Michael Wolraich's picture

    States in Play

    I just stopped over at the RealClearPolitics election map. The results in truth are tighter than I would like. Obama is still outside the margin of error for 278 EVs, but last week it was well over 300. I'm not really concerned. McCain would have to win all the "tossup" states, among which Obama still leads in several, plus at least one of the "leaning Obama" states. In addition, poll analysis by A-man and FlyOnTheWall gives me confidence that Obama will outperform the polls.

    But I would like to remark on another phenomenon. Back in the primary, one of the reasons that I favored Obama was his appeal in purple states. I had in mind CO, VA, and NV. I had no idea how well he would be doing in so many red states. Incredibly, there are 128 "tossup" EVs in play, including GA, MT, AZ, MO, IN, FL, OH, ND, VA, and NC, with WV, AR, and SD only "leaning McCain." We have not seen an electoral map this wide open since the 80's, and in those days it was Reagan lapping up blue states. There hasn't been a Democrat in this position since LBJ. What a pleasure it is not have to hang one's hopes for the future on a relatively small number of voters in FL and OH. It's truly remarkable.

    In any case, the moment is upon us. I hope the you all will check in with us tomorrow, either at our election party at the Village Lantern or on our live blog. For the latter, we've got some nifty new technology that will allow you to chat with us as we blog.

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