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    A reality check on the math: What's ahead for California? The Guardian.

    Here in SoCal on the Golden Shores...

    See California projected numbers breakdown after article.

    California officials this week described a “slow and steady increase” in confirmed coronavirus infections, predicting that the peak of the state’s outbreak will occur in mid to late May.

    California has recorded more than 370 deaths due to Covid-19 and 15,800 confirmed cases, nowhere near as bad as the surge ravaging New York.

    Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine, explained what was behind the state’s projections.

    Earlier projections estimated California would see its peak in mid-April. Why do state officials now believe the peak will occur in mid to late May?

    It’s a guess. California has been under statewide social distancing for three weeks. Social distancing works, but it takes a while to bite. A whole bunch of exposures take five to seven days to work out. And transmissions kept happening, for example every time there were weekends when people disregarded the order.

    So you have to do a reality check on the math. We’re still seeing increasing numbers statewide every day, so we can’t predict that it’s going to end a week from now. There’s also a desire not to call the peak too soon and potentially give people false hope. This is managing expectations.

    --snip--

    LA county officials are seeing an uptick in cases that is making them anxious. They’re thinking ‘Well, how can we improve the lockdown?’

    --snip--

    ‘We don’t want anyone who needs groceries not to get them.’ They’re not saying we have to hunker down for the next eight weeks, but they would like to nip this little uptick in the bud.

    What happens after we hit the peak?

    If cases peak in mid-May, that doesn’t mean the lockdown ends. It means they peak and start to decline. And although there could be declining cases in the midst of a six-week or longer lockdown, after the lockdown ends, cases could go up again. So the low in cases we see under a better and better adherence to a lockdown – that may be a mirage, not an oasis. It’s really too early to say that when you see cases go down, that that means all clear to end the lockdown.

    So how does California decide to start to reopen after we think we’ve hit a peak?

    Read the rest here-->>

    ==========================

    I wrote the following April 07, 2020 at 10:37 AM PDT

    From reading the data and breaking down the numbers from within
    the graphs California COVID-19 virus. http://www.healthdata.org/covid

    It is currently projected that in 10 days on April 17 we are looking to be
    peaking with 70 deaths per day (projected total deaths 1,043) and then
    on the downward curve.

    Over the 34 days following that peak of April 17 it is projected that there
    will progressively be fewer daily deaths to May 20.

    April 17, i.e; 61, 60, 55, 52, 50, 43, 39, 37, 33, 30, 26, 23, 20,
    17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 8, 7, 5, 4, 4, 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 (may 20) Zero 0 ...

    (May 20 projected total deaths flat-lining (no pun intended) at 1,783).

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states.../california

    ==========================

    And again, note this warning from the article.

    What happens after we hit the peak?

    If cases peak in mid-May, that doesn’t mean the lockdown ends. It means they peak and start to decline. And although there could be declining cases in the midst of a six-week or longer lockdown, after the lockdown ends, cases could go up again. So the low in cases we see under a better and better adherence to a lockdown – that may be a mirage, not an oasis. It’s really too early to say that when you see cases go down, that that means all clear to end the lockdown.

    We are snug in our abode with enough provisions to remain for 3 months.

    ~OGD~

    .

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