Yesterday Hillary got her 200th (out of ~250 possible) endorsement from a sitting Congressperson or Governor, weighted-wise according to FiveThirtyEight giving her the strongest backing (and superdelegates) of any candidate ever except George W Bush - and he had a House majority to work with. Bernie hasn't had such an endorsement since October, with a total of 3.

That and $4 buys coffee at Starbucks - it doesn't seem to impact the first 2 contests, despite 538's assurance it's the leader of 3 key metrics for primary success.

Meanwhile, Hillary leads with union endorsements by about 15x Bernie's - but Bernie's team has somewhat successfully bruited the line that his endorsements reflect the membership, while hers reflect twisting union leaders' arms against the will of the rank-and-file. End result?

Bernie announced some 700,000+ contributions in January (from around 200,000 contributors) - that to some means he's a candidate of the people, even if Hillary regularly outraises him. And to bring home the whole post-CItizens United moment, George Soros picked yesterday to give another $6 million to Hillary PAC - likely a bell-weather for other PAC givers. For which Bernie proudly claims $0. Advantage who?

Apparently Sanders polls better than Hillary in national matchups with Republicans - which based on the worthlessness of Iowa & NH polls 2 months ago might even raise the price of Starbucks coffee.

Hillary got a Des Moines Register endorsement - but Bernie advertised on a flattering line out of the Des Moines Register statement. Who wins?

Hillary has strengthened her economic disparity talk the last week, the mainstay of Bernie's campaign since the beginning. Will she be seen as cynical Janie-Come-Lately or will it mesh in with her "this is how I've always been" meme?

Gallup dropped out of national political polling this year, and the remains have been rather hodge-podge, bolstered only by averages to take the sting out of the more absurd like Gravis (whose closening of the race may only be returning a bit to reality, not a movement in actual popularity). Only 538 seems to also weight them based on saneness in the past. The latest and supposedly greatest, most accurate Des Monies Register poll was just released, showing HIllary with a 3% advantage - which is well within the margin of error anyway, so it's a tossup. (538 conversely predicts Iowa her way by a much greater chance, though that doesn't mean large margin)

New Hampshire has about 1/3 Independents, who can vote in either Democratic or Republican contests (as can anyone). In this crazy year of weirdo Republicans and tight Democrats, which party and candidates will that shift favor?

Iowa meanwhile is working on new ways to handle the caucuses, and Bernie's team especially is hoping young new caucusers show out en masse - something that seems unlikely considering the relative exception of 2008 and the lightweight registration to date. But still, no one's really sure - how big the youth vote?

Hillary's had more money, but Bernie's likely had more volunteers. How's the ground game going? How's the media buy going? And does anyone really watch broadcast TV anymore, vs. getting their news from blogs & Facebook & Twitter?

Even if Hillary wins by 3%, will it be a "victory" or a sign of weakness, a "she should have done better" outcome? And how will it affect New Hampshire? and South Carolina? and Nevada? and Super Tuesday? (one would expect it to strengthen Bernie's hand, but in 2008, Hillary's 3rd place loss in Iowa turned into renewed message and strength in New Hampshire, with the "tear heard round the world" - and then a dismal South Carolina and Super Tuesday)

And while there's been talk of voting "mind vs. heart", 538 notes that with Iowa & NH the 2nd & 3rd most white liberal Dem constituencies (with Bernie's Vermont #1), the "heart" will shift to Hillary in later contests anyway (see below). Historically we've looked at minorities as the core of the new Democratic Party (and the gaping hole in the GOP's future), but this year ironically the upstart candidate bucking the establishment is a better fit with white liberals - so far. Will we re-message?

So what matters most? or stated otherwise, does it matter at all? Well, I'll be glued to the results one way or the other, but at this point it's in my genes.

PS - remembering the *scandal* of Hillary not paying off her campaign debts quickly, Obama is $830K in the red still for 2012, bolstering my cynicism of things that suddenly matter and then don't again.