Michael Wolraich's picture

    RealClearPolitics.com - Obama over the threshold

    When I'm bored or anxious, I like to play with the interactive electoral college map over at RealClearPolitics.com. They set it up for you based on the latest aggregate polling data, but you can change the configuration at will. Obama has been ahead all along, but you had to turn several gray "toss-up" states to light blue "leaning Obama" in order to give him the win.

    No longer. When you go to the map now, it shows 277 electoral votes leaning or solid Obama, with 158 leaning or solid McCain and 103 tossup. Only 270 are needed to win, which means that based on the aggregate polling data, Obama is over the threshold.

    From toss-up to leans Obama:

    • Virginia
    • New Mexico
    • Michigan

    From toss-up to solid Obama:

    • New Hampshire

    From leans Obama to solid Obama:

    • Pennsylvania
    • Iowa

    From leans McCain to toss-up:

    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
    • Indiana
    • West Virginia
    • Ohio
    • Florida

    From solid McCain to leans McCain:

    • Georgia

    And if you really want to feel gooey inside, click "No Toss Up States" to the get the prediction according to current poll data for all states. Obama gets Ohio, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico AND North Carolina: Obama 353, McCain 185.

    But don't get too excited. We still have three weeks to go.

     

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    Comments

    "We still have three weeks to go," indeed.  BUT, people are starting to vote now!  Absentee voters, early voters.... So maybe it's less tenuous than it feels. 


    Didn't I say by the time I get back he'll be winning!?  No, really, I was pretty nervous.... and I plan on continuing to be totally stressed out about this til the official results are in.  Being neurotic and paranoid is the only way to make things happen!  Right!!?

     


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