The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    White working class entrapment, American Style

     

    The recent statistics revealing increases in the mortality rates of middle aged white Americans during the period 1999 to 2013 seem to defy easy narratives as to why it's happening now here while the reverse--lower mortality rates--is true in other countries. It also appears to be more of a white problem than a minority problem. The factors of personal responsibility, equality, freedom, declining wages and morality are all included in various diagnoses of this peculiar white illness. There are criticisms of the statistical methodology employed but all agree that the rate is going up, disturbingly so. Less education, lower wages and general hopelessness are common descriptors of this endangered group.

    Hillary Clinton referred to these new statistics in the Democratic Forum last week and while that is an encouraging sign, the Republicans will be pushing to the limit the theme of "government is the enemy, especially the enemy of freedom"---making this theme the catch basin for all the the ills of a stagnant white working class as well as the middle class-- the differences between these two groups seeming to disappear. Erasing '"Inequality" could turn out to be a losing theme in this election because of the perverse mechanism in which it also erases "freedom". And, back against the economic wall or not, none of us wants to lose our freedom.

    Most of us are caught in the trap of trying to keep our economic houses in order, the white working class the more so---because with the very effective strategy of Republicans to blame government, working class whites refuse to vote for things which would improve their lot---and yes, I'm talking about better financial regulations, more tax fairness, and heaven help us, some form of redistribution of assets. In my opinion, many in the white working class are entrapped in a complicated philosophical conundrum, which when combined with market forces, leaves them hopeless in the true sense of the word. Hopelessness leads to self destructive behavior which leads to early disease and death.

    The Republican party, the conservatives, have relentlessly argued that government is the enemy of our individualism, freedom and religious liberty. Government is oppressive. Government regulations hold us back. What government delivers is bad. Particularly in rural America, which de facto already has less economic opportunity, the government is the enemy theme works especially well because self reliance in the physical sense---overhauling an engine, cutting your own firewood, snow plowing, etc. is something that city liberals who love government can't do or are unwilling to do. The pride of stubborn self-reliance in rural communities is not well understood by those who don't live here. I do, and I depend upon my neighbors to pull me out of a ditch or repair my electric well pump.  

    The entrapment for this group of endangered folks is that whatever government does is bad and therefore if government---say, in the form of a Sanders or Clinton--- proposes to deliver equality, then equality​ is bad. As an adjunct, cooperation is also bad.  I wish I could take credit for this logic 101, but I can't.

    In any case, it's clear that equality is bad and folks in this logic trap are going to continue to vote Republican and kill themselves unless Democrats, or anyone, can find a way around the trap. Democrats need to show that government is a good thing. If they don't, they may still win a few elections, but that most likely won't eliminate the hopelessness of a great swath of our society.  

    Comments

    Could it be the case that Republican/Fox/Hate radio ideology is indirectly killing The GOP Base?

    Perhaps O'Reilly can write a book on it, highlighting his part in promoting hopelessness, delusions, hate and a distorted take on reality, politics and government.
     


    Thanks, NCD. The Republicans are killing their own base---I think it's true. Actually when I look at the box some folks are in---unless they give up a belief system they are literally out of options---I feel more sympathy for them than disdain.  


    ...and heaven help us, some form of redistribution of assets.

    It's an interesting conundrum.  I think most people fear that they will be distributed from, not distributed to.  Given the low bar the government sets for poverty, it's not an irrational fear.  If your household makes, for example, $75,000 a year, would you be giving or getting in a redistribution scenario?


    Thanks, Michael.

    Redistribution is a slippery slope. For example I have been picking at Hal, not so much on the Clinton stuff but just a kind of nonchalance---oh, well, Gloria Steinem has enough income, put her on the target list for review. Sounds like a Collective.

    But the arguments are similar even on the lowest economic rungs---so while Democrats are all enthralled with creating more equality through government action, they ought to seriously look at Kentucky and Houston---there may be a hell of a backlash lying out there in the weeds.

    I'm thinking redistribution over the long term, CEO pay but not mine, that sort of thing.

     


    We could use redistribution of Congress. With lead boots into the Potomac.

    The next might try to ensure that a life saving 60 year old pill that was grandfathered in before FDA reworked its regulations in 2006 does not cost $750 here and $0.66 cents in the UK. Hospitals are not allowed to to buy drugs not registered here, and it raises costs for everything else they do. A simple exemption allowing hospitals to shop overseas would end the problem, but require Congress to do something. They won't. Ever.

    The GOP tells us government is the problem. It can't help you so vote for Republicans, we'll ensure it does nothing, solves nothing, fixes nothing. And we will fight Obama, Hillary and liberals if they try to fix a problem. Cuz it's impossible to fix anything, but we, the GOP can promise stuff forever and ever, over and over, like walls, balanced budgets, wars that pay for themselves, tax cuts that raise tax revenue.

    The Base believes it. So we have a Congress not worth a rat's ass for main street, and which entertains and distracts the Fox news/Hate radio rubes and raises money for re-election with endless years of Hillary/Obama/liberal/Democrat bashing as they......Benghaaaaaaaazi us into a stupor.


    Us arguing the differences between Hillary and Bernie probably has the Republican strategists laughing up their sleeves as in their mind the differences are small and we are heading into a useful storm of white resentment which will work to their favor.  

    If I were less of a Democrat I would look at these Sanders apostles with a good deal of skepticism and even fear.  


    Agree on that!


    I wonder if the uptick is not so much of a "white" middle class matter as an occupational outcome that burdens those who have certain kinds of jobs. Perhaps there are a disproportionate number of positions given to white people that tend to kill them. Everybody and their brother have done everything they can to get these jobs. Certain groups get hired more than others. That effort alone probably kills people. In any case, I am pretty sure I have made my point.

    I have had jobs that came close to killing me and I may accept another one. That is the American Way. If there is a better way to do this thing, it won't just be about sharing profits or not. The topic involves how we make things.

    In terms of the vitality of the economy, it mostly has been presented as a choice between a feverish orgy of production and a Stalinist supermarket stocked with few things to buy or sell. I don't see much point in pinning down more fair forms of taxation if we cannot improve the market. Whatever one might say about the politics of unions, they at least had the courage to bring up the subject.

    We need more of that kind of thing.


    No Moat, the uptick is not due to "certain kinds of jobs". Or jobs you had or may have.

    NYT:

    Rising substance abuse, including alcohol-related disease and painkiller overdose, was the main cause of the disturbing trend.

    The Study PDF:

    Fig. 2 presents the three causes of death that account for the
    mortality reversal among white non-Hispanics, namely suicide, drug
    and alcohol poisoning (accidental and intent undetermined), and
    chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis . All three increased year-on-year after 1998.
     
    Repeat: the uptick was NOT NOTED in white or non-white Hispanics, or blacks, or in other western nations - which would lead one to throw out the 'white middle age folks do all the dangerous jobs and then die from them' hypothesis.
    Good luck though if you do take a 'risky' job, and be safe.

    Fair enough. My observation did not explain the phenomenon. It merely provided anecdotal evidence of a kind that may or may not matter.

    On the other hand, an abundance of self destructive behavior is also not self explanatory. It is not like the causes of death you cited can be removed from considerations of other reasons why they happened. Put another way, substance abuse is not something that happens outside of everything else.


    Everything else isn't having similar results with Hispanics or Blacks. Or the similar groups in other nations.

    Keep wondering.

    I wonder how long Rupert Murdoch will be around, and how many years or decades Bill O'Reilly will outlive his viewer cohort.


    Like that has anything to do with what I was talking about.


    Your position is backed up somewhat by the two prestigious medical journals that refused to publish the study. Their issue was basically that it is extensive data without any documented causation. It's a reasonable argument, in that while the statistical information is not in dispute the very difficult work of (at least) theorizing why isn't there. Without that, it seems to me an incomplete study left to major interpretation.


    The Nobel Prize winning author reported the increased death rate and the causes of death that were above other groups. The authors did not attempt in the PNAS paper to discern why this group was committing suicide and dying of alcoholism at high rates, they just reported it was happening.

    And they published the findings in a prestigious journal, The Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.

    Krugman at the NYT today said on this study:

    So what is going on? In a recent interview Mr. Deaton suggested that middle-aged whites have “lost the narrative of their lives.” That is, their economic setbacks have hit hard because they expected better. Or to put it a bit differently, we’re looking at people who were raised to believe in the American Dream, and are coping badly with its failure to come true.

    That sounds like a plausible hypothesis to me, but the truth is that we don’t really know why despair appears to be spreading across Middle America. But it clearly is, with troubling consequences for our society as a whole.

    That is all there is on this, the causes were not accidents or work related deaths. I would suggest reading the study. Feel free to wonder onward about jobs or your theories & opinions, the facts are in the study.

    If there is anyone here who wants the facts, check the PNAS published study link, the NYT link, and Krugman's commentary.


    I think Krugman's point on failing to meet expectations is in fact a major cause of the increase in mortality for this group.

    One of the low points in my life was when I realized I had to start over finding a way to make a living. But I had some business experience to fall back on, and forced myself to get out there and market a new service even though I hated every minute of it. And I didn't watch Fox News.


    NCD, there are many possible reasons why this might be happening. But, your assertion that "that is all there is on this" is precisely the problem. And that it has opened a Pandora's box of supposition on both sides of the political aisle is a direct result.

    PS - I hope you appreciate that I had to subject myself to Breitbart for this.


    Thanks, Barefooted. Are you surprised by the results? It just seems to me that in times past, hardship was one thing, but tossing in the towel wasn't a solution.


    Am I surprised? Not particularly. Especially considering the at least decade long epidemic of prescription drug abuse, which has lead to a major increase in heroin use, in majority white states. White people everywhere have greater access to doctors for opiate prescriptions and generally more cash-on-hand for alcohol. Beyond those general thoughts, I've no idea.


    Well, I'm trying to understand this phenomenon better because my concern is that we are going to be burning up the tablets the next year parsing how much equality we want to dish out and the issue of who wants it or not and why will be glossed over and underestimated by Democrats.  I'm not sure by the time the election rolls around whether or not people are going to be in the mood to vote for more equality.  


    I get that, Oxy, and it's worth the worry. I'm just not sure that this study and what it may or may not indicate fits. That's why statistics left bald get cold.


    Moat, thanks for your comments. The reality of work place safety occupies a great deal of my time running a small enterprise which I probably wouldn't have undertaken in my 50's if I hadn't run out of conventional job opportunities and blown off a graduate business degree to do "art". Fortunately this sojourn included a lot of exercise and dietary awareness, which has helped me physically. In any case I can relate to your point, and think it is a plausible explanation.

    Also, agree that some solutions don't require tax changes---I'm thinking of a recent Stiglitz article in which he argues that the mere practice of awarding CEO's stock options as a form of compensation has been  a major contributor to broad worker compensation deterioration, especially when combined with the decline in union membership.


    Well I didn't express myself very well. I meant that having certain kinds of jobs might be a factor in the self destructive causes of death cited in the study. That having would include the environment of the work place, of course. But I was thinking of how so many people I know seem to be expected to maintain high levels of production for long periods of time with steadily declining levels of support. My industry tends to concentrate responsibility as much as possible. This makes it difficult to delegate tasks and train other people to share the load. That stress could add to the effects of substance abuse or contribute to increased levels of consumption.

    Considering the other stressors mentioned here and in the linked articles, I can appreciate how difficult it would be to design a study that would separately account for all the possible influences.
     


    Thanks, Moat. That pattern of loading people up can be deadly.


    From Digby - ah look at all the lonely happy people:

    For Dick - what the hell? they shrunk the Orchestra!

    Guess it just needs a piano

    Maybe part of the problem is people expecting to be center stage and not accepting support roles, raised on exceptionalism? These ladies don't look too unhappy, just part of society as a whole - even in Cuba they seem happy. What's wrong with us?

    [section on Sweet Home Alabama at 58:30 is worth the price of admission all by itself, but much much more]

     


    Perfect, pp. Thanks.


    Lulu, great reference. The hippies, yes, got off to a very bad start.

    And that's a Franzen kind of insight---that Russian males got healthier when the price of vodka went up. And it brings up a host of potential contradictions---like wall to wall pot. 

    And it brings up a point which I will mention before someone else does---I haven't actually made the case that the people who are dying are the ones caught in the trap. My impression is that they are concentrated in the red states and I'd eat one of the new 2 lb. Snickers bars if they had any affinity for Democrats, and didn't watch Fox News for a good part of the day---but that isn't proof. I have to recheck the actual survey data.


    Partly I'm going on some arm chair research and what my ever lovin eyes tell me when I go into the local markets and shops here in rural Texas. There are just tons of very unhealthy looking thirty and forty year olds---many of them dragging along giant soda's (not egg creams) , huffing and puffing, stacking the carts full of chips and dip. If any of them listens to Hal or Rachel Maddow I would eat another Snickers bar---(yeah, the Race Trac cashier said, we're sellin a lot of those).


    Diet drinks seem to be super unhealthy - why it's taken so long to figure out, i dunno.


    I really like this... after work today, I will come back and comment!


    Much obliged.


    The study looks at past years.  A health care system that was only for those who could pay the high fees could also be a reason.