dagblog - Comments for "Egypt To Permanently Open Gaza Border"

Good catch, Bruce.

acanuck — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 21:51:23 +0000

In reply to I haven't seen any legislator

Good catch, Bruce. Ros-Lehtinen has only called for cancellation of about $550 million in projected aid to the Palestinians. Again, much of that is for security -- arms and training that has basically propped up Fatah in the West Bank. So a similar question arises: would such a cutoff not actually undermine U.S. influence?

You're right, Bruce, and I

we are stardust — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 21:12:40 +0000

In reply to I haven't seen any legislator

You're right, Bruce, and I didn;t mean to entwine the issues. Just in too much of a hurry, as usual, to write carefully. Sorry.

I haven't seen any legislator

Bruce Levine — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 20:55:59 +0000

In reply to Ros-Lehtinen. I think it's

I haven't seen any legislator threaten to cut aid to Egypt should the border be reopened. I think the issues being raised in Congress relate to the meaning of the reconciliation deal with Hamas.

Ros-Lehtinen. I think it's

acanuck — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 20:04:54 +0000

In reply to A couple commenters at my.fdl

Ros-Lehtinen. I think it's just a billion a year, almost exclusively for military purchases. Egypt will resent the threat, and respond negatively to an actual cutoff. Since it's hard to see Egypt backing down anyway, it would be a very stupid U.S. tactic.

A couple commenters at my.fdl

we are stardust — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 17:21:58 +0000

In reply to But, of course, if the new

A couple commenters at my.fdl cynically [ ;o) ] pointed out the likelihood that the US will threaten to withhold any funds (billions, hasn't it been?) to Egypt to leverage them to back off the border crossing opening. Ackerman and Illyanna Ross-what's her name are pretty livid...

And LOL on the 'going on my resume'!

I shouldn't have left out:

acanuck — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 04:05:23 +0000

In reply to Egyptians aren't alone in

I shouldn't have left out: the Saudis have a pretty decent air force. But none of this stuff has a military solution.

Thanks for the endorsement,

acanuck — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 04:00:21 +0000

In reply to Did some poking around, and

Thanks for the endorsement, stardust. That's going on my resume.

But, of course, if the new

acanuck — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 03:57:17 +0000

In reply to Ack:Fatah's chief negotiator

But, of course, if the new cabinet is chosen by consensus -- and Hamas has indicated it won't endorse Fayyad -- Fayyad won't be PM. Both Hamas and Fatah are spinning this as a total win for their side. Maybe the whole deal will unravel, but that will really piss off the Egyptians. We'll have to wait and see.

Egyptians aren't alone in

acanuck — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 03:49:43 +0000

In reply to I think I agree with all of

Egyptians aren't alone in viewing their country as the political-cultural heart of the Arab world. The Mubarak years were seen as abandoning that historic leadership. The repression was bad, but Egyptian pride was also wounded. With "the pharaoh" gone, the demand for a robust, nationalist, home-grown foreign policy now cuts across right-left, Islamist-secular lines.

The army is happy to embrace popular sentiment as a way of distancing itself from Mubarak. Standing up to U.S. and Israeli pressure is also a net plus for the interim government, which is claiming the Palestinian deal as its first major foreign-policy achievement. This is the start of Egypt's move to reassert leadership of the Arab world; it's not going to fade, no matter which party or faction is in power.

Already, we see the Saudis sucking up to Israel as they feel themselves being marginalized. But aside from its oil wealth and control of Mecca, Saudi Arabia really is a marginal player. Israel would do a lot better to accommodate itself to a resurgent (but not necessarily hostile) Egypt than to count on that dinosaur. That would involve making the hard choices Israel keeps saying it knows it will have to make.

As for needing someone with more courage and vision than Bibi: From your lips, dude!

Ack:Fatah's chief negotiator

Bruce Levine — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 02:35:39 +0000

In reply to Fayyad's done some useful

Ack:

Fatah's chief negotiator denies that Fayyad is out:

The chief of a Fatah delegation to truce talks with Hamas, Azzam al-Ahmed, denied in an interview the New York Times that Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad would not be continuing in office.
He said the Cairo talks regarding the truce agreement had not focused at all on members of the transition government. (Elior Levy)

This really is an unfinished story, and I think Fayyad's situation is a metaphor for the extent to which the ends remain pretty loose at this point. Abbas' success at getting so many nations behind the possibility of a unilateral statehood declaration, and certainly the potential that he's going to get additional support from EU nations, has been premised on a PA with Fayyad in the picture and Hamas being, at best, beside the point.