm (re: Another Trope)

You're correct.  Here is another comment that explains it further

Nate's 313 EV that he has listed on his site is based on the probability of his simulations. It was a number that was never going to happen. It is basically a number based on the probability of Florida going to OBama as well as other non 90% and higher states going his way as well. If you were to do a straight whoever is leading the state wins the EV or whoever has the highest probability to win the states gets the EV then Silver nails the prediction since he called every single state correctly.

True. The small visual disconnect comes from the fact that his "303" estimate on his website doesn't seem to incorporate the blue shading of Florida on his map. If you adjust for that, his projections are as you say, 50 for 50, and the EV total also falls perfectly into line.

by Another Trope 11/8/2012 - 3:05 pm (re: PeraclesPlease)

When I made my predictions, Nate's last simulation showed Romney narrowly taking FL.  The next day, Nate ran his last simultations, and Obama became his narrow FL favorite.

by Articleman 11/8/2012 - 5:08 pm (re: Another Trope)

That comment says you're tied with Daily Kos. 

However will you live it down? ;-) 

P.S. Well done.

by AnoniQ (not verified) 11/8/2012 - 2:20 pm (re: Articleman)

Thanks.

by Articleman 11/8/2012 - 5:09 pm (re: AnoniQ)

Wow - this is crazy accurate! The tally's are in for the popular vote now and Obama did get the 50.6% as you said. When I saw the numbers, I thought a this was put out AFTER the election. Congratulations to you. You even called Ohio as the magic maker state...i.e. finalizing Obama's win. Not being a numbers person this whole thing is "magic". Scientifically based 'magic' of course ;). Great job! Sending this link to my friends.  

by Patricia (not verified) 11/14/2012 - 5:44 am

Thanks very much.  I actually missed the tipping point state -- it was Colorado.

by Articleman 11/14/2012 - 6:30 pm (re: Patricia)

Latest Comments

more