Michael Maiello's picture

    Capitalists Starting To See The Truth

    Investor Jeremy Grantham, well known for years and around the world (he manages more than $100 billion) has recently come around to the idea that some mortgage debt forgiveness might be necessary.  Given that Grantham invests in bonds from time to time, this is amazing stuff.  Bond investors hate the idea of debt forgiveness.  They usually prefer "debt repayment at all costs, or I get to take your stuff."  I recommend reading Grantham's latest letter to clients, which you can find here, or perhaps my own, shorter riff on this and other matters from The Daily.

    It's interesting to see some of the more thoughtful members of the professional investment community coming around to the fact that the severe income inequality that has emerged in the U.S. over the last forty years is an actual threat to the system.  Most of these guys are well placed at the top of the income heap so perhaps the ride towards inequality wasn't so bad for them but now people like Grantham and to a lesser extent PIMCO's Bill Gross are recognizing that it's tough for them to invest in, you know, businesses when their customer bases have been destroyed by the decline of American mass affluence.  It's tough for them to invest in sovereign debt of the United States when the tax base has been so decimated that 47% of the people don't even make enough money to incur an income tax liability.

    As Grantham puts it, we allowed "the vagaries of globalization" and "cheap labor from China" to lead us to this point without putting a ton of thought into the consequences.  We're now at a place where the richest 10% of Americans account for 50% of all consumer spending.  But, says Grantham, Hermes scarves, BMWs and Gucci are too small a segment of the consumer market to carry the economy.

    Most businesses, including most consumer businesses, would be better off with a richer customer base growing wealthier by the year.  That used to be the U.S. middle class.  But no longer.  Perhaps these corporations will try to make up the difference by selling overseas.  But it occurs to me that if Grantham is right and we blindly allowed globalization to define our economy, that some of our economic competitors will not make the same mistake.  China's government, it seems, prefers to define things than to be defined by them.  I'm glad I don't live in the kind of dictatorship that fosters a command economy but, you know, the alternative shouldn't be total thoughtlessness.

    It seems that some prominent capitalists are waking up to the notion that the inequities in our society need to be addressed.  Not eliminated, but addressed.  You can't do that without renegotiating some old deals and without either redistributing present assets or, more importantly, future cash flows.

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    So if capitalists wake up to the inequalities in our society and while the middle class slumbers on in a free market dream--will that mean that the capitalists are more concerned about the workers than the workers themselves?


    Very  good article in the Daily, Destor. Particularly liked your insight that the FHFA suits provide a strong moral backing for debt forgiveness of borrowers.  

    I think it's great that our top line investors, like Buffet and Grantham, get their best ideas when walking across Boston Commons or sitting in the bathtub. Makes it all sound so humanizing somehow.


    Good piece, destor.

    From Harold Meyerson's January 28, 2011 article in The American Prospect "Business is Booming", well worth reading in its entirety for additional data I don't want to include in this comment, at http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=business_is_booming:

    The role that even the most widely admired American companies, such as Apple, Hewlett-Packard, and General Electric, have played in offshoring American jobs has long been a subject of controversy. Their zeal for offshoring has lowered the prices of the goods Americans buy while increasing our trade deficit, shrinking our manufacturing sector, and flattening our wages. But to look at the employment numbers at Foxconn, Apple, Dell, or IBM—whose total worldwide workforce expanded from 329,000 employees in 2005 to almost 400,000 in 2009, while its U.S. workforce shrank from 134,000 employees to 105,000—is to come away with an even more disquieting thought: With each passing year, and even more so during the recession, America’s leading corporations grow more and more decoupled from the American economy. Their interests grow increasingly detached from those of our workers, our consumers—and our economic future.

    This growing detachment is certainly reflected in their revenues. In 2001, 32 percent of the income of the firms on Standard & Poor’s index of the 500 largest publicly traded U.S. companies came from abroad. By 2008, that figure had grown to 48 percent. Although precise figures on offshoring are unavailable from either companies or governmental bodies, the evidence of the growth of offshoring is overwhelming. A 2008 survey of 1,600 companies conducted by Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Conference Board (a group of leading corporations) found that 53 percent had an offshoring strategy—up from just 22 percent in 2005. “Very few” companies, the survey concluded, “plan to relocate activities back to the United States.”

    The implications of this shift in the conduct of American big business are profound—and terrifying...

    You wrote:

    As Grantham puts it, we allowed "the vagaries of globalization" and "cheap labor from China" to lead us to this point without putting a ton of thought into the consequences. 

    As the saying goes, a question for Grantham might be "who is 'we', kimosabe?"  There have been a number of commenters and advocates desperately trying to call attention to this issue, leading to the very situation we face now, for many years.  Most of these voices have been dismissed as wacky "leftists" for raising such concerns. 

    Better late than never, perhaps.  It would have been really, really helpful, however, had many more prominent businesspeople, investors, lobbies representing them, and commentators sympathetic to their interests and outlook seen beyond their noses some time ago, acknowledged the real legitimacy of these concerns, and participated actively and constructively with policymakers and advocates to try to address them. 

    We have remarkably reactionary, ideologically hidebound business lobbies in this country that seem almost always to be unwilling or unable to do this.  Maybe it's that they don't like the way folks calling attention to these issues dress or look, or the way they talk, or other aspects of their style, I don't know.  DFH's and all.

    But when the major business lobbies, and other individual movers and shakers who choose to do some organizing of their own, get involved, it's amazing how obstacles to policy proposals previously considered nonstarters all of a sudden become, well, starters.  Here's hoping that recent comments by Buffett and these folks you mention are harbingers of a strong, albeit badly belated, trend.


    Some good points, Dreamer.

    Recently I read in regard to Apple's i-phone that only 17 cents on the dollar of direct manufacturing costs went to domestic workers and suppliers. The balance was spent overseas.


    Good piece, D23. 

    3 Woots.


    Not sure where to put this, but Confidence Men: Wall Street, Washington, and the Education of a President, by Ron Suskind, due out this month, promises to make a large splash:

    http://www.politics-prose.com/book/9780061429255

     


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