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Articleman is doing the things an article can. What's he like? It's not important. But Articleman is a photographer, a Democrat, a lawyer, a cancer survivor, a guest Wednesdays at 8:05 am Pacific talking current events on www.krxa540.com, famously intolerant of anger for its own sake, a co-founder of dagblog, and like Bob Dole, just a man.

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Articleman Defeats Sabato, Silver, in Presidential, Senate Predictions

by Articleman 11/11/2012 - 6:50 pm   |

Hi all.  Just wanted to say thank you for the dialogue in the blogs about the recently-concluded elections.  It was an exciting and sometimes harrowing ride, through the conventions, the debates, and a strange Election Day and night.  

While doing so, I thought it fair to point out that for the second cycle in a row, yours truly outpicked Larry Sabato and Nate Silver in the Senate races, and in this cycle, the Presidential as well. [Read more]

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Articleman's Final Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 332 (50.6%), Romney 206 (48.3%)

by Articleman 11/5/2012 - 1:32 am   |

Please join me Tuesday for a liveblog of the 2012 election.  I have already explained in a separate post why I predict that Democrats will pick up one seat in an uphill Senate cycle.  This blog details my view of the current state of the Presidential race, which explains why I believe President Obama is certain to win re-election, as well as the states and electoral vote total I think he will win.  Would love to hear your different predictions, if any.  Here we go: [Read more]

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Senate Forecast -- 54 D, 46 R: Don't Tread on D, or Tea Party Pads Dem Majority

by Articleman 11/4/2012 - 6:43 pm   |

The Democrats are going to hold the Senate.  Let's get that out of the way.  The question is by what margin.  That the Democrats hold it at all is a historical anomaly.  Since direct popular election of the Senate began around World War I, the House had changed hands from one of the major parties to the other eight times -- and all eight times, the Senate did too.  The Tea Party helped make this history in 2010, when the nominations of Sharron Angle (Nevada), Christine O'Donnell (Delaware), and Ken Buck (Colorado) cost it three seats in the Senate.  Absent those clear mistakes, the GOP would likely have had 50 Senate seats for the last two years.  This time out, the mistakes were Todd Akin (Missouri), and Richard Mourdock (Indiana).  Like the other three mistakes, they were all the most conservative nominee in their respective primary fields.  Mourdock, like O'Donnell, helped retire a more-liked and more-moderate Republican incumbent (Rep. Castle in Delaware, Sen. Lugar in Indiana).  Lacking these latest two mistakes, the GOP would have 51 Senators for the next two years.  This blog explains why, instead, there will be 54 Democrats (or Democrat-caucusing independents), and 46 Republicans (or Republican-caucusing independents).  Before beginning, the author humbly notes that in 2010, he was one seat more accurate than both Sabato and Silver, as we all missed Nevada and Colorado, while I had Murkowski in Alaska and they did not.  Onward to the Democratic gains likely on Tuesday, in what was supposed to be a Republican cycle: [Read more]

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7 Days Left: Obama Bounces Before Sandy Pounces: Obama's Rise in All Swing States From Oct. 16-22 to Oct. 23-29

by Articleman 10/30/2012 - 11:27 pm   |

Before the devastation of Superstorm Sandy put the Presidential campaigning on hold (as of course it should, no matter how close in time the election is), it was clear that President Obama had moved up in the swing states, taking as the inflection point (the point for before/after comparison) October 23, the day after the third Presidential debate.  One week after that date, it is easy to illustrate that the race has changed very slightly, but significantly, in the swing states that will decide the election.  This blog does that, by taking the polling in each swing state, using October 23 as the break point to compare polling before and after, and also comparing the Obama/Romney matchup in "apples to apples" comparisons in which a given pollster (say, ARG) polled the [Read more]

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9 Days Left: Romney Draws Decent (But Old) Number in OH, Obama Up in NH, MN (Late OH Update)

by Articleman 10/28/2012 - 7:36 pm   |

There was a bit of drama in Poll Land on Sunday, as a well-respected source in Ohio released The Ohio Poll, showing a dead heat between President Obama and Governor Romney.  It was the third poll that ever showed Romney hitting 49 in Ohio (Obama has hit 50 19 times, including in the other two polls that showed Romney at 49).  Indeed, two polls posted late Sunday night corroborated the theory of this piece that The Ohio Poll was taken during a modest recession in the President's poll numbers.  Moreover, other state polls released Sunday were consistent with the race being roughly even in popular vote, with the President leading narrowly in key states.  This race remains on course for a narrow Obama victory, most likely as a result of the President winning either Ohio (where he has led this week and most of the last two months) or Virginia (where he has seemingly moved into a tie).  Here is why the data continue to favor that narrow Obama win: [Read more]

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10 Days Left: Virginia Drifting From Romney, No Signs of Romney Revival

by Articleman 10/28/2012 - 1:27 am   |

Time is running out on Mitt Romney's campaign for President, which seems to have roared back into a competitive posture, but not the lead its cheerleaders in the media would wish.  Here's what the polls showed in another day that provided some good news for Obama, and no more good news for Romney. [Read more]

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11 Days Left: Bad State Polling For Romney Lights Obama's Path, Shows Romney Surge Is Over

by Articleman 10/27/2012 - 1:54 am   |

October 26 was a good day for President Obama's re-election prospects, though not for the portrayal of his campaign in conservative media.  The volume of positive state polls for the President provide very good news for him as the campaign heads to its last full week, though as we discussed yesterday, it can be challenging to reconcile them with national polling that tends to show an even race or a tiny Romney lead.  Meanwhile, the Romney campaign and its allies in media are very assertively advancing the argument that Romney is surging.  This blog explains the implausibility of that claim, and how President Obama is closing in on re-election, with ten days of campaigning ahead. [Read more]

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12 Days Left: Obama Trails in National Polls, But Likely To Win Electoral College

by Articleman 10/26/2012 - 2:10 am   |

Today was a strange day of polling, like many others in 2012 -- it showed that Mitt Romney apparently leads in national polling, but is unlikely to win the Presidency.  All campaign long, the national and state polls have been subtly but clearly irreconcilable.  Today was more of the same, as the Obama momentum from the President's debate win Monday seemed to continue in state polls, but not in national polls.  The path to the White House is clarifying further, and it runs through Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  Here's what today's data set showed. [Read more]

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13 Days Left: Obama Surging in October 24 Polling Data

by Articleman 10/25/2012 - 1:07 am   |

Today was undoubtedly a good day for President Obama.  Both national and state polls suggested that he gained as a result of his debate win on Monday, state polls showed that Mitt Romney's electoral path is narrowing, and the national political story of the day impliedly aids President Obama.  Here's an analysis of the day's data. [Read more]

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Forward, Indeed: Obama Sunk Mitt's Battleship

by Articleman 10/23/2012 - 12:46 am   |

Someone keep Mitt Romney out of Boca Raton.  Last time he was in town, it was all 47% and I'd be President if I were Mexican.  Tonight?  Oy.  You know how you can tell Barack Obama peeled the bark off of his debating opponent this evening?  Click on RealClearPolitics.com.  It's burying the snap polls about the debate.  (What debate?  There was a debate?)  Or look around the Internet -- Kudlow tweeted that Romney was on Valium, and Hannity is angry that Libya was not a topic this evening.  This was Denver in reverse -- Romney assuming the role of the front-runner who didn't want to disagree, and who accepted harsh criticisms without rebutting them.  Just as Romney won the CBS poll of undecided voters by 24 in Denver, President Obama won that poll tonight by 30.  It is hard to see after tonight how President Obama does not win re-election. [Read more]

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