Michael Maiello's picture

    Mitt Romney, Unchanged

    Fascinating piece in The LA Times about a call that Mitt Romney had with his donors.  Romney basically repeats the 47% argument, without the blunt language.  Obama won, says Romney, because he turned out throngs of people who want health care and the possibility of student loan forgiveness.

    For example:

    "Romney argued that Obama’s healthcare plan’s promise of coverage 'in perpetuity' was 'highly motivational' to those voters making $25,000 to $35,000 who might not have been covered, as well as to African American and Hispanic voters."

    In a lot of ways, this is more offensive than the 47% gaffe.  For one thing, it makes a lot of assumptions about African American and Hispanic voters, as well as people who make below the median national income.  But it's also a perversion of what government is supposed to do.  Romney believes that any time the government does anything to help its citizens that it is breeding a nation of supplicants.  This is, in fact, what Paul Ryan has argued, in plain language, in various drafts of his budget blueprint.

    It is, truly, antigovernment radicalism.  I just wonder if, at Bain, Romney saw every government contract that his portfolio companies entered into as a similar diminishment of will and character.  It's funny how so many of government's biggest critics run businesses that rely on the government as a major source of revenue.

    A few days ago, I subjected myself to reading the John Galt speech, on the idea that I might want to parody the thing, in some form, for a current creative project.  There's a bit where Galt harangues the people (well, he thinks they're subhuman) for thinking that they can have whatever they want just by allowing themselves to be tricked into electing some liar politician into a position of power.  This is exactly the sentiment that Romney expressed to his donors.

    The election was stolen, says Romney, by weak-willed government dependents out to protect the baubles that Washington bestows.  It's comical, given that Romney's well-heeled donors are probably the people with the closest ties to Washington.  They get their phone calls answered.  They have sway over legislation.  Their businesses are protected by underpaid soldiers, police officers and fire fighters.

    I hope that Romney is remembered for just one thing -- the frequent disdain that he's heaped on his fellow citizens.  The stench of that should rightly cling to Paul Ryan until he convincingly renounces it.

     

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    Comments

    Well, at least now he's no longer pretending.  As if we ever believed he wasn't. He is only proving that what we asserted about his opinion of the majority of the 99% is accurate.

    Obama advised today he will be inviting Romney to meet with him before year end to discuss Romney's proposals to improve the economy.  Would love to have a video of that meeting. 

    Thanks for the info, but gotta' say, for a thief - I'm feeling no guilt; but the truth is Mitt gave it away and I am eternally thankful.


    I guess I was a sucker. I already got healthcare. And I voted Obama.

    I voted that way cuz I thought I could get a case of Jayer-Gilles 2004 Echezeaux Grand Cru imported French vintage wine. Where is it?


    Hahaha... I want that too!


    I don't begrudge anybody fine wine.  But don't expense it when you're running for office, for Pete's sake! (Or, for Pete's sake.)


    Meet the Real Mitt Romney. He's genuinely, authentically a jerk.


    I have a close conservative friend from my Republican days who was also shocked and disturbed by various horrible comments dropped by Pat Robertson, etc. He actually is involved with a church organization that does exactly what Romney thinks made Obama win - give free things out to minorities. 

    This stuff is just ridiculous. It's racially tinged as hell and shows a general antipathy towards the electorate. No man has become president by insulting the people who would vote for him.

    Learn some self control, Republicans.


    Well put!

    I was pondering this subject just today.

    Rover had stated (not implied but stated) that Obama won the election per voter suppression.

    I mean if there was ever ever ever a man responsible for voter suppression in 2000 and again in 2004 (in Ohio) it was rover.

    Well Medved, the American Russian attempted to 'splain' all this by saying that the reason and the only reason Obama won the election was per voter suppression.

    Naughty ads were responsible for Obama's win in Ohio!

    Medved is like George Will; you can read some essay by the two conservatives and think:

    Well, the guy has a handle on the issue at hand; I mean I might disagree with him as to remedies but...

    Medved and Will will ignore the Radio Conservatives like Rush & Savage & Hannity & Breitbart (I guess that genius aint dead either) & all of FOX & all of the other right wing media (when we are supposed to assume that all MSM is liberal biased....

    Obama is a Kenyan born, anti-American, Muslim (but part of the Negro Spiritual anti-American complex) and socialist.

    And that aint rotten, lying, slanderous, libelous clap-trap?

    Naughty ads by Obama somehow suppressed the vote of good solid American Citizens?

    And I do not even have to cite the Romney lies let alone the Citizen United frauds perpetrating lies beyond disbelief over the airways the last three months--let alone the last six years or so!

    How does one respond to Medved in this context?

    Oh well that is enough. These people are in the first three stages of grief and they end up looking like liars who have began--once again--to believe in their own lies.

     

     


    Well, here's the problem:
    Romney was giving away free stuff too, but he was looking to give free stuff to the wrong group of people!

    I mean, what is there, about 5 million millionaires in this country? He wanted to give all of them tax breaks.

    But, there is over 200 million eligible voters (minus the millionaires, of course) that he wanted to take stuff away from. Stuff like Social Security and Medicare.

    How did he expect to win by giving stuff to such a small group of voters and taking stuff away from the bigger group? Huh?

    Seriously, what a dumb move.
    Obviously he hasn't got a clue how stuff works.

    cheeky ... Shift+R improves the quality of this image. Shift+A improves the quality of all images on this page.


    After two Bush terms, I don't know if it's a dumb move.  From Romney's perspective, he can spread benefits in one of two ways: to the masses or to those with influence.  Since we're a culture that accepts, with very little objection, vast wealth in the presence of widespread insecurity, Romney's gambit wasn't entirely stupid.  Elections have been won his way.

    Though, he's a particularly unlikable sort to try this.  Bush somehow knew how to put the correct foot in his mouth.  Romney, not so much.


    I wasn't looking at it from Romney's perspective. I was looking at it from mine. I still say it was a dumb move and if I had been a Romney advisor, I would have told him so. I would have gotten fired, but that's alright. I could then collect an unemployment check -- some of that free stuff I didn't earn.

    Do you think Romney was gambling when he chose to side with the richies instead of the poories? This is hard for me to conceptualize (kind of an odd confession coming from an Indian, no? Not understanding the gambling aspects.). I've mostly thought elections were won or lost on messaging.

    It's possible I could be wrong, but if I am, it's the very first time that's ever happened. Ever.cheeky ... Shift+R improves the quality of this image. Shift+A improves the quality of all images on this page.


    I suspect that he was, in fact, gambling.  The simple math gives the advantage to the vast majority of the country, were everyone to vote their interests.  But the minority has an outsize influence on the entire discourse.  In so many other countries you see minorities keeping control.  I think it happens here more often than not.  But that Romney was particularly bad at playing the game.

    As for gambling and Native Americans -- another bad idea exported by the U.S., right?


    Now I am wondering if the landslide election that no one is calling a landslide might change the concept here in the U.S. that the majority of votes, made up of voting minorities and women, might have learned just exactly how much power they actually do have? I'd like to hope so.

    (Actually, Indians were pretty well versed in the ways of gambling way before the white man showed up with their boom sticks. Youse guys didn't teach us anything new about that one.)


    Romney was running the old everybody gets a tax cut scam. So he was giving stuff to everybody. But finally the people caught onto the scam. The middle class gets a couple of thousand while the top one percent get 5 times the yearly salary of a middle class tax payer. Kinda like if you have 5 kids and everyone gets a present for Christmas. Here's a candy bar for you, and here's a candy bar for you, and here's a candy bar for you, and here's a candy bar for you, and here's a brand new 21 speed bike for you. See everyone gets a gift!


    Romney's election loss was the result of a fundamental strategic error -- the Republican Party and the Romney campaign's callous disregard for:
    the rights and needs of women ... and Latinos ... and African Americans ... and gays ... and college students ... and poor, struggling families ... and

    ... simple math.

    The only way that Romney could have won is if the Republican operatives at the state level had been successful in their attempts to undermine the ability of all citizens to exercise their right to vote.

    On the other hand, Romney convincingly won the white male, Christian heterosexual, private sector employer vote, so it's really a victory for all truly patriotic Americans.
    At least, that seems to be the rationalization being attempted by some reality-challenged conservative pundits and bloggers.


    Would it be too coarse to say that I'd like to dig up Ayn Rand and re-animate her so that we can officially hang her in Effigy along with Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Karl Rove and Mitch McConnell?  (Effigy being a small town outside Altoona, PA.)  

    (The preceding punch-line comes courtesy of an old Mad Magazine from the 1960's.)

     

     


    Nope!  Of course, if you brough her back the first thing she'd probably say is that, at her age, she's entitled to Social Security and Medicare.


    Ooooo, Zombie Stuff-wanters!!  

     

     


    She somewhat infamously did this before dying, though supposedly it was under some protest to her legal counsel.  According to this, she spent the last six years of her life enrolled in both programs.


    C'mon... everyone knows that wealthy people don't want stuff.... (lol).


    I don't quite see the outrage, and it might help us to see how economically focused our approach actually is.

    The election seemed to be only about a few crafted baubles for constituency groups plus a few gaffes. An exception was the cynical October attack re: Benghazi, sadly the only time foreign policy appeared in the campaign aside from brazen sucking up to Netanyahu.

    In the case of the GOP, they have their line that  it's the rich's money, so cutting taxes isn't asking for favors - it's keeping what's rightfully theirs. This has been GOP catechysm for decades.

    To the GOP's "credit", they threw in some standard "moral values" issues to get their panties in a wad - "Obama destroying freedom", abortion, war on Christianity. That 2 of these were entirely contrived should say something, & is worth a much larger discussion.

    And to the GOP's credit, they got hoisted on their own petard - anti-Medicare, anti-auto bailout (anti-union), anti-immigration - right to take their lumps where advertised. Romney's loss of female voters was more collateral damage from other GOP candidates than his shifting, vague policy proclamations. 

    But then there's the Democratic side, as addressed by Romney. First, we have to acknowledge that despite all the laughing at Mark Penn for poll-driven campaigns, it's now gospel between Axelrod as Emperor and Nate Silver as Pope, with the "election" being about ~5 early states in the primaries, and 8-10 swing states in the general elections. Take micro- and nano-polling in each of these states, combined with blitzkrieg media campaigns and focused ground movements, and we've got a more tactical operation than Patton could imagine. (voting was down 9% vs. 2008 in the non-swing states, tied or greatly above in the swing states)

    Aside from black voters, who overwhelmingly supported Obama despite some misgivings expressed in polls, 14.3% black unemployment and discomfort with gay issues, most groups got some handout or key benefit to carry their hearts. (Yes, blacks got some promises too, but it's unrealistic to expect the black community would have voted much different under most real-world scenarios - not intended as criticism)

    Hispanics got the DREAM Act and a promise to cut those 400,000 expulsions a year (a record under Obama's term), combined with health care benefits for poor immigrants - consider both a great economic benefit. Even for a state like North Carolina, where Hispanic population is relatively low, the 100,000 vote difference between candidates made Hispanic vote extremely valuable. (Black vote has grown and white vote has decreased in NC - expect more shift in the future)

    Gays, while getting significant social issue advancement and general acknowledgment from Obama, also have a huge economic stake in benefits such as social security and healthcare for spouses. (Curiously our "conservative" Mexican neighbor legalized gay marriage 2 years ago and approved Social Security for gay spouses earlier this year, while we're still trudging along)

    Women will get a huge economic benefit from ACA in terms of preventive care and checkups - the contraceptive issue just brought this home. Rush's attacks on Sandra Fluke just emphasized the costs - even less-effective condoms 2x a week work out to $150 a year (with women often paying), the cost of a pregnancy is unsupportable for many, and perhaps 50% use of the pill is for hormone treatments, especially for seniors - oops, guys - way to lose your conservative old folks vote, especially tied to your policy attacks on Medicare. [Americans really are children when it comes to discussing anything with sex and internal plumbing, and so women get to look on with disgust as male politicians especially say stupid, misinformed things about health treatment they should keep quiet about, as they know practically nothing except half of the costs]

    The Mideastern swing state results largely revolved around blue collar workers and the auto bailout issue in the end, tied in with standard college & urban demographics. Romney's image as a businessman to right wrongs failed when it came out how he'd helped ship all the Delphi jobs overseas with a gun to the goverment's head (with earlier attacks on the way he gutted companies as a vulture/venture capitalist, but I don't think these earlier attacks were sharp enough to draw proper blood).

    While Romney got a surge by appearing normal in Debate #1 (with the media's overhyped support for this strange low expectation), I think Obama got a decent surge from Hurricane Sandy especially across the east coast, both as a guy-in-charge image as well as expectations that he'd spend more quicker to help solve the problems. (As Artappraiser notes, FEMA may not be doing the bang-up job expected, but that was the feeling going into Nov 6, and it's still likely Romney despite anti-FEMA statements would have done about the same - though not as bad as Ron Paul with DIY levees).

    The only area I doubt the economic influence is with students - despite student loans &  education worries, I don't think those were the main factors in how they voted.

    So while it sounds cynical for Romney to focus on economic issues - and Jindal quickly slapped him down - for all our starry-eyed idealism, we should think about the economic issues that do drive voters' votes. It's just not polite to say it in public, but "a chicken in every pot, a car in every garage" got Hoover the 1928 election despite the calamity that awaited.

    The American populace are whores, we always vote for who we believe will give us the most, as Matt Taibbi and Anne Applebaum explain.

    Our whole 18-24 month election process is a thinly disguised effort to figure out who will benefit us the most, and not those suckers over there. Since it's hard to split the difference (Romney said it as 53%-47%, the actual vote was 51% to 48% the other way, but spending will have to go up for 60% of the populace to cover the base and make the next campaign possible. Thus spending goes up even for those "small government" guys, just goes up for a different batch of constituents)

    So Romney states an inconvenient truth, while also missing out on his own incompetence (yes, he led up drama-less campaign up until the Olympics - after that, he knocked enough china off the shelves to fill a small dumpster) and exactly what benefits his donors were expecting in return.

    Wall Street purportedly supported Romney, but my guess is they played both sides against the middle and have assured themselves yet another huge payday (plus bonus!!!). Too big to fail indeed.


    All's I know is that Romney says the Government is gonna pay for trillions of dollars worth of condoms.

    Which - having done the arithmetic - must mean either the average American male has sex about once every 18 seconds, or the U.S. is planning on attracting some (above-average) Canadian males who require those expensive XXXL models. 

    It's arithmetic - long division.


    Peracles, I guess it's always been an argument of progressive politics that people will get behind a government that does good things for them.  I think it's sad and cynical of Romney to try to present that natural relationship as some sort of filthy deal or, in effect, vote buying.

    And when you say things like, "Hispanics got the DREAM Act and a promise to cut those 400,000 expulsions a year (a record under Obama's term)..." I just don't see it that way.  I'm not Hispanic but I got the DREAM act, too.  I know that you and I differ big time on immigration policy but I definitely see it as something much more fundamental to the country than a nod to this or that ethnic group.

    In the end, if Democrats can't give the public a government that does things that they like, then what's the point?  We might as well all be Grover Norquists.


    My main point is that you can look at these things in economic terms, and the result's pretty much the same (aside from Quinn's XXXL condoms - he told us they were Santa hats for the cold winter up there, but if it keeps him somehow from breeding, all is good).

    Re: DREAM Act & immigration, please discuss - I'm not hardened on this issue, I'm just disgusted that no one on the left seems to ever discuss it in terms other than "yes, we need more immigrants and you're racist if you disagree", vs. say what's the long-term effect and is that agreeable. I'm worried it'll let Quinn apply for permanent residence or even citizenship, which could cause calamity and global warming. On the more serious side, the DREAM Act is primarily associated with Hispanics, as introduced orginally by Illinois' Gutierrez. I know it doesn't directly affect Obama's historic expulsions of immigrants, and it's surprising that Obama gets a pro-immigration impression despite heavily increasing deportations (okay, not surprising as heavy-handed as Romney was on the issue, but still)

    As for government doing things we like, sure - and economic bounties are part of that. Part of pooling the collective need in government is to make those bounties more affordable. Sesame Street is a bargain, universal health care needed but more expensive, infrastructure required in not always equal ways....

    I'm just more and more cynical that 90% of people care about and research more than 2-3 policies rather than hear a fairly superficial version on whatever biased news they monitor and vote their tribe & pocket book. Of course news & information was manipulated in the past - it's odd but expected that in the internet age, disinformation would be even more effective.


    There are some things about immigration policy that to me feel like no-brainers.  Like, we shouldn't deport people brought here as children by their parents because, growing up here makes you culturally American.  I know a girl who's been here since she was 2.  She just graduated from high school.  Doesn't have citizenship.  She could technically be deported to Mexico, a country she barely knows.  That just seems wrong and cruel to me.

    From a cultural standpoint, I think the more immigration the better.  We need new ideas.

    From a jobs standpoint -- more people means more demand, means more jobs.  Eventually.  I recognize there will be dislocations.  But there are already dislocations.

    If we have a demographic problem (aging population) that can only be solved by either forcing people to have babies or by letting young people move here.

    Finally, and this is me going off the deep end, I think it's a little silly that we organize ourselves by accident of birth.  I think we need greater worldwide mobility.  We have it with currency and assets but not people and therein lies a real tension in the global economy and in world society.


    I'm hard pressed to settle on a reading of the history of America, a nation of immigrants, that carries many warnings about the fundamental dangers of immigration.  America, at its best, is a shared set of ideals.  We should want and welcome anyone who wants to participate in that project.

    PP keeps sounding the alarm about Mexicans, but I'm still not sure why.  It sounds an awful lot like Michael Savage's "language, borders, culture" mantra to me.

    No tengo miedo de los mexicanos.


    I've no idea what Michael Savage says, and I can't imagine why you need that jackass when I've stated my reasons a hundred times here. Fucking insulting.

    If we're going to be a melting pot, I want a real melting pot with at least 10 new cultures coming in to mess things up, not 50%+ Mexican or a bunch of anal conservative Batista-loving anti-Castro bastards just to replace whites and keep our policies in the Kennedy years.

    Is that such a difficult concept to understand? We've what, 200 countries in the world yet we need the majority of our immigration from a single one? Darwin might describe it as working against over-specialization.

    And I have a fucking degree in Spanish Literature and have read enough Spanish and Latin-American novels and history in the original Spanish (including Mexican  & Cuban writers, Carlos Fuentes & Juan Rulfo & Alejo Carpentier, very nice thanks) and lived & worked in a Spanish speaking country to not need to establish more Hispano-cred. Mexico's great where it is, I'm all for NAFTA and mutually beneficial trade, I'm fine with balanced guest worker agreements, and fine with migrant labor within reason and fine with Mexican trucks driving across the US if driver/trucks inspected, happy to lift the Cuban embargo yesterday.

    I'm not thrilled with 70 million more Mexicans in the next 35 years, just like I wouldn't be thrilled with 70 million French-speaking Quebecois moving down if there were that many, or 70 million Yugoslavians or 70 million of any other culture, like I lived through a huge influx of Mandarins and wasn't thrilled. Come to think of it, I'm not that thrilled with 70 million more typical Americans in the next 35 years, so anything we can do to spice things up and create *DIVERSITY* would be very much appreciated by me. How about starting with "B"- Botswana, Borneo, Brunei, Bosnia, Bolivia, Brazil, Burma, Bhutan, Bahrain, Belize, Bangladesh - perfect, sounds like a good mix, 1/11th from each. Me alegre.


    I guess I'm a little more libertarian on this.  I like the idea of a melting pot and, so far as the ingredients go, I'm willing to let them choose themselves.

    Which, I guess means I'm more Guy Fieri than Anthony Bourdain on the politics of immigration, though I'm a heck of a lot more like Bourdain in the kitchen.


    Well, I would have been happy to have it happenstance as well, until someone jacked up the Mexican component to 11. When I studied Spanish, I thought it was to better share a localized rich & mixed historical culture, not as a survival tool for the next Gran Jefe. Somewhere the jackasses in Washington screwed that concept up.


    Like him, you posit a sudden influx of immigrants from a particular ethnic group is going to pose a NEW, BIG PROBLEM.  I've read you citing the importance of maintaining the primacy of English, as if that current circumstance was somehow a matter of fiat to begin with.  You're projecting 70 million more Mexicans and saying that's gonna be a BIG, HUGE PROBLEM.  Por que?

    We don't border Bhutan and we haven't had an immigration policy that was based on ethnic quota since... 1965.  What if more Bolivians want to come than Burmese?  That shouldn't happen because it upsets your quota?  Why you find it strange or alarming that we have a large number of people immigrating into a region that was historically home to them is beyond me.  Your explanation here has not increased the clarity on that point.

    I don't mean the comparison to Savage as an insult, but when I read your screeds on this topic you sound an awful lot like him to me, regardless of what degrees each of your hold.  You're both positing a new danger from this one ethnic group.  There really doesn't appear to much historical basis for it, nor should we assume that the immigration rates will hold constant for the next 35 years.  It was not the same 35 years ago.

    And I'm not the only one here who can't seem to track with your point of view on this.  Are we all just librul idjits?


    Ummmm, yes, I'd argue that there is a problem of liberal idiocy on this, DF. i.e. A political debate within a country can be heavily shaped by the particularities of that nation's political system. More Hispanics in the U.S., right now, is welcomed by the Left in ways it surely would not be at other times, or in other countries.

    For instance, Canada is wide open to immigration, but if you told us that suddenly it was going to mean that over the next 25 years we got 7 million more French, or 7 million Chinese, or 7 million Muslims, or 7 million of any one thing, damn straight that would raise a huge alarm.

    Because.... 7 million of one thing is not the same as 7 million of a dozen things.

    People in a nation, or a community, or a family, have certain dynamics, and rates of change, and tighter and weaker links with other groups. It's not just a world of individuals. So letting in 70 million refugees from an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange would create a whole different country than 70 million Upper Class Englishmen.

    I'm not sure this is to say anything even halfway racist.


    I'm afraid this is an issue where it may be impossible to get anyone on the American Center-Left to even hear, PP.

    People are just so heavily shaped by the Right screaming their racist views that they've piled hard into the "pro-immigration" corner over these past decades. They don't care if you speak 7 languages and have lived in a dozen countries, pal, any sound you make on this issue is gonna be heard as if it's racist.

    Personally, I'm torn. I've got multiple, cross-cutting views.

    1. I absolutely agree that boosting the Mexican proportion of the U.S. population does very little to add "diversity" at this point. That's pretty much just math. It'd be the same as if Canada decided to raise its proportion of French-speakers as a path to linguistic (or cultural) diversity. If the U.S. wants "diversity" - and that's a knee-jerk defence many on the U.S. Left have used to defend immigration in general from Right-wing attacks - then that should logically lend itself to saying, "Let's have fewer Mexican immigrants."

    2. That said... there's history. And history - combined with an at least somewhat intertwined reality today - says.... "Gee. That Mexican border smells a bit arbitrary." I would also add in nasty linkages through the drug trade, the bulk commodity trade and multi-nationals in the wider region, and some brutal U.S. interference in Caribbean and Central American politics that mean the chaos that followed is at least partially owned State-side. 

    3. Then... there's my own personal mix of criteria on who I'd like to see come in. Personally, I'm no fan of this shit Canada does right now where so many wealthy and well-educated citizens of the developing world get to come here. There are an awful lot who are straight-up intending to do nothing more than create a backdoor in case their wealth gets challenged at home. I prefer to take the poor, refugees, or those being persecuted. There will always be a proportion of the wealthy and well-educated whose loves lives or career paths bring them in, and to them I say, "Great. Welcome."

    4. But I don't buy all the hype around how much they add to the economy. At least, not the way it's conventionally argued. Again, a lot of people on the Left are accepting a lot of conservative economic modelling here, as long as it supports more immigration. Well, gee, the 1% and Big Business like immigration, and downward pressure on wages and prices, and so their models say that's great. Wow. Colour me shocked. But as far as I'm concerned, I want to see wages of $20 an hour and above as the baseline, and if that means a lot of shitty work and shitty establishments have to go under, then so be it. People dislike government subsidies to save shitty businesses, well, much immigration is simply a government-permitted subsidy to shove immigrants into shitty reactionary businesses.

    5. As for the immigrant contribution to the economy through entrepreneurship, I'd say it likely exists and I'm more interested in that aspect of how that contributes to an economy. But you might run your immigration processes differently if you were after "more diversity + helping poor refugees + economic growth through entrepreneurship versus simply "boost the economy through low frigging wages for immigrants." 

    6. Culturally, even though I live in THE big global proponent of "multiculturalism," I'm actually not all that keen on certain aspects of some foreign cultures, and on certain ways of adapting. I've got no problems with people speaking their own languages, celebrating, being educated in it, etc. But I do think there should be some requirement to also learn English or French, to also participate in the public school system, etc. That way, at least there's a significant portion of life which is shared, or mixed.

    7. And I also think there has to be real, and smart, controls over the numbers of immigrants arriving in any one area at any one time. There are a lot of idiots out there that go on about how they don't mind the size of the influx, and the growth of more global cuisine etc. seems fine to them. But. I'd simply note that human beings tend to have a certain lifespan, and there may actually be limits in terms of how much change we can take in a single lifetime. I've thought about it, and if Canada ends up 90% Asian someday, that doesn't dishearten me or upset me very much. But. If it happens in my lifetime, then yes, that's too fast. I want, when I retire and die, to be able to go with friends and see bits of the city and country I grew up in, from churches to arenas to parks and rivers and retail areas, you name it. I, and my friends, have in many cases fought realm battles to build these things, and to save these things, and I'm not sure the interests of immigrants get to over-ride our views entirely. For instance, if I've worked to preserve farmland or an historic area, and people have voted for that, and it has some value, I'm not sure those wishes should simply be erased as we add another 100,000 immigrants to an area each year. 

    8. Yes, this is a bit communitarian. But I think anyone who's not a bit communitarian is... an idiot. No ultra-urban New Yorker or Wisconsinite or beach-boy Californian or New Orleanite would happily see all that they knew go under the wrecking ball. Change is plenty fast as it is, thanks, and while most of us can handle some immigration, let's keep it a bit calm.

    9. I'm an immigrant. Things are complex. Big whoop.

    10. I wish the NHL would solve their problems, so that all those nice hockey-playing immigrants could come play here more often.


    1. Personally, I'm not big on the contemporary notion of "diversity."  I'm more of a come as you are kind of guy.  Diversity by fiat just smells wrong.

    2 - 9. I'm more or less in agreement.

    10. As a proud American, I'm sworn to ignorance of the NHL.

    Also: American culture has some pretty detestable aspects.  Will immigration cure that?  I don't know, but I do know it's not all so great that I want to put up a moat around it as-is.


    The immigration changes in 1986 and 1990 were basically by fiat (or few realized what they were doing and the effect it would have) plus the huge swell in illegal immigration. I don't pretend that there's any way to stuff the genie back in the bottle, nor do I necessarily want to, but maybe half a genie would be a good compromise?


    Sooo..... I get 1 and 1/2 wishes?


    No, you bring the bottle and I get 1 1/2 wishes. The 1/2 would probably be something relating to you, huskies and something physically humiliating *all* the way to Baffin Island. Guess I better ask for the other 1 first.


    I think I agreed on everything there, including you might not have noticed (or it accidentally got erased) that I like the Hispanic mix in LA basin, New Mexico/Colorado, Tejas - historically rich Spanish tradition from 1500's on - which is why I learned Spanish primarily. I even had a visiting Spanish prof from Cadiz laughingly tell me the Spanish would overrun us. I just didn't realize he meant within 30-50 years, nor am I sure he realized it, as that was before the big boom in immigration & birthrate.


    I'm afraid this is an issue where it may be impossible to get anyone on the American Center-Left to even hear, PP.

    I don't believe this is at all accurate. I haven't seen any surveys but my experience is there is a large variety of views on this subject among the left.

    I live 3 miles from the Mexican border in the center of a major immigrant corridor to Tucson. No More Deaths and the Samaritans come by weekly to drop off food packets, water, blankets, socks etc. I don't believe in illegal immigration but I do believe in compassion so I take the goods and pass them out when Mexicans pass through.

    All the people from NMD and Samaritans are fairly liberal. Some would actually do everything they could to help the immigrants get to Tucson and beyond and will get quite upset if I express my views about illegal immigration. But many have conflicted views about the situation and participate only because Mexicans are dying in the desert.

    PP seems to have two problems. The one focused on in this post is 70 million more immigrants by 2035. I too would have a problem with that. But I think its hyperbole. There's just aren't 70 million jobs for illegal immigrants and they won't come if there aren't enough jobs. 70 million Mexicans didn't come in the last 23 years and the flow has slowed down in the last few years. But how ever many might come we do need to deal with this issue with some sensible policies. There are several guest worker type programs being discussed.

    PP's second issue, focused on in other threads, is the Mexicans that are already here and the difficulty he sees in their assimilation into American culture. I also don't see this as a problem. There are an estimated 12 million illegal Mexican immigrants in the US, not anywhere near 70 million. The US has a population of over 300 million most of whom have already assimilated quite well into American culture. I really don't see how assimilating 12 million more Mexicans is going to cause that big a problem. Arizona has one of the largest hispanic populations and assimilation seems to be working fine. Really, Tucson and Nogales seem just like American cities to me, just with a Mexican flavor. I actually prefer the Mom and Pop stores in the more Mexican areas to the big box franchises. We need to come up with some path to citizenship for those already here.

    So yeah, illegal immigration is an issue we should deal with but its not a crisis. This issue could be easily dealt with if the republicans didn't love to demagogue it so much for political purposes. I just don't see any reason for fainting spells over our quintessential American culture being ruined, I tell you, totally destroyed by too many Mexicans.


    I'm working with standard population predictions for Hispanics - go to the Pew Hispanic research center for one. Currently, Hispanic population is rising as much (more?) because of birthrate, not immigration. So too late - your "they won't come" is now "enough are already here". No, it's not just the illegal population. It was the original amnesties, the boosted quotas in '86 and '90, the visas for reuniting families, the higher than average birthrate, plus the illegal immigrants, and now a bit of the DREAM Act (fairly insignificant compared to other categories).

    So yes, Pew predicts there will be about 85 million more Hispanics by 2050, ~130 million total, say 100 million of them Mexican. The border areas will have more and more ties to Mexico, there will be increasing amount of Spanish spoken, and as demographics has shown the last decade, there will be increasing Hispanic spread across most states, and likely more and more cross-border cultural and political ties with Mexico. 

    The other thing you miss is political clout. For the last 50 years we've had this counterproductive embargo on Cuba because there's this voting bloc of hyper conservative anti-Castro Cubans sitting in Florida that everyone wants to suck up to, however stupid the policy. And there are only 1.2 million Cubans in Florida, 1.8 million nationwide. What are the dumb policies we'll enact as Hispanics get more and more used to voting as a bloc, at a size up to 100 million voters? What will be their key issues? Mexico's PRI party has held power for over 70 years - how much will that political model take root in the US?

    Unlike blacks, Hispanics have no qualms about throwing their vote to the other party to get what they want, plus they'll have more and more seats from both parties. And it's already been announced election post-mortem that old white guys are just an embarrassing thing of the past - well, I can take a hint.

    (Right now Republicans are meeting in LA to figure out how to quickly curry favor with Hispanics to regain some relevance. Guess what policies are getting top billing?)


    When a child is born here, they are no longer considered part of the "foreign born" populations they are Americans. So now you are talking about pure, 100% Americans PP. Americans, Hispanic Americans, with emphasis on the word American.

    So now you've moved from your bizarre quota system of immigration, to making the claim that your 70 million number includes people born here, so it includes Americans. These people aren't different from other American's either, if you are born here that makes you an American. Your parents heritage doesn't change that at all. But they also fall out of your category of foreign born immigrants, and they are no longer included in the category of foreign born peoples because they are born here, in America, clearly making them Americans.

    I know you have a bias against Mexican's and you prattle on and on about them taking over the country, but you have to keep your numbers straight you cannot include people of Mexican descent born here, they drop out of your 70 million number, because, well they are now considered Americans. Oh and as a note, this is one of the logical disconnects in your made up number and in your entire argument.


    I didn't say "foreign born" - I said Hispanic population.

    I'm sure you'll find weird ways to misunderstand everything in ways I didn't intend, and I'm sure you can fathom how immaculately a baby loses its Hispanic-ness by being born on US soil.

    But when the Pew Hispanic research center discusses Hispanic population by year 2050, they're including legal and illegal immigrants as well as newly born Hispanics.

    Numbers aren't made up - you're welcome to use teh Google for it if that won't get you twisted up like these other issues.

    Regards


    You are mixing two different datasets Peracles, that is your problem. Your primary data set is foreign born Hispanics, with you, it is limited to Mexicans. Then you say all Hispanics, and expand the number to 70 million in 2035, and you are claiming they will all be Mexican, but then muddle your original claim by including the native born American children of said immigrants, and then making up a number and including them in that number. Demographically they fall into two different categories, one being foreign born, the  other being Americans of Hispanic dissent, but the census doesn't split those numbers by their parents nation of origin, all Hispanic Americans are lumped  into the same category, because they are primarily Americans.

    I am not surprised that you dont' understand datasets or why you are talking about two very different categories.  I don't need the google  machine to match wits over demography with a dude who doesn't even understand the difference in datasets.

    It's fun to see you continue on, every time you throw out a lame insult, when you don't understand what you are talking about is amusing please carry on.


    I'm talking about the Hispanics in 2050, who will primarily be Mexicans because that's where the growth is. Sorry it's opaque to you. Here's a link to Pew Hispanic Research site*, since apparently the Google failed you. Yo pusiera traducirlo, pero no estoy seguro hacía cual lengua. Lástima, lo siento.

    *Double click link to go to site.


    Children born in  America will be mostly culturally American, since that seems to be what concerns you. They'll go to mostly English speaking schools and hear all the wonderful stories about how great America has been for a couple of hundred years. You know, civilizing the savages, manifest destiny, light on the hill and beacon of hope for the world. They'll eat it up love America just like the white folks.

    Even the kids of the Cuban Americans are being assimilated. Obama won the Cuban vote in FL. I think its a really superficial analysis to claim our policy toward Cuba is dictated by the Cuban immigrants. If 20 or 30 million white folks cared a couple of million cubans would have no effect. But we've been steeped in years of anti-communist propaganda that has a much greater influence than the Florida Cubans.

    It was clear that pro Baptista Cubans would be anti Castro. What exactly do you think the issues are that all these Mexicans will foist on America? Immigration, amnesty? I've looked at a few of the republican plans and when they talk of amnesty its a difficult path of 10 or more years to citizenship. I see no indication that Mexican Americans will push for open borders or unlimited Mexican immigration. What exactly are you worried about?

    Oh yeah, the dreaded PRI gene. What you're missing is many of those Mexican kids will grow up and marry good clean white folks. That will dilute the PRI gene and their kids will vote democrat or republican. Don't worry, the browns won't be taking over America.


    You're making the assumption that with 130 million Hispanics, primarily Mexican, in 2050 that assimilation will be towards US culture rather than Mexican culture.

    Why do you make that assumption? It doesn't work like that anywhere else in the world - people adopt the majority culture around them. That's what's happened in Miami - Little Havana - and that's only 1.2 million Cubans.

    If it were 130 million redneck southerners coming to town, I'm sure you'd be so complacent. But since you don't know how to say "redneck" in Spanish, you probably don't recognize a redneck Mexican. Caveat emptor.

    PS - "many of those Mexican kids" doesn't come close to "a majority of those Mexican kids". 30% of Texas kids are non-Hispanic white. Maverick County is 96.9% Hispanic, Webb County is 96.4%, Starr County is 95.7%. But don't worry, they'll assimilate and lose those traditions from south of the border, just because because because - the wonderful things he does/it happened with Italians and Irish 100 years before. Forget situational details, let's just assume the most positive picture we can and push forward.


    As I said, I've have a problem if there were 70 million more illegal immigrants by 2035. But you're talking children. Most of the growth from your link is from children getting old enough to vote. And children tend to assimilate. My ex-wife is half Mexican. Her grandparents,the original immigrants only spoke spanish, her mother was bilingual, my wife learned spanish in high school and spoke it as poorly most high school students do. Aside from a some what hispanic appearence she was as American as apple pie.

    The kids will go to mostly english speaking schools. They will learn American history not Mexican history. They'll get jobs mostly english speaking companies with significant numbers of white and black co-workers. Mexicans have been coming here for years and been assimilating.

    Yes there are some areas with large Mexican populations. But their parents will want them to get ahead, go to college, get good paying jobs. That's not going to happen if they set up separatist enclaves. There has always been immigrant majority areas, even Mexican majority areas. There's a bit more of them now, but they have moved out and moved on in the past. What evidence do you have that they won't now?


    Look, I had Korean shopkeepers as neighbors, friendly, worked 14 hour days. Have Vietnamese shopkeepers, Libyans, Mexican, whatever - people work hard. But when there are 130 million Hispanics in a short span, don't tell me their kids are all going to sit around speaking English and focus on the same issues that all other groups are focused on. In the old days sure, but now there are so many Spanish services no one has to speak English in a lot of these areas.

    1/5th of Texas counties are Hispanic majority - but if it were just from Texas to California, I wouldn't care - ZZTop Tres Hombres and whatever. But 10% of Hawaii is now Hispanic, North Carolina 9%, Connecticut 13%, Kansas 11%, Nebraska 9%, Rhode Island 12%, Idaho 11%, Oregon 12%, Georgia 9%, Massachussetts 10%, .

    "In my opinion, 2012 will be the year of the Latino in Hawaii," said Jose Villa, publisher of Hawaii Hispanic News, who is urging Hispanics to run for office. 

    "The political campaigns have already started, and several races are going to be very, very close. Now that the Latino community is 9 percent of the population, elected officials and candidates can no longer ignore it. There's this huge community that's building."

    Very assimilating, no? And what's the lede for the Hawaiian Hispanic News: "Looking for a Hispanic Business or professional? Look for them here in the Hawaii Hispanic Directory." Excellent. It doesn't matter that Hispanics are well on their way to a national plurality - being Hispanic means "diversity" as one ad notes, whereas imagine me writing:

    "Looking for a White Business or professional? Look for them here in the Hawaii White Directory".


    But 10% of Hawaii is now Hispanic, North Carolina 9%, Connecticut 13%, Kansas 11%, Nebraska 9%, Rhode Island 12%, Idaho 11%, Oregon 12%, Georgia 9%, Massachussetts 10%, .

    Exactly. 10%

    I can see why you're scared. Given that less than half the hispanics vote and assuming they would all vote for the hispanic candidate if some Mexican  ran for office why he'd start with 5% of the vote right off. He'd be a shoo in. With those numbers he wouldn't have to appeal to white or black voters at all. How's a white guy gonna compete with that.

    A Hawaii hispanic directory, omg, really?. Damn, I bet the other 90% of the population just tossed out their white directory putting all the white people out of work and on welfare.

    10%! Call out the calvary we're being over run with Mexicans! There's one Mexican in that group of nine white guys. We have to do something about that.


    Another 10%+, interestingly, as it says there, more than seven times the population of the old country. Wonder how that happened?cheeky

    And how 'bout those Germans, interbreeding in this country and overrunning it to the point where we couldn't put 'em in internment camps during WWII without putting away most of the population? Hey, what ever happened to all of these: at its zenith the German-language press in the US boasted over 800 daily and weekly periodicals?


    Yes, I've seen that before, before the United States existed and even in the early years, there was a heavy German-speaking population, even the Dutch and Swedes had colonies in PA too, the French owned everything across the Appalachians, the Spanish had Florida up through half of Alabama & Mississippi and on out west.

    So we ended up with the US in 1776, it became successful at what it did, but just presuming that because in the 1700's things worked out, a large influx of a new population will automatically act like Germans and assimilate? Who could learn English easy because English is a West Germanic language? So we had a lingua franca for the country to grow with, that the Irish already spoke.

    We have models for how Creole languages develop, and with a heavily Spanish population, where newborns grow up in primarily Spanish-speaking neighborhoods, they'll be primarily Spanish culture or a Creole mix.

    Mandarin has now overtaken English as Hong Kong's 2nd language - a huge influx of poor Mandarin workers after the handover, and other influences. I'm sure in 1997 someone said, "don't worry, they've kept speaking English in Hong Kong for hundreds of years".

    And you could say, "don't worry, the Mandarin speakers will assimilate with Cantonese speakers to keep the status quo". But the Mandarin-speak also reflects increasing control from Beijing, despite the "1 country, 2 systems" promises.

    So I'm sorry if I look past the glib hippie-speak everything-will-work-out-magically because it always has, and try to look at real manifestations of new trends.

    Now imagine if everyone here took the same attitude towards global warming - "it's gotten hotter before, why worry? sometimes more hurricanes, sometiems fewer, it's just weather, deal with it". Isn't that what we're saying? We had some hot years in the 1720's, so things will be fine in 2012?


    P.S. Haven't read it yet, but this looks like a real interesting paper on intermarriage & assimilation I ran across in the same search-thought you might enjoy a link before I leave this thread and this discussion.


    Read it, interesting - as of 1990, non-Hispanic spouse was at 1/3, Hispanic spouse 2/3. Couldn't find update from Rosenberg for the following 2 decades, but here's a graph of increased intermarriage from him, though I don't think it means an increase from 2/3 Hispanic. Rosenberg's theory notes assimilation increased by young people's time alone (college, workering out of the home or in different city...). Of course if that's still in a mostly Hispanic bubble, that won't increase intermarriage that much, but I agree that it's a distinctly US pressure historically.

    Here's a more modern updated study of Mexican trends combining several different factors related to the old culture and new - i.e. time, specific customs, the rate of change - haven't finished it, but seems more relevant to current situation.


    Go ahead, be an ass.

    In 10 years, what % will that be, in 20 years what %, in 30 years what %. (% not exact, but to make a point)

    And Hispanics will bond together to vote on issues and do business - but to say such thing as a white would be racist, survivalist, knuckle-dragging Cro-Magnon.Thought maybe you would appreciate the double standard, but guess not.


    Lots of minority groups produce minority phone books not just hispanics. Its been happening for years. These minority phone books are often distributed to white communities. Its an advertising gimmick to attempt to get young immigrant communities and whites to help struggling new minority businesses. Those minority communities aren't trying to exclude whites and the businesses also seek to sell or work for white people. In fact they probably seek to sell or work for the white community more than the minority community simply because there's more white people and they usually have more money. When white people do similar things its not done to help struggling white businesses. Its an exclusionary tactic to keep people of color out. Its not done by the broader white community but typically by hate groups.

    What you're talking about here is not called a double standard, the correct term is false equivalency.


    I imagine there's no problem advertising Hispanic services in Texas counties with a majority. But these would likely be advertised in Spanish.

    Of course, when whites do anything, it's exclusionary. When minorities do anything, it's to correct historical injustices. You say so yourself - it's not done to help white businesses, it's a front by hate groups, case closed.

    Glad you agree.


    The outrage, at least for me, is that first he boils the electorate down into the two groups - the makers and the takers.  Underneath this is a moral implication that the makers are good and the takers are bad, in both the general sense and for the future of the country.  Second, he places entire ethnic and other demographic groups into the takers category.  Blacks are takers. Hispanics are takers.  College age women are takers. And so on. 

    I don't know if it so much outrage at folks like Romney who see the world and politics this way, or that our country allows such folks a legitimate chance at seizing power (see Romney) or actually allows them power (see Ryan). 

    But as one pundit put it - how does Romney explain losing Iowa.  So aside from the outrage, there is the incredulous gasp from someone who cannot believe that a person with a minimum of intelligence actually believes this was the reason he lost.  Maybe it is the outrage over someone once again just telling the people in the room what he believes they want to hear. 

    There is also a major sigh of relief that this man is not our president-elect.

     


    Well, he is pretty ham-handed. He talks about the 47%, but as far as I can tell he means the 99%, give or take a few friendly white groups - friends of corporate executives and the like. But the part that leaves me not outraged is just the idea that everybody's sucking at some government or corporate teat. For the most part, I think that's true. The biggest problem there is the inequality of distribution - the teat's not going away in our lifetime if ever, barring some Timothy Leary / Stewart Brand / Ray Kurzweil utopian singularity future.

    Actually, I think it's partly our own fault for not being able to verbalize that the teat is a feature, not a flaw - since it's harder to predict and tax for benefits in advance, we should just pay out as needed and adjust our tax revenues along the way. In the old days, a 98% tax rate was certainly overkill, but nowadays liberals barely do a decent job of expressing what a fair and valid pseudo-socialist-capitalist society requires in terms of health care, old age supports, job retraining, defense, infrastructure, et al. Instead, it's just a hodge-podge bunch of hot ticket items for the moment, rather than a grand design for shining city on the hill.

    In short, we had a better idea what the Great Society was trying to accomplish, including Jetsons-style vision of the techno-future, than we have today, aside from free health care and lots of touchy phones and a more diverse ethnic mix (which was already envisioned pretty well in lots of early 70's films* or even Star Trek). McKayla is still not impressed.

    *I remember watching The Man Who Fell to Earth, and noting the black sinister-gov-agent-like character Peters who'd just offed the gay Buck Henry & weight-lifter boyfriend, and seeing Peters go home to his white wife and kid, talking non-chalantly about "tough day at the office" and going for a dip in the pool. Roeg was great at the personal dynamics in futurism.


    I agree that on the whole those who have a liberal progressive vision need to do better in how that vision is articulated.  But Obama was correct that Reagan was transformative - he fundamentally changed the working prism through which our politics and society was viewed.  One way to understand it is that the country that watched The Man Who Fell to Earth when it was first released was not the same country that would watch in decades later on their VCR: the rules of the discourse had been altered to such a significant degree (in part by tapping into historical discourse streams that had begun to fade in the sixities and seventies).

    Many of those who report on Obama say that he is motivated to be that kind of president.  He can't do it alone, just as it wasn't just Reagan doing it alone (from Falwell to the NRA to the MSM).  Obama once said early on that it wasn't about big government or small government, but the right size of government.

    Government has a role to play, along with those in the private sector (for-profit to non-profit), to increase the quality of life of everyone.  Welfare was attacked not only as a redistribution of wealth, but also as a system kept those in poverty stuck in poverty.  An argument still heard today and echoed in Romney and Ryan's comments.  Yet people do understand that there is a benefit at some point in giving a hand out, as well as a hand up. 

    Improving the quality of life of junkie by giving them free access to rehab, and thus reducing crime and financial burden on the legal system improves the quality of everyone in the community (from the person whose house is not broken into to the taxpayers who have to support the legal system that will need to arrest and prosecute the junkie). 

    Taxes are not just an extraction, but an investment when used right.  This is why San Antonio voted to increase its local taxes to invest in pre-k education. and why most of the local tax increase initiatives passed across the country

    After the 47% video came out, I think there was some good discourse on just who is benefiting - like returning veterans from our wars.  They are not takers for getting a "gift" from the government, and we as a society benefit from the support the government gives them. 

    The Great Society was generally a discourse on how those who were well-off could help those not-so-well off.  Reagan's revolution undermined that by claiming that helping them was turning the well-off into the not-so-well off without helping the not-so-well off.  That the less government we had the better.  Liberals were caught off gaurd so to say and have taken decades to recapture the narrative.  Only now, have liberals been able to reframe the issues to their benefit (abortion is about access to health care, etc).

    Sandy showed in those last days of the election how quickly anyone of us, no matter how well-to-do, can become one of the "takers" looking for a "gift" because of circumstances largely out of our control.  How we negotiating the right size of government that includes something like FEMA is how Obama and the liberals can take back what the Reaganites took.

     


    But education and veterans are the most banal part of our dialog.

    We did transform welfare in the 90's and it didn't hurt that much - it didn't mean welfare had stopped or was no longer needed, just that we saw it could be a trap.

    But after 2001, we just turned into a freaked out, permanent nation at war and fear, where we no longer have room for such nostalgic nicities as a safety net - we have to tighten those belts even while the belt never actually gets tightened, only social amenities are sacrificed for our Spartans. We're about to do it again with our Grand Bargain - war & intelligence expenses will triumph over non-essentials like Medicare and Social Security.

    Can anybody spare a drone?


    Over the decades, we have basically set up the military industrial complex as our annual stimulus plan.  The quest would be how to turn the drone swords into new tech and infrastructure plows almost instantaneously in order not to impact the economy local communities across the country. 

    In the grand bargain, medicare social security and the safety net are not going to disappear - although they will be re-imagined, just as welfare was when Clinton was prez.  What the final product will be is anyone's guess at this point. 

    But the fiscal cliff discussions has to do with the federal government, whereas the larger topic of how we address those in need through government stretches from the federal to the local. I would argue that after the days of "government is the problem" positioned as the conventional wisdom, we are returning to people embracing the notion that government is one of many partners in developing and implementing the solutions. 


    There is no reimagining of Social Security and Medicare going on except to cut benefits and call it "savings". Welfare really was a problem because it was permanent poverty. Social Security shouldn't be a problem because you're supposed to stay retired. Raising the input an iota would fix any shortfalls far in the future, but no, we have to cut savings on the next set of retirees (not the ones now, as they'd vote the suckers out of office) so that retirement just gets more painful.

    Somewhere, someone's always furious that somebody might be eating oatmeal rather than catfood.


    Welfare really was a problem because it was permanent poverty.

    The welfare system had ways it could be improved because there were facets which facilitated with some people a state of perpetual poverty.  This is different than saying that the welfare system as it was then was permanent poverty.  That would be saying that no one ever rose out poverty once they got into its grasp - something the conservatives wanted people to believe.

    Denying that there cannot be a re-imagining of Social Security may help sustain whatever narrative it is you are trying to maintain - but here are some things a few came up with.  They may not be perfect, but it shows there are ways of looking at it that isn't just some simplistic cutting of benefits and calling it savings:

    RECOMMENDATION 5.1: MAKE RETIREMENT BENEFIT FORMULA MORE PROGRESSIVE. Modify the current three-bracket formula to a more progressive four-bracket formula, with changes phased in slowly. Change the current bend point factors of 90%|32%|15% to 90%|30%|10%|5% by 2050, with the new bend point added at median lifetime income.

    RECOMMENDATION 5.2: REDUCE POVERTY BY PROVIDING AN ENHANCED MINIMUM BENEFIT FOR LOW-WAGE WORKERS. Create a new special minimum benefit that provides full career workers with a benefit no less than 125 percent of the poverty line in 2017 and indexed to wages thereafter.

    RECOMMENDATION 5.3: ENHANCE BENEFITS FOR THE VERY OLD AND THE LONG-TIME DISABLED. Add a new “20-year benefit bump up” to protect those Social Security recipients who have potentially outlived their personal retirement resources.

    RECOMMENDATION 5.4: GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY AND FULL RETIREMENT AGES, BASED ON INCREASES IN LIFE EXPECTANCY. After the Normal Retirement Age (NRA) reaches 67 in 2027 under current law, index both the NRA and Early Eligibility Age (EEA) to increases in life expectancy, effectively increasing the NRA to 68 by about 2050 and 69 by about 2075, and the EEA to 63 and 64 in lock step.

    RECOMMENDATION 5.5: GIVE RETIREES MORE FLEXIBILITY IN CLAIMING BENEFITS AND CREATE A HARDSHIP EXEMPTION FOR THOSE WHO CANNOT WORK BEYOND 62. Allow Social Security beneficiaries to collect half of their benefits as early as age 62, and the other half at a later age. Also, direct the Social Security Administration to design a hardship exemption for those who cannot work past 62 but who do not qualify for disability benefits.

    RECOMMENDATION 5.6: GRADUALLY INCREASE THE TAXABLE MAXIMUM TO COVER 90 PERCENT OF WAGES BY 2050.

    RECOMMENDATION 5.7: ADOPT IMPROVED MEASURE OF CPI. Use the chained CPI, a more accurate measure of inflation, to calculate the Cost of Living Adjustment for Social Security beneficiaries.

    RECOMMENDATION 5.8: COVER NEWLY HIRED STATE AND LOCAL WORKERS AFTER 2020. After 2020, mandate that all newly hired state and local workers be covered under Social Security, and require state and local pension plans to share data with Social Security.


    I was trying not to write 3 pages on welfare. Simply, it was a mess for many at the time.

    As for most of the recommendations above, they're mostly variations on "how to pay less and/or delay payments to retirees". 

    I'm not sure where the enhanced minimum and long-term bump-ups get paid for, but no one seems to be worrying abut the SS holiday now either, which I think is a mistake - it plays into GOP hands that these are entitlements rather than paid for insurance with obligations.

    I'm not sure recommendation 5.8 is constitutional.

    Not sure how they would judge hardship benefits for early retirees - seems a bit like "death panels" territory to me at first glance.

    In any case, it should be recognized that our "friends" in Congress are making a lot of assumptions about people "living much longer", but the poor ones at the bottom who've been working 2 jobs for 30 years aren't living longer - it's the half a million and millionaires who can afford the spas and vacations and Cadillac health care. For some reason Congress hasn't figured out that the 47% living off government crumbs don't have 7 houses the way Mitt does with year-round tan. 


    The point isn't so much about whether any of these recommendations in and of themselves are worthy, but that an inquiry into the safety net-medicare-social security realm is not necessarily a choice between status quo and slash & burn.  Of course, elections have consequences, so there will be some who get to come to the table who will use this inquiry as an opportunity to dismantle the system, while others will be debating in a good faith effort to strengthen the systems and the overall financial stability of the country.


    First, we have to acknowledge that despite all the laughing at Mark Penn for poll-driven campaigns, it's now gospel between Axelrod as Emperor and Nate Silver as Pope, with the "election" being about ~5 early states in the primaries, and 8-10 swing states in the general elections.

    Of course, this 2012 story only gets told after the 50 state strategy expanded the map in 2008.  This is why Republicans are now talking about adopting that strategy, rather than hiring Mark Penn.


    They don't need a 50-state strategy, they just need a platform that doesn't piss off 50% of the voters most places. At that point, they can finesse it around the edges. Until then, it's an uphill push.


    But that wasn't your point.  Your point was something about how even though people dissed Mark Penn in 2008, that 2012 seems to be a Mark Penn kind of world.  Funny that, right?  Except Mark Penn didn't and couldn't win 2008.  Obama's win in 2008, which was based on expanding the map and not on strict battleground focus, is what created 2012.

    Also, your first sentence doesn't make a lot of sense.  A platform that earns you most voters in most places in pretty much commensurate with the 50 state strategy, is it not?  They don't need a 50 state strategy, they just need to win most votes in most places?  Paging Paul Ryan...


    A platform can be focused on undecided wedge voters across all 50 states, not on the mainstream voters that either fall to you or the opponent.

    Penn was instrumental in the micro-targeting approach in the primaries. While Hillary lost, she was very close, and Penn got more egg on him than he deserved. (targeted polls is one thing, but you have to get out the vote where you target, which was not Penn's job).

    And people said even 4 years ago that Axelrod was doing much as Penn, except even more precise.


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