Donal's picture

    Double-Dip or Great Contraction?


     

    While I was away from the internet last week, some suit on CBS said that once an entity was downgraded, they stayed downgraded. I bought a Washington Post to read more about the crappy debt ceiling agreement. I read the whole damn thing, then put some recycled wood trim on top of it for scraping, cleaning and restaining. Our old trim is hard, or heart, pine, and is much harder than the soft pine they sell now. You can dent soft pine with a fingernail.

    On TV we heard about the downgrade to AA+, so I bought a New York Times. In another article, some bigwig said that right now the top 25% had recovered from the Great Recession, but that the other 75% still lacked confidence. "Ha!," I told my wife. "More like 25% at the top are fine, 25% at the bottom are screwed and the fifty percent in the middle aren't sure where they'll end up." And then I did some more scraping, cleaning and staining.

    Then on TV, other suits began talking about what the US had to do to get our AAA rating again, which the suit a few days ago said couldn't happen. Hmmm.

    Financial outlets are now buzzing about the possibility of a double-dip recession. In a news item I posted, Just How Bad is Bad?, Dr Doom himself, Nouriel Roubini, thinks we can avoid a double-dip, but that anemic growth will be the norm. Ian Bremmer predicts QE3. Roubini says that we are in a period of reducing debt that will take many years. Both think the government is out of bullets.

    The energy depletion crowd, such as Richard Heinberg, thinks that we have only been in a stimulus buzz for the last several quarters, and that real growth has been over since before 2007. Double Dip My Aunt Fanny! writes Sharon Astyk:

    The reason you shouldn't be worried is that the good news is that the US was never *really* out of a recession. Sure, in economist terms, we technically had some quarters of growth and a nice extended stock market rally, but in the net, what really changed for most people? Unemployment declined only marginally and stayed above 9% during the entire period - 5 years ago 9% would have been a crisis, not a rallying point. Functionally, close to 20% of the US population is unemployed or under-employed. The housing market, into which much of our "wealth" was poured early in the century has never recovered. Energy and food prices have undermined household security, and more people are food insecure in the US than at any time since the Great Depression. Consumer spending, which is used to drive recovery has been stagnant.

    Astyk quotes Ezra Klein in the Washington Post, which makes a great dropcloth BTW, who channels Harvard Economist Ken Rogoff:

    Recessions, he argues, imply a very particular economic phenomena: a business-cycle recession, in which the drop is quick, and the recovery is usually similarly swift. That is not what we're in. That is not what financial crises are. And mistaking one for the other has, in his opinion, cost us a fortune.

    Financial crises are not about the business cycle falling out of whack. They're about debt. Lots of it. And that's why they're so resistant to efforts to speed a recovery. Whereas you normally get out of a recession by lowering interest rates and persuading consumers to spend, the period after a financial crisis is marked by consumers trying to dig out from under a mountain of borrowed money. You can accelerate that process, but it's hard to do. But first you must correctly diagnose the problem.

    Rogoff has suggested we call this period the "Great Contraction" in order to distinguish it from more normal recessions. You may or may not like the name, but consider this: When we talk about double-dip recessions, that implies, as the National Bureau of Economic Research has said, that the recession ended in summer 2009, and we've been recovering ever since. The Great Contraction, conversely, suggests we have been, and remain, mired in an ongoing financial crisis. Which better describes the economy you see?,

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    I agree that we shouldn't view what has happened as a standard recession.   But I also don't think it is accurate to see it entirely as a "financial crisis".

    Sure people are digging out of debt.   And sure, over time, people might start building up more credit card and mortgage debt again as they regain a bit of "confidence".   Consumption and real estate will rebound.   But I wouldn't count on the old levels of household debt debt coming back.  And even if they do, that is really not a good thing since excessive household debt was a major contributing cause to both the blowing up and popping of the financial bubble that precipitated this crisis.  If we reinflate the credit bubble and don't address the structural pathologies that produced the bubble in the first place, we'll just get another rapid crash.

    The fact is that we have had a widening income gap in this country, and it is finally catching up with our overall economic health.   The affluent have appropriated and extracted so much from everyone else, through a long-term pattern of holding bottom-half incomes flat while encouraging surges in short-term material affluence through the piling on of debt, that the ordinary American no longer has sufficient income to spend at levels that can sustain the income and lifestyle of their more affluent fellow-countrymen in the manner to which the latter have become accustomed.  The long-term solution to this problem cannot consist in encouraging income-strapped Americans to pile on more debt.   That racket has become unsustainable and has come unwound.

    To say we are in the midst of a financial crisis suggests that people are eager to acquire credit and borrow a lot more, but cannot get the credit they need.   But most people can still get credit cards, can't they?   They don't want that much more credit because they finally learned the hard way that they no longer have income levels that sustainably support the heavy debt loads they used to take on.

    Those who have plenty of money see the problem as a frustrating reluctance on the part of ordinary Americans to borrow the money of the affluent, and indenture themselves to the affluent.  The monied are eager to start sucking more fees, interest payments and rents out of everyone else again, in exchange for providing the short-term cash flow necessary for ordinary people to buy the stuff that is sold by the companies that are also owned by the affluent.  But ordinary Americans don't need more credit; they need more income.

    That additional income exists, in great abundance, to rebuild the broad capital base of society.   But it is trapped in the vise-like and jealous grip of its present owners.  In bygone times, we know that collapses in agriculture were sometimes caused by absurdly unequal, and hence inefficient, distributions of farmland.   The sustainable and progressive solution did not consist in even more feudalism and tenant farming.  The only solution - the one that is both morally and economically progressive - was to undertake land reform.  That meant taking hoarded lands from people who had abundant, surplus amounts of it and giving those lands to others who were zealous to acquire real property and work it.

    That's what we need now too.  But rather than redistribute land we need to redistribute other forms of wealth via the instrument of money.  Gross inequality is not just unjust, it is also economically inefficient and destructive.   The entire society does less well, on aggregate, when its wealth is hoarded in unbalanced, concentrated pockets.  When this happens, public action must rectify the distributive inefficiencies of private accumulation

    We don't want people to start borrowing again at their old destructive and unsustainable levels.  We need to get more actual income into their hands, so they can feel their standards of living rising in a reasonable way on the basis of something other than adding a new credit card each year, or borrowing against inflated home equity.  And we need to put a system in place that prevents massive income gaps from growing in the first place.  That will give people the confidence that their hard work will pay off in terms of rising income, rather than stagnating income coupled with invitations to accumulate more debt.

    Instead of the "financial crisis", or the "great contraction", maybe progressives should start referring to what has been happening as the Great Income Crash.  Two decades of widening the gap between the top and the bottom and suppressing income growth of the bottom, in a context of widening overall desire and affluence, with the consumption-production balance strained to the breaking point by its dependence on consumer borrowing and indebtedness to the same people from whom these consumers buy the consumption goods, has resulted in a general collapse of the consumption levels and work levels that were the engine for our previous levels of economic activity.  They can't be restored just by boosting confidence and restoring old debt levels.

    The most obvious manifestation of the income crash is the most harsh and extreme version of income loss - unemployment.   But rather than move to mobilize and redistribute resources to provide productive work opportunities and income to the unemployed, our society's affluent classes, with the assistance of the political parties and governing institutions they own, have decided on a strategy of simply downsizing themselves, and writing off the unemployed as an abandoned resource, while moving to diminish the power of government and stanch the redistributive flows through government.   These politically powerful elites have also moved to protect rigorously the interests of creditors and prevent any efforts by debtors to obtain relief from government.  The government's response has been to start building gated communities around the assets of the most well-off members of our society, and to make sure that nobody outside these communities gets their hands of the stuff of people inside those communities.

    When I listen to NPR these days, or read the major newspapers, or view other major media outlets, I hear a culturally and economically smug ruling class, some self-identifying as liberal and some as conservative, in general mutual agreement on the best way to proceed: thwart the efforts of people to use the only effective tool at their disposal in the face of an economic aristocracy - a powerful and activist democratic government.  You hear much the same story if you listen to priggish hectoring coming out of the UK.

    The big lie these days is that, because state and local and federal governments are shutting down and curtailing operations, that is because we have "run out of money" - or because the government is "out of bullets."  But of course even the smallest of governments can run out of money if those who run that government refuse to collect the revenues needed to fund its operations.  If I am making a handsome income, but refuse to put gas in my car, my car will run out of gas.   Maybe people will be fooled and say, "Poor Kervick!  He's so poor that he's now running at of gas!"  But they would be wrong in their conclusion about what is going on.

    And as for bullets:  The public has vast armories of governmental heavy weapons, with all the ammunition these weapons need.  But the weapons are locked up in well-guarded armories by those who have seized effective ownership of the government, who who are determined to prevent their use.


    Those who have plenty of money see the problem as a frustrating reluctance on the part of ordinary Americans to borrow the money of the affluent, and indenture themselves to the affluent.

     I owe my soul to the company store .... I really think you've nailed it in your comment, and I've always wondered why the affluent want to turn America into Brazil. I suspect they watch too much Masterpiece Theatre and think they will be the lords and ladies of the manors no matter how bad it gets for everyone else.


    Turn us into Brazil?  if only...

    Bill Gross likes Brazilian currency.


    Good point about lords and ladies. They are truly insulated from the travails of the lower classes. I don't think we're going to have a double dip recession in the traditional sense--ie, a downturn in sales, inventory overhang, manufacturing slowdown, etc.

    I think the Republican party in large part wanted to destroy confidence and keep the economy struggling so Obama would fail. But what's happening now is outside the model, will hurt large corporations if it continues, and I think the Republicans in Congress will be made to behave by their masters. At this point if the market continues to tank the rich will lose far more in equity investments than they would ever have lost via a tax increase. At some point sanity will come into play.


    Well said, Dan.

    I came across a statistic in the course of reading David Coates' excellent Making the Progressive Case: Towards a Stronger U.S. Economy (page 25).  Between November 2008 and April 2010 about 39 of households had either been unemployed, had negative equity in their house, or had been in arrears on their house payments.

    If that statistic were, say, 59 percent, what do you think the politics in our country would look like now?  Would our dominant national ideology of hatred for our government in the abstract and extensive reliance on it in fact preclude a federal government response possibly adequate to the magnitude of the problems?  Would the typical person among the 59 percent daydream about striking it rich some day soon, or at least being among the 41 percent, and look down their noses at all the losers in the 59 percent of which they were a part, and any politician or political party deigning to advocate for some version of the national interest that enabled them to survive?


    Here's a depressing thought: what percentage of that 39% do you think will still vote for Republicans?


    That's a good question.   To go back to the question that was raised the other day about the stories people hear that enable them to explain what is happening to them, what stories are people presented with to help them make sense of their feeling that their way of life is slipping away, and something very important is being taken from them?

    One story they hear from many Republicans is, "You are falling behind and losing ground because a bunch of lazy, entitled poor people, and improvident sick people, are stealing your hard earned money to give themselves undeserved entitlement payments."

    What countervailing story are they hearing from Democrats?  Frankly, the dominant theme from the White House has been something like, "You have all been bad little greedy piggies.  Now it's time to sit up straight, eat your peas, tighten your belts and go to your rooms.   I'm cutting your allowance.  No extra government programs for you!"  This story does nothing to fight the Republican story, and actually seems to buttress it.

    If they are paying attention to stories being told around the periphery, they might be hearing all sorts of things about Wall Street fraud; investment bankers betting against and stealing from their own clients; mortgage mills run by reputedly respectable companies churning out liars loans and flim-flam; repossession shakedown operations; massively wealthy people and companies paying no taxes and hiding their money outside of the country; a Treasury Department that is run as a franchise of the largest of the shady investment banks; bought-off regulators turning the economy over to predators who then wrecked it, etc.

    But that story is not validated by the national leader many of them trust most.  So it isn't able to get the same political traction as the Republican story.


    And what percent of that 39% will, hearing Obama's proposals on jobs and the economy, think there's not much hope there and figure what the hell, at least the Republican presidential candidate will cut my taxes a little (and I'd be a bad person to take exception to rich people getting far bigger tax cuts than me, that would be un-Christian of me to be jealous like that)? Or, similarly, what percentage of that 39% will be given some positive reason to vote Democratic next year?

    My depressing thought for the day was this, from Krugman's blog entry today "Dismal Thoughts": 

     

    Robert Reich, talking to people in the administration, says that there has been a deliberate decision to focus on the wrong issues, knowing that they’re the wrong issues:

    So rather than fight for a bold jobs plan, the White House has apparently decided it’s politically wiser to continue fighting about the deficit. The idea is to keep the public focused on the deficit drama – to convince them their current economic woes have something to do with it, decry Washington’s paralysis over fixing it, and then claim victory over whatever outcome emerges from the process recently negotiated to fix it. They hope all this will distract the public’s attention from the President’s failure to do anything about continuing high unemployment and economic anemia.

     


    Dan, your initial comment was your best evah. And your second was damn good, too.

    Your solution sounds a bit like socialism, not that there's anything wrong with that.

    Just one question: given the lock the very rich have on the entire political process and every lever of power, how do ordinary people bring about the redistribution of wealth that you so rightly point out is the only solution to this nightmare? I mean, short of getting out our pitchforks, gardening shears, kitchen knives and Glocks and taking to the streets?

    Yeah, that's what I thought. See you on the barricades, comrade! Za Rossiya!


    I was going to write a reply about this acanuck, but I think it probably requires a whole blog.   I have 5 or 6 ideas about this.  But the central  idea is we need to build a large coalition of people who recognize they will all benefit.  If you are mainly redistributing from the top 5% to the bottom 95%, surely you can get a majority of people to support you?

    It's also necessary to stir up some outrage about exploitation and slick dealing.  As long as people are hung up on the idea that the rich are just successful and industrious meritocrats who create all the jobs and deserve everything they have, it's hard to get traction.


    Is there a box to check next to :

    The Royal Flush? (and no, that's not meant as a poker reference...)


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