dagblog - Comments for "Keeping the Leaf Going - All 3 Days"

Very interesting, Quinn. I

Peter Schwartz — Thu, 19 May 2011 17:52:16 +0000

Very interesting, Quinn. I saw the ads for the family of Prii. Got very excited about the plug-in because I had heard about the 100 mpg. However, they seem to be quoting much less, like maybe in the high 50s somewhere--still fantastic, but much less than I had hoped for.

Anyway, I understand that it's all in how you calculate it--but I was hoping for triple digits in the ads. Then again, maybe I'm remembering the wrong number.

En tout cas, thanks for all the information.

I've just started using Enerpulse plugs on our Sonata and changed my gas pedal technique and moved the car from just under 300 miles until the warning light comes on to 350 miles. I thought that was pretty interesting. All in the suburbs.

Sorry, I don't catch the

Peter Schwartz — Thu, 19 May 2011 17:39:08 +0000

In reply to "Dr Fader, you ask a lotta

Sorry, I don't catch the reference, but I DO ask a lot of questions. I have more questions than answers. And not it's not unfair for you to point anything out.

Just eyeballing the Edmunds figures, it still seems as though the payback occurs within a reasonable amount of time. I say this because my Prius is 7 seven years old and feels like new and regular gas in these parts is over $4. And it's reasonable to expect it to go higher as commodities get scarcer and scarcer.

Ultimately, of course, there are other costs, too, like the costs of pollution and the health problems that result. That's less key for the individual consumer, but should still figure into the equation, which might be one reason to continue rebates or tax credits--the cars are better for the public health.

Hey Peter. Conversations

quinn esq — Thu, 19 May 2011 16:44:37 +0000

In reply to As far as the cost of a

Hey Peter. Conversations about cars are undergirded by an enormous, geo-political, mega-corp battle going on out in the field. Which means, almost all the "information" we hear from companies, magazines, and those in the field has a major bias. If you read European car-talk from 2000-2010, it was allllll about the downsides of electrics and hybrids, allllll on how the future was... diesel. Now,the facts also happened to be that the major European carmakers made diesels, and led the world in that technology, whereas hybrids.... not so much. The result was that auto magazines, auto reviewers, newspaper columnists - by the thousands - had a real-world"keep-your-job" incentive to bash hybrid and electric technology.

The same thing existed - and exists - here. The corner was turned, fortunately, back around 2009/10, when every major automaker made the decision to invest billions in adding hybrids and plug-ins and electrics. Every. Single. One. BMW has recently headhunted top engineers from the Chevy Volt's development. Think about that. (Eek.)

Now, people will hear that, and hit the near-automatic poo-poo button. It's probably just all these companies going after rich yuppies and their guilty consciences, right? Because... that's what we've been told about Prius buyers. But if we stand back, we can see that there just are't enough greenie-weenie's or Hollywood types out there in the world to buy millions upon millions of expensive, not-cost-effective, won't work, "green" cars. So the companies are not gearing up with that segment in mind. Who are they gearing up for? Investing billions in? Along with their entire corporate and personal reputations?

All of us.

The simple fact is that hybridizing a car, in terms of straight-from-the-plant cost, is roughly $2-$4,000. And that cost continues to drop. And yet, it raises fuel efficiency (in a full hybrid) by 30%-50%-70% (depending how the engineering is done.) So over the life of the car, it could save you 1000-1500-2000-2500 gallons. At $3-$4 a gallon in the US... $4-$5 in Canada... and $6-$8-$10 in Europe and elsewhere, this makes fairly good financial sense.

Which is why most car companies are taking hybridization right across their fleets.

When it comes to your Prius, it's worth asking the same questions. Not about its precise cost today. Because that depends on how they're choosing to market it, what segment they feel they can get, the extras they feel they can package in, and supply contracts signed 2-4 years ago.

But rather, what are the real economics, and where are they going, and where is TOYOTA going with it? The real economics are that the cost to hybridize is now minor, it continues to fall, Toyota's engineers are pushing up the performance with each generation, buyers love the car, and so.... Toyota is turning the Prius into its own family, with 3-5 models planned. The Prius v was just shown off, a 5-7 person carrier with way more interior space, expected to get 40 mpg and up. Also, a much smaller Prius, and so on.

And... a Prius plug-in. A plug-in being the only kind of electric I'd own if I was in North America. A Leaf is a nice car, but even 100 miles is a range limitation unless it's a second car. But a Volt or a Plug-In Prius will get you 80-150 mpg and up.

And the PIPrius is a piece of real engineering genius, in that Toyota realized they only needed to marginally expand the battery - not add whole vast arrays (that is, it only adds 4 kwh, not 16 kwh in the Volt or 40 kwh in all-electrics), add a plug for people, tell them to top it up nightly, in 1-3 hours with a regular outlet, and they'll go from 40-50 mpg in a regular Prius to 80-100 mpg in a Plug-In Prius. But with no range limitations, no grand interior redesigns, no special chargers required, nothing. IT'S THAT SIMPLE. 100 MPG.

And the cost is expected to start at a $3-$5,000 premium to the Prius, but by 2015, Toyota's VP's say they want the PIPrius to be at NO premium to the regular models. In short, they'll take the technological and scale benefits, and use them to improve the ca's mileage - rather than drop the price.

So Toyota will have a range of Prius's... from the smallest starting at under $20,000, to people-carriers... all able to get 70-80-90-100 and more miles per gallon. At which point, gas prices, who cares? And all of it based on the hybrid technology, and congrats to those who bought early. ;-)

Me though? Oddly enough, I'm more like Donal. He bikes, I walk. Haven't ever owned a car (other than a 1/2 share in a used Civic back in 1990 or so.) I walk mostly, subways/tube, and when I need to go to rural areas, I rent. Works fine. I just happen to work on cars a lot. Maybe it helps, because I don't have any of the car-lover's twitches when it comes to certain models or engines or technologies or such. Strange fate though.

"Dr Fader, you ask a lotta

Donal — Thu, 19 May 2011 15:54:28 +0000

In reply to Doesn't the justification for

"Dr Fader, you ask a lotta questions ..." As explained in a previous post, I've used Edmunds numbers to compare costs. YMMV of course, but it's a starting point.

I hope you are right about technology because I'd rather bike behind a clean EV than a diesel or gasoline tailpipe. I've been following EV tech for quite a while though and have seen a lot of products hyped and not delivered - like the Tango. George Clooney looked great in the promo back in 2005, but Commuter Cars wanted a $10,000 deposit just to get on their waiting list. Hmm, they still do.

I'm excited that the Leaf is out there, but over-selling it won't help the cause.

I was just reading claims about a hybrid that supposedly saves money compared to it's non-hybrid version: The GMC Sierra Hybrid.

Of course, 22 mpg may still seem profligate to your average Toyota Prius driver. And it takes careful explanation to make the case that a truck this big helps cut US oil imports.

But let’s look at the math. GM says the hybrid powertrain adds roughly $3,000 to a comparable non-hybrid pickup, which returns just 14 mpg / 20 mpg. Racking up 10,000 miles a year, split equally between city and highway travel, the hybrid system saves about 140 gallons of gasoline annually. That’s more fuel than you would save by jumping from a Toyota Camry to a Camry Hybrid—although not quite as big a savings as switching from that conventional Camry to a Prius.

Currently, buyers are eligible for a $2,200 federal tax credit. That means the payback, using $2/gallon gasoline, is somewhere around four years—at least until GM's credits expire (as those for Toyota and Honda already have; Ford credits are all but gone too). Spending more time in stop-and-go traffic, or racking up higher mileage, cuts the payback time. And if gasoline should return to the $4/gallon levels of summer 2008, payback would speed up even further.

Sounds great, but on Edmunds, the hybrid Sierras list for $10,000 extra, not $3,000 and Edmunds gives the hybrid a TCO of $50,462 while a similar non-hybrid is $44,397. Is it unfair of me to point that out?

Doesn't the justification for

Peter Schwartz — Thu, 19 May 2011 14:54:25 +0000

In reply to I have two coworkers that

Doesn't the justification for the price depend on how long you keep your Prius? Or is the probable life of a car--say about 10-15 years--already factored into your statement?

In terms of "extra cost," I think that's hard to figure. For one thing, you'd need to find a true comparable, no? Is the Corolla or Camry comparable? Or the Tercel? At one level, they're all small cars with a lot of interior space, but they cost very different amounts.

But I know a woman with about three kids who replaced her van with a Prius and feels she fits everything she needs--kids, dog, sports equipment--into the latter. I really is roomy inside.

So, for her, she's comparing her van to a Prius. Her van cost more and got about 15 mpg and her Prius at least 40 mpg. If people are going to complain about the high price of gas, then this sort of comparison has got to be compelling, don't you think?

I think it's fine and good to be critical of specific attempts, as long as you're fair. And people should know what they are getting into. But it's something else to be critical of the conceptual effort to make electric cars work. If there are real reasons it won't work, fine. But if it's just a matter of their not "being there" yet, then that's something else.

Perhaps I have too much faith in technology, but it's hard to believe that the costs and performance of this technology won't follow the patterns charted by other technologies: costs-down; performance-up. And pretty darn quickly.

Truth is, if I had more spare money, I'd probably offer myself up as an early Leaf adopter just to help the effort along. I was offered a free test drive, but couldn't make the date.

As far as the cost of a

Peter Schwartz — Thu, 19 May 2011 12:48:12 +0000

In reply to Keeping the Leaf Going - All 3 Days

As far as the cost of a Prius, ours was the all-in model and cost about 26,000 but with some rebates. Lesser models cost less. That doesn't strike me as too bad, and I'm not wealthy. But I guess it's all relative.

I have two coworkers that

Donal — Thu, 19 May 2011 12:46:11 +0000

In reply to Hey Quinn, it seems like you

I have two coworkers that love their Priuses and I think they are technically very successful. I've never trashed the Prius, but I have observed that hybrids do not actually justify their extra cost with gas savings, though the Prius came about as close as any hybrid. The Japanese earthquake/tsunami/nuclear failure has unfortunately pushed prices up.

Nissan claims between 90 and 120 mile range, which seems practical to me, but cold weather, heaters and even headlamps can reduce the range. I was a big fan of the EV-1, and I'm a fan of alternative vehicles in general, but I think people should know what they're getting into. So rather than be a cheerleader, I write critically about them.

Hey Quinn, it seems like you

Peter Schwartz — Thu, 19 May 2011 12:11:14 +0000

In reply to It's nice the way you've

Hey Quinn, it seems like you have some past experience with Donal-:) I don't, and don't know much about the technology, so I'll just make a couple/few points:

• I've owned a Prius since 2004. Works like a champ in every way. So if Donal trashed them before, he's turned out to be incorrect. Here in Arlington, every other vehicle is a Prius and the county runs Priuses for official business. Never had a problem with ours with the exception that Jiffy Lube doesn't yet have the tools to replace some of the fluids.

• I'm not sure you're right about the first two paragraphs, though I'd have to do some textual analysis to find out for sure-:) In general, they seemed to follow. He's calling into question the current state of the art of batteries for FULL electric cars. I've been considering a Leaf, but mostly for my in-town errands only. Nissan itself says the range is only, what? can't remember, but it's less than the Volt's 40 miles. So once you reach that limit, what do you do? Even if you can find a place to plug in, you still have to wait at least one hour and probably longer. This fact would appear to limit the car's usefulness THUS FAR. The Volt, however, can go something like 400 miles, but it's really a hybrid, yes? So can my Prius.

• All this said, it's hard to believe that battery technology won't dramatically improve quickly if we put the money into it and hard to believe that we won't begin to see charging stations all over the place as Volts and Leaves become ubiquitous. Also, plug in Priuses. And I'm sure they'll find a way to cut down on charging times. Smart roads, as A-Man notes, would be very cool. Read about a project on using glass--imbedded with all kinds of networks--for this purpose.

Donal does seem to be a bit "down" on the whole idea of electric car power, and it's hard to see why. So I agree with you there.

It's nice the way you've

quinn esq — Thu, 19 May 2011 02:41:49 +0000

In reply to Keeping the Leaf Going - All 3 Days

It's nice the way you've kindof built up a theme here, what with trashing hybrids... and plug-ins... and electric vehicles... But I like it better when you mix it up with a bit of human bashing. so if I can put in a request, how about: Smear Assange, Bash EVs, Tennis Chick... Bash Hybrids, Smear Assange, Tennis Chick?

I mean, far be it from me to complain about how your initial paragraphs have absolutely no connection to the review that follows... Or ask how you manage to magically find the bad reviews for hybrids and electrics when in fact, the Volt and the Leaf have just won a raft of auto awards... Or the way you trot out some old dog anecdote about a local car-lot or how batteries work to knock down real-world data - but hey! It's your blog!

In fact, I've come to enjoy blogs posing as providing some sort of technical information, when in fact, they're sloppy, wrong, and basically driven by "gut feels" that amount to you saying stuff you can't really be bothered to research.

I've actually turned it into a bit of a game! It's like Where's Waldo.... when there's dozens of Waldo's in each picture!

1. You know your bitching about batteries? Well, you're one of those guys who did that about hybrid batteries too, right? And TADA! They've been running, like tops, with extraordinarily good performance, for a decade now. Thousands upon thousands of Prius's, passing 100,000 and 150,000 and 200,000 miles and the batteries? Ticking like gems. But you never bothered going back to correct your WRONG view, you've just... carried it on!

HI WALDO!

2. Also, with modern electric vehicles and plug-ins, how you recharge them is actually... pretty much controlled by the software. That is, they don't LET you deplete them below a certain level, or fill them past a certain point.

HI WALDO!

3. As for optimizing batteries, amazing, but the car companies learned that you could actually have some power characteristics and some energy characteristics, in the same battery!

HI WALDO!

4. Resale value. Amazing thing, but those Prius's actually have enormous resale value. Batteries and all!

HI WALDO!

5. As for leasing the battery, it's a great idea. Odd, but some of the companies are offering great leasing deals not just on the battery... but on the whole car.

HI WALDO!

I think I'd like some Assange next. Perhaps we could hear some more about dissension in the Wikileaks camp... While completely ignoring the positive impacts their reports have had on recent events in the Middle East. I mean, what would you rather read about?? BROKEN CONDOMS.... or... Arab Spring!

Hell, maybe you could get Seaton in and guest-blog as a two-some, condoms and batteries, there have to be some great one-liners in that eh?

HI WALDO!

The battery/range problem is

cmaukonen — Thu, 19 May 2011 02:16:10 +0000

In reply to Keeping the Leaf Going - All 3 Days

The battery/range problem is what killed off the electric car originally. Even though it was quieter and more reliable than the first gas powered cars at the time.

There is work being done using ultra capacitors and different variations on the lithium cell but until the cost factor comes down on either of these, they will be too expensive for most people. And then there is the research on having inductive charging embedded in the highways to keep the batteries charged. But this would require the efficiency of such a system to be fairly hight to be practical. The inverse squared law comes up here with this approach.

This leaves the electric car really only useful for short commutes.

So for me it is a non-starter.