dagblog - Comments for "Palin's Window of Opportunity"

Yeah. The reaction of shock

Doctor Cleveland — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:13:23 +0000

In reply to Spot on, IMHO. Your

Yeah. The reaction of shock to an expression of pretty common-sense facts is the shocking thing.

Y'know, if you'd added that

quinn esq — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 06:59:49 +0000

In reply to No worries. For anything

Y'know, if you'd added that "disable chicks-text" feature like Wolfrum suggested, you would:

a) Not have to worry about Sarah Palin coming on your site and lying; and,

2) Orlando.

Software - Making guys life simpler (If they install it)

Spot on, IMHO. Your

DF — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 04:35:23 +0000

In reply to Palin's Window of Opportunity

Spot on, IMHO. Your sentiment generally mirrors recent comments by Bob Schieffer:

Harry Smith's incredulous "Really?!" after Schieffer's matter of fact dismissal of Palin's political future is the icing on the cake here.

I don't think she's going to run for anything ever again. From what I understand, ending up in the Governor's office in Alaska was something of a happy accident for her. She clearly didn't want the actual job. She did, however, seem to like campaigning, so she quit actually governing to do more of that.

If you thought last year's Democratic primary was brutal, imagine what you'd see if Palin actually had to campaign in a primary against career politicians who feel like they really deserve to have the next shot. Ask yourself how tolerant you think the old boys club would be of her Caribou Barbie routine then. Hell, most GOP politicians hardly have to pretend to respect women or non-whites. Does anyone really honestly believe they'd just let Sarah the Quitter waltz in and take it from them? She'd get knee-capped faster than Nancy Kerrigan.

That is, of course, assuming that she actually wants the job. I doubt she really does.

'04 was clearly an emotional

Doctor Cleveland — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:41:00 +0000

In reply to OK, I hear you, but if I

'04 was clearly an emotional decision on the part of enough swing voters, but it made sense to me at the time, even as disappointed and angry as I was.

'04 came down to a referendum between competing visions of reality. Either Bush was strong and in control, or things were frighteningly bad and we needed Kerry, who wasn't always inspiring but was sober, to start putting things back together.

A large enough wedge of voters decided that it was accepting how bad things were was scarier than not. So they chose believing in Bush and the illusion of safety. Twelve months later, Bush could not have swung that, as the reality got harder and harder to deny.

(And no, if Putin rears his head in our airspace, some wingnut retired general will be President. The wingers won't be able to sell another chicken hawk.)

No worries. For anything

Michael Wolraich — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:32:50 +0000

In reply to Yes, thanks. Sorry to fubar

No worries. For anything other than a basic youtube video, you have click "disable rich-text" and insert the code in html.

OK, I hear you, but if I

Nebton — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:31:48 +0000

In reply to I respectfully disagree,

OK, I hear you, but if I learned anything from '04, it was not to apply logic too rigorously to the voting public.

Do you see Palin '12 as a possibility if Putin rears his head into our airspace? ;)

If, on the other hand, the

Michael Wolraich — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:31:34 +0000

In reply to I respectfully disagree,

If, on the other hand, the country's doing well and Obama seems unbeatable, those people might, *might*, allow Palin to burn out in a general that wasn't winnable anyhow, and then use her defeat to take the party back from her supporters.

I had the same thought. Also, if Obama is strong, the best Republican candidates may choose not to run, which would mean less competition for Palin.

Her winning the general would

Nebton — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:29:49 +0000

In reply to She can certainly win the

Her winning the general would definitely require the recession taking a turn for the worse (or some other disaster). However, if that happened, I wouldn't rule it out.

Yes, thanks. Sorry to fubar

Doctor Cleveland — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:29:31 +0000

In reply to She can certainly win the

Yes, thanks. Sorry to fubar it.

I respectfully disagree,

Doctor Cleveland — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:28:58 +0000

In reply to Yeah, see, the problem is

I respectfully disagree, Nebbie. I don't think Obama is invulnerable, and his electoral fortunes are tied to the general health of the country. But if things got so bad that Obama could lose to a challenger as weak as Palin, things would also be so bad that Palin would become entirely unelectable herself. Obama loses in, say, an economic disaster, but voters won't just turn to anyone in a disaster. They need someone who feels trustworthy, who seems capable of solving problems. Palin doesn't fit the bill. A demagogue could beat Obama in a national crisis, but not this particular demagogue.

Palin could do well in some Republican primaries, but not others. And I believe there are powerful interests within the Republican establishment who would oppose her ruthlessly, both because they don't want her anywhere near the White House and because they don't want a loser as their national candidate. If the White House looks even remotely winnable, they're going to put their chips on someone who can win, and they'll shed as much intraparty blood, and spend as much money, as they need, to sink Palin. If, on the other hand, the country's doing well and Obama seems unbeatable, those people might, *might*, allow Palin to burn out in a general that wasn't winnable anyhow, and then use her defeat to take the party back from her supporters.

All of this, of course, is before we factor in whether Palin can build the campaign organization she would need, whether Republican campaign operatives will want to work for her after she publicly shat upon McCain's staff, and whether she'll say or do anything stupid or crazy over the next 35 months.