The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Withdrawal from Afghanistan, Obama's 3 Options

    By NCD on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 12:39pm |

    How bold will Obama be, or will he go with leaving the the big decisions to the military? General Petraeus says we have made tremendous achievements in the region, yet, our progress is 'fragile and reversible'. (Is progress ever not reversible, especially in Afghanistan?) Information on options from Yahoo link.

    Small - Most likely in my opinion, hope I am wrong. Gets 5,000 to 10,000 troops home by Christmas.  In 2012 - 10K to 20K may come home, numbers are left to Pentagon and the US military field commanders.  Keeps the fighting season of 2012 in mind. Afghanistan has a summer fighting season, like baseball season, fighting season begins in the spring when the Taliban fighters come across the mountains from our ally Pakistan to kill our troops and Afghan forces, and ends in winter when they go back to Pakistan to rest up.  It is a long established national pastime in the region. This plan is the least bold, most indecisive plan which would kick the can down the road.  It avoids the possibility of bad news 'on the ground' before the 2012 election. If there is bad news it could be blamed on the field commanders/Pentagon, not the administration. The Pentagon believes this slow drawdown plan will make the Taliban 'get serious' (Lt. Gen Barno-Diane Rhem Show) about negotiations, and if we leave too fast, the region will collapse into conflicts.

    Medium - 20,000 troops out this year, 40,000 out 2012 (leaving 30-40,000 until 2014).  AEI's Fred Kagan doesn't like this plan, he says that after 10 years Afghanistan has only 6,000 'local security forces', and removing US forces will encourage Afghans to 'sit on the fence' undermining 'local security' (if they want security as Kagan defines it, why would they sit on the fence?).

    Large - Biden Plan - Withdraw 50,000 troops this year, half that are there now, 30,000 in 2012, leave 20,000 by 2013. Remain 'lean and lethal' targeting terrorist leaders, withdrawal would make Afghans and Karzai accountable for security in most of their country.

    I would prefer the Biden Plan. It is the unfortunate case that any large NATO/US withdrawal would pull the rug out from under the Afghan economy (and continuing the war indefinitely  will pull what is left of the rug out from under our economy!):

    The World Bank found that a whopping 97 percent of the gross domestic product in Afghanistan is linked to spending by the international military and donor community (my note: 97% of the Afghan economy is the war)...

    Anyone care to say what they think the word will be tonight from Obama?

    Comments

    I predict small.


    by Dan Kervick on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 1:33pm

    LA Times says it's 10,000 by year's end, which will leave 90,000 there, plus some 90,000 contracted what-evers.  Wow.  And no hint of changing strategies, of course, this one's working so well.

    The big news will likely be that he's withdrawing more than Gates wanted.  "Obama Bucks Gates" or some such.


    by we are stardust on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 2:04pm

    NYT : withdrawal of 10,000 American troops from Afghanistan this year, and another 20,000 troops..by the end of summer 2011...

    Seems like the small plan on steroids, O is not leaving it to the 'commanders in the field' on next years numbers, and Petraeus has apparently not endorsed the plan in its entirety. Shockingly bold and what most Americans want - out of this war.

    I doubt the GOP will make much hay out of this ,even if it leads to the Taliban resurgence in some areas, people are sick of this war. Nice to see Obama bucking the Pentagon brass by ending the surge next year, and perhaps the whole war not long afterward, say 2013-14.

     


    by NCD on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 3:39pm

    Actually, they said  "...that he will order the withdrawal of 10,000 American troops from Afghanistan this year, and another 20,000 troops, the remainder of the 2009 “surge,” by the end of next summer, according to administration officials and diplomats briefed on the decision."

    'The end of next summer' is 2012, not 2011, if I'm doing the math right.  And a letter going out soon to the Prez from John Garamamendi, and 46 others or so asking for more significant drawdowns NOW.

    Why the hell they don't figure out what the Pashtuns are fighting for is beyond me; makes you think our presence there isn't about peace or stability at all.



    by we are stardust on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 4:16pm

    Correct, 2012 to end the surge.

    On another topic, I highly recommend the video at this link, 6+ minutes, of Obama, wife and kids in their recent trip to Ireland.

    Video has some great photo's, video clips and audio of some of the speeches he gave, signs said 'Welcome Home' and the crowds filled the streets. Obama even downs a Guinness in an Irish pub, and picks up a few Irish kids to the delight of their parents.

    Video at: http://www.youtube.com/user/TheObamaDiary#p/u/3/j7N4rECdHPo


    by NCD on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 4:32pm

    Okay; I'm all misty and want a Guiness.  Now what?  I say how nice he thinks 'springtime's just around the corner' and 'yes we can'?  Does he have a clue what we are facing out here in not-DeeCee?  Not sure where you are going with this...  Does he know what the Irish are facing?


    by we are stardust on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 5:04pm

    Both he and the Irish know what they are facing.  One gets the impression Obama connects with people and is liked and respected, which is more than could be said of his shoe dodging predecessor.

    His bolder than expected decision on the Afghan pullout may indicate he is gaining some confidence to move on his own on issues at home and abroad that need American leadership.  The GOP, Fox News, Koch and Co. and the know nothing voters of the right wing base will be fighting him every step, of course.


    by NCD on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 5:22pm

    It would be good if you're right; it is election season, so maybe he's listening better.


    by we are stardust on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 6:15pm

    I'm predicting small as well.  He's just not going to go with my plan of taking everyone out now and letting China deal with it if they want the mining rights so badly.


    by Michael Maiello on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 2:30pm

    Do you believe,as long as China doesn't meddle in Governmental affairs,China will get along just fine, they'll get to mine the minerals and the Al Qaeda will provide a protection for them for a price.

    The enemy of my enemy is my friend?

     


    by Resistance on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 3:35pm

    No.  I believe the crooked Chinese government will strike all sorts of crooked deals with the crooked Karzai government, that will include a flood of cheaply made Chinese weapons into the region, which will initially be distributed to the Afghan security forces but will all wind up in the hands of the Taliban, who will suck the Chinese into a never ending conflict and teach them a thing or two about wanting to be an empire.

    The first part of this has already happened in sub-Saharan Africa.  The second part could only happen in Afghanistan.  We should leave and let China blunder into its own quagmire.


    by Michael Maiello on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 3:48pm

    I haven't kept up with the sub -Saharan Africa and the Chinese, could you share your perspective?


    by Resistance on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 9:31pm

    I would sleep a lot better under the Biden Plan...


    by Richard Day on Wed, 06/22/2011 - 2:58pm

    It's really none of the above. See Spencer Ackerman

    www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/06/obama-wont-use-troops-to-save-afghan-he...


    by anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 06/23/2011 - 11:55am

    Yes, saw an article yesterday that said the US Generals were all set to surge right up to the Pakistan border, and 'secure' it and the local Afghan provinces. The Obama troop cuts will deny them that crazy plan for endless fighting, which might spill over into incursions into Pakistan, where all the terrorists live, rest up, receive arms and find sanctuary.

    The GWOT is a gift that keeps on giving for Pak to the tune of billions from the US, which is why Pak harbors the likes of OBL, al Qaeda and the Taliban.

    Pak wants to keep the war going forever. Obama's recent moves to demand action from Pak have pissed them off, they much preferred the blank checks from Dubya days, free money and weapons, with no accountability for getting the bad guys on their side of the border.

    I suppose if the Pentagon couldn't secure the Afghan-Pak border by 2014 the next step would be enforcing a demilitarized zone in Pak, followed by drone bombing terrorists hiding within the ISI in Islamamommabadd.


    by NCD on Thu, 06/23/2011 - 12:41pm

    Wired has another link from the same reporter, David Axe, from a few months ago in Logar Province, Afghanistan, where he describes going along on a Petraeus COIN (counter-insurgency) mission to one of the Afghan border provinces where the kids throw rocks at the Americans, the elders are unfriendly, the soccer balls are given away, and on leaving the troops and Axe are blown up by an IED while riding in a MRAP vehicle.

    The story reinforces the insanity of Petraeus and the Pentagon in trying to 'win the hearts and minds' of folks in those regions.

    http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/03/blown-to-hell/all/1


    by NCD on Thu, 06/23/2011 - 1:20pm