David Seaton's picture

    Erdogan and the future of... Egypt

    Bush was actually right when he said that democracy would change the Muslim world, he just muffed the details a bit.

    "For too long, many nations, including my own, tolerated, even excused, oppression in the Middle East in the name of stability. Oppression became common, but stability never arrived. We must take a different approach. We must help the reformers of the Middle East as they work for freedom, and strive to build a community of peaceful, democratic nations." George W. Bush, Speech to UN General Assembly, September 21, 2004

    I'm surprised that the son of the only president of the USA to have ever headed the CIA could have been so naive about how American foreign policy actually works. I guess this was just another one of Dubya's many oedipal issues.

    I'm in the midst of reading a very interesting book that came into my hands; "For the President's Eyes Only: Secret Intelligence and the American Presidency from Washington to Bush (Dad)", from way back in 1996, written by British historian, Christopher Andrew. It contains the following priceless quote, "The most powerful government ever to fall as a result of covert action was the administration of Richard Nixon." Not for want of trying all around the world, he might have added, (he does actually and in great and fascinating detail).

    During the Cold War military dictatorships that were convincingly anticommunist, like Franco's  in Spain, had a blank check from the USA  to repress their populations and regimes that voted the way they weren't supposed to, like Chile, or looked like moving to the left, like Indonesia, got military dictatorships in short order: the list of these countries is very long.  Summing up, the USA has a long and varied tradition of supporting military establishments in repressing any democratic, civilian dissent, if it didn't jibe with what Washington perceived as US interests.

    This is part of what is extraordinary about Erdogan moving as far as he has, at the same time confronting Israel over Gaza, and, with Brazil (another Cold War, ex-military dictatorship), voting against US sponsored Iran sanctions in the UN, he is also apparently being allowed to bring the Turkish armed forces, which have always been seen in Washington as the guarantor of Turkey's modern (read pro-American and pro-Israeli) foreign policy under civilian control.

    In short. the United States has always supported the Turkish army's ultimate control of Turkish life and now the generals are being hung out to dry.

    Now, it must be said that the Turkish army has in no way hindered Turkey's modernization, quite the contrary. That has never been the issue. The Turkish army has been the guardians of the legacy of modern Turkey's founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, a secular nationalist bent on turning Turkey into a modern European country, despite the continuing traditionalist piety of Turkey's masses.

    The irony is that the culminating of  Atatürk's ambition of European-ization, joining the European Union, is helping an Islamist-traditionalist political party to disassemble the Kemalist, pro-western, power structure.
     
    Here is a little light reading on Erdogan's referendum:

    The referendum result is a triumph for Erdogan's ideology. It's hard to imagine the heads of Turkey's army plotting another coup, given that the reforms now allow them to be tried in civilian court, or the country's high court banning certain political parties as it has in the past.(...) Erdogan will remain hated by the Turkish secular elite, which is concentrated in the army, universities and business community. But he is beloved by Turkey's poorer, devout periphery. The prime minister has straightened the backbone of the marginalized, and in return has received their undying loyalty. Haaretz

    In a largely Muslim country that sits at the crossroads of East and West, Turks who treasure secular rule are again warning about a "creeping coup" of political Islam. (...) In truth, the constitutional changes conform to democratic norms. They strengthen individual rights, privacy, and unions. They bring the military - which ousted four governments in the last 50 years - further under civilian control. But the abstract truth is not the same as the political reality in Turkey. The reality is that this is a polarized country, with a large segment of the population increasingly mistrusting of the government. Editorial - Christian Science Monitor

    Logically one could suppose that, either the American leopard has changed its spots, has had a massive change of heart and has become willing to let the democratic chips of the world fall where they may, or that perhaps, the US feet are slipping off the pedals of the world's bicycle... (How's that for assaulting and battering a couple of helpless metaphors?).

    Now, as important a client as the Turkish army is, there are much more important ones, if money is the measure. Of course, it goes without saying that Israel is the number one recipient of America's military aid, but number two is Egypt and according to the New York Times, Egypt's military consider Israel their "primary threat".

    Now it would seem obvious to me that the US has not given the Egyptian armed forces some $40 billion dollars over thirty years just to protect them from the Israelis, when it could have been done much more cheaply by simply giving less money to the Israelis. 

    So it stands to reason that the Egyptian armed forces are receiving the money in order to make it easier for them to control Egypt. Here is how it all works:

     (T)he rules that apply to the rest of Egypt do not apply to the military, still the single most powerful institution in an autocratic state facing its toughest test in decades, an imminent presidential succession.(...)Technically, Egyptian voters will determine their next leader in the 2011 elections, but in practice the governing party's candidate is almost certain to win. The real succession struggle will take place behind closed doors, and that is where the military would try to assure its continued status or even try to block Mr. Mubarak's son Gamal.(...) The military has much to lose in the transition, these officers and analysts say. Over the years, one-man rule eviscerated Egypt's civilian institutions, creating a vacuum at the highest levels of government that the military willingly filled. "There aren't any civilian institutions to fall back on," said Michael Hanna, a fellow at the Century Foundation who has written about the Egyptian military.(...) The beneficiary of nearly $40 billion in American aid over the last 30 years, the Egyptian military has turned into a behemoth that controls not only security and a burgeoning defense industry, but has also branched into civilian businesses like road and housing construction, consumer goods and resort management.  New York Times

    Egypt, like Turkey, is a large and important country. Culturally Egypt is by far the most important Arab state and significantly, the Muslim Brotherhood has its origins there.

    Quite a few knowledgeable observers think that, if free and fair elections were ever held in Egypt the Brotherhood would win them.

    That would explain this further snippet from the New York Times:

    The military interprets its writ broadly. A retired army general, Hosam Sowilam, recently said the army would step in "with force if necessary" to stop the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group, from ascending to power.

    In fact elections are to be held in Egypt next year, because the ancient dictator, Hosni Mubarak, is ailing, but it would be a miracle if the coming elections turned out to be "free and fair".

    (Nobel Laureate and) Former UN nuclear weapons chief and prominent Egyptian dissident Mohamed ElBaradei (...) warned that the (Egyptian) poll would be marred by fraud, and that "anyone who participates in the vote either as a candidate or a voter goes against the national will". He went on to claim that the three-decade rule of president Hosni Mubarak was a "decaying, nearly collapsing temple", and promised activists that regime change was possible in the coming year. Guardian

    Sufficient to say that if a process similar to Turkey's were to take place in Egypt -- and although it is a vastly different country from Turkey, the human resources exist in Egypt to make it happen -- all bets would be off in the Middle East.

    I have no idea what form a free and democratic Egyptian government would take, only that a country of the size and cultural power of Egypt following the desires of its people would change the entire region in days.

    It will be interesting to hear Secretary of State Clinton's comments on Turkey and even more interesting to hear her comments on Egypt and its democratic process... if she makes any.

    Cross posted from: http://seaton-newslinks.blogspot.com

    Comments

    You gotta love the way much of the western media is playing the Turkish referendum: Erdogan Extends Control Over Secular Opponents!

    What actually happened is that in an impeccably democratic vote, Turks turned out en masse and voted (58 to 42%) to repeal parts of a constitution imposed after a 1980 coup. Parts like military immunity from trial in civilian courts. The changes also restore the govt's role in naming new members to the country's top court and put limits -- limits! -- on that court's power to dissolve political parties on a whim.

    In the aftermath, did dissidents' blood flow in the streets? No. Rather, the European Union hailed the changes as advancing civil rights, and Turkey's stock market soared.

    As you suggest, the State Dept is clearly conflicted about Turkey. They'd obviously prefer a more malleable leader like Mubarak. But Erdogan's AKP, despite its Islamist roots, is a far cry from the Muslim Brotherhood. Moreover, Turks -- unlike Egyptians -- seem to have internalized the idea, not just the form, of democracy. And this vote suggests Erdogan has a very good shot at a third four-year term.

    In the immediate wake of Turkey's tiff with Israel over the Gaza aid flotilla, Tom Friedman led a spate of right-wing spammers in demonizing Erdogan as a terrorist enabler and/or lionizing Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the new leader of the secular opposition. Those attacks lasted a few weeks, ending as suddenly as they began. Probably coincidence, but I'm pretty sure some people with clout realized further pissing off the Turks was not in U.S. interests.

    The United States (and even Israel) will find a modus vivendi with Erdogan's Turkey. But they don't yet see a need to come to terms with even moderate Islamists in Egypt. So they'll keep propping up the creaky, despotic National Democratic regime (backing Mubarak's son for leader since he has no credible rival inside the party). Personally, I'd like to see El Baradei put together a winning team, but the electoral deck is stacked against him.

    Depending on how politically competent Mubarak Jr. proves, the West can probably get a few more years' service out of the old National Democratic horse. Not decades, though.


    I haven't kept up with the news concerning the ClubMed cartel of Arab influence, however, I have noted some chatter about the democracy serpent rearing its' head. 

    If I'm not mistaken, hasn't bin Laden's argument against the US been the driving influence of our presence in the Middle East as well as our pedaling money and equipment to military regimes to tow the whims of the US policy for the region and keep their people in check?

    For the US, it's been a high political price to pay to keep hot spots, like Turkey and Egypt, on the back burners, but eventually even the back burner can boil over if given enough time.

    I suspect the failure of US forces in Iraq (for all our efforts, the best we achieved was a draw) and the pending failure in Afghanistan (we let the Taliban regroup, resupply and entrench themselves in both Afghanistan and  Pakistan) are feeding public opposition in the Middle East against their current governments. They've realize the military might of the US is nothing more than a projection with very little substance...it is possible both their government and US influence can be defeated by the will of the people.

    Thanks to Bu$h, we do live in interesting times. Unfortunately, America's political regression in the Middle East wasn't what I thought Bu$h and the republicans were selling at the time.

     


    No, what they were selling was swampland they didn't even hold title to. But I think behind Cheney's obsession to annex Iraq lay a cold-eyed realistic assessment: Especially with peak oil looming, the era of overpriced, overhyped U.S. military might was not sustainable. Cheney's pitch to the president was, "Use it now, massively, and try to rearrange the Middle East more favorably to U.S. interests (i.e., control of oil). It's our last chance." Bush took the gamble, and lost big time. Obama is trying to retreat in orderly fashion, but can't afford to admit the country's disastrous blunder.

    Another thing Obama can't admit (I don't know if he sees it) is that backing Mideast govts based on their support for narrow, short-term U.S. interests actually is destructive to broad, long-term U.S. interests. And the narrow interests end up suffering anyway.


    Another thing Obama can't admit (I don't know if he sees it) is that backing Mideast govts based on their support for narrow, short-term U.S. interests actually is destructive to broad, long-term U.S. interests. And the narrow interests end up suffering anyway.

    I'd like to believe Obama is too intelligent not to see it, whether or not he can admit it.


    I'm with you on that. It's frustrating that a man so obviously smarter than his predecessor feels constrained to follow almost exactly the same policies.


    I think it is fair to say that Dubya took care of his base much better than Obama does.


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