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    Nate Silver: 7 Rules For Reading Trump’s Approval Rating

    There is a lot to digest here . . .

    And I have a sinking suspicion that Trump's reaction to this would be... #fakeanalysis ...

    August. 24, 2017 at 1:13 PM


    It still isn’t entirely clear how much President Trump’s reaction to the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia — which was criticized by both Democratic and Republican lawmakers after he blamed “many sides” for the violence there — has affected his job approval rating. As of Wednesday evening, Trump’s approval rating was 36.9 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, down only slightly from 37.6 percent on the day before1 a counter-protester and two police officers were killed in Charlottesville. His disapproval rating was 56.8 percent, up only slightly from 56.3 percent before Charlottesville. So perhaps there’s been a little movement — but there hasn’t been the sort of unambiguous decline in Trump’s approval rating that occurred at earlier moments in his presidency, such as when Republicans began to debate their health care bill in March or after Trump fired FBI Director James Comey in May.

    Approval ratings, of course, aren’t the only way to judge a president’s standing. The fact that Republicans in Congress have become much more openly defiant of Trump could spell trouble for him later on, whether or not rank-and-file voters were all that moved by Charlottesville. Nonetheless, approval ratings provide a reality check of sorts, as the media’s guesses about what will or won’t affect public opinion aren’t always accurate. So let me walk you through a few propositions for what I think we’ve learned about Trump’s approval through the first seven months of his presidency — and why his approval ratings’ modest response to Charlottesville shouldn’t have been all that surprising.


    The following are the individual scenarios (rules) discussed in-depth:

    1. Proposition No. 1: It’s easy to fight to a draw when your approval rating is only 37 percent.
    2. Proposition No. 2: Be wary of claims that Trump has hit his approval rating ‘floor’ — so far, his numbers have been declining, not holding steady.
    3. Proposition No. 3: If Trump does have a floor, it’s probably in the 20s and not in the 30s.
    4. Proposition No. 4: Expect bigger approval rating changes from issues that cut across partisan lines.
    5. Proposition No. 5: Be especially wary of expecting big changes in Trump’s approval rating from ‘cultural’ issues.
    6. Proposition No. 6: Expect bigger changes when Trump’s behavior is truly surprising or defies promises he made to voters.
    7. Proposition No. 7: Trump’s approval rating could change a lot before the midterms — and certainly before 2020.


    And Silver concludes with this:

    And while there are a couple rules of thumb for how presidential approval ratings behave over the long run, they’re contradictory in Trump’s case. On the one hand, approval ratings tend to decline over the course of a president’s term, which would predict a further decrease for Trump. On the other hand — in part because of partisanship — approval ratings are mean-reverting, meaning that they tend to rise when they’re lower than roughly 40 percent and to decline when they’re above 50 percent, which would tend to produce an increase since Trump’s ratings are below 40 percent now.

    So far, the first rule — a president’s rating tends to get worse during his term — has usually won out for Trump, and his approval rating has continued to decline. But the first rule won’t necessarily keep winning the tug-of-war with the second rule. Partisan gravity could pull Trump’s numbers back into the low 40s if he has a couple of relatively calm weeks or months — as he did this April, for example. Or an issue that Americans aren’t thinking about very much now — say, a military confrontation with North Korea — could be pivotal in the 2018 and 2020 elections. The best news for Trump is that there’s a long way to go before voters go to the polls again.


    We should see what effect the following will have over the next month, as Silver pointed out above...

    Approval ratings, of course, aren’t the only way to judge a president’s standing. The fact that Republicans in Congress have become much more openly defiant of Trump could spell trouble for him later on...




    There is on proposition  that makes all your propositions kind of invalid

    The libtards keep arrassing and insulting the trump supporters, which makes them go underground 

    Now, as a result, there is no poll in the world that could provide you with accurate poll results, because the main characteristic of the trump supporters is that they would not be open about it, so you could say that most of the approval ratings are actually the "openly approval rating"  , meanwhile the "hidden approval ratings" if you find a way to evaluate them would send shivers down your spine

    Really? Trump supporters are shy wallflowers, now pushed underground? Well fuck them, matbe the can dig a deeper hole and clamber on in. Anyway, I see nothing to show the True Believers have stopped believing or shouting about it. Surmise or otherwise.

    No, not shy wallflowers. I think the point twisted is trying to make is that Trump's base is so stupid and paranoid that they might refuse to answer poll questions anonymously for fear they might be discovered and the white oppressors might say nasty things about them. Perhaps a bit exaggerated but I don't think twisted is far off the mark.

    Sure, Ocean-kat, but Nate Silver has pretty thoroughly debunked the idea of the Shy Trump vote. Polls have managed to be quite accurate. 

    Clintonite deep state global elitist freedom usurpers (Cherokee Babylonians) might take their guns away.

    Whatever happened to the Trilateral Commission and the Illuminati thingies? It's just starting to seem that with conspiracy theories these days, the more exotic and individualistic, the better. Kinda elitist, that!

    Twistedmimo... yadda yadda yadda...

    Those 12,390,000 (21%) of the sordid, ignoble, mean, unseemly, unscrupulous, unprincipled, dishonest, dishonorable, shameful, wrong, and iniquitous "hidden approval ratings" base just have me shivering in my Birkenstocks...

    Now run along and get back to your ammo reloading bench...


    New Pew Poll...

    August 29, 2017 | Pew Research Center

    Republicans Divided in Views of Trump’s Conduct

    In their own words: How people describe Trump’s presidency

    SUMMER 2017 SURVEY TOPLINE August 15-21, 2017 PDF

    In his first seven months as president, Donald Trump has generally drawn high job approval ratings among Republicans. But a new survey finds that nearly a third of Republicans say they agree with the president on only a few or no issues, while a majority expresses mixed or negative feelings about his conduct as president.


    Overwhelming shares of Democrats disagree with Trump on all or nearly all issues and say they do not like his conduct as president.

    The survey, conducted by Pew Research Center Aug. 15-21 among 1,893 adults, finds that 15% of Americans say they agree with Trump on all or nearly all issues, while another 18% say they agree with him on many but not all issues. Most say they agree with Trump on either a few issues (21%) or “no or almost no issues” (45%).

    Setting issues aside, a majority (58%) say they do not like the way Trump conducts himself as president, while 25% have mixed feelings about his conduct. Just 16% say they like the way he conducts himself as president.

    Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, just 31% say they agree with Trump on all or nearly all issues, while an additional 38% agree with him on many, but not all, issues. Fully 93% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say they agree with Trump on, at most, a few issues, including 77% who report virtually no agreement with Trump on issues.

    In views of Trump’s conduct as president, 46% of Republicans express mixed feelings, while 19% say they do not like his conduct; 34% say they like the way he conducts himself as president. Among Democrats, 89 have a negative view of Trump’s conduct.

    The survey finds that most Republicans and Republican leaners favor Trump listening more to members of the party with experience in government. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) say Trump should listen more to Republicans who have experience working in government, while  34% say he should listen less. However, conservative Republicans (52%) are less likely than moderate and liberal Republicans (70%) to say Trump needs to listen more to members of the GOP with experience in government.


    SUMMER 2017 SURVEY TOPLINE August 15-21, 2017 PDF




    Pretty remarkable - have to think how we communicate on The Wall and racism and healthcare and budget and how to get that message through the daily shitstorm. Trump has abeen near monopoly on the news, even worse than startling early days of the campaign.

    Peracles... On Obamacare alone...

    Moving Past Repealing The Affordable Care Act

    This month’s survey continues to find that more of the public holds a favorable view of the ACA than an unfavorable one (52 percent vs. 39 percent). This marks an overall increase in favorability since Congress began debating ACA replacement plans and a nine percentage point shift since the 2016 presidential election.

    The shift in attitudes since the 2016 presidential election is found regardless of party identification. For example, the share of Republicans who have a favorable view of the ACA has increased from 12 percent in November 2016 to 21 percent in August 2017. This is similar to the increase in favorability among independents (11 percentage points) and Democrats (7 percentage points) over the same time period.

    Kaiser Health Tracking Poll – August 2017:
    The Politics of ACA Repeal and Replace Efforts



    There is one news outlet that Trump does not label #fakeanlaysis, and I just ran across a couple of poll results they have to report today that are quite interesting even if one thinks they might fudge things a bit:


    NEW: Fox News poll shows that 56% of registered voters believe that the President is tearing the country apart. pic.twitter.com/UaGQXFSGnx

    — Pat Ward (@WardDPatrick) August 30, 2017


    NEW: Fox News poll shows support of the #Borderwall slowly declining
    50% Favored in Nov '15
    41% in Sept '16
    39% Now pic.twitter.com/16yhYJdTPz

    — Pat Ward (@WardDPatrick) August 31, 2017

    As always with polling, it all depends on what questions you ask...."do you approve of the way he is handling the presidency?" is quite vague after all.



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