dagblog - Comments for "obama has his ducks in a row for 2012"

http://www.economicpopulist.o

artappraiser — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 14:29:02 +0000

In reply to Yes, we all know the economy

http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/retail-sales-july-2011

In 2008 the broad economy

Oxy Mora — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 18:14:06 +0000

In reply to I'm not disputing folks with

In 2008 the broad economy tanked due to a credit crunch. Small businesses were hurt by global events. Sales decline, banks call in loans, customers take longer to pay--a triple whammy. One of my clients is a division a large international. Monthly billings $10K. They emailed me, oh, we're extending terms from 30 to 60 days. Bingo. I just loaned a $1B company ten thousand dollars. That's real. I was concerned that a miscalculation in the debt fight might cause a repeat of 2008 and worse, causing the business to fail through no fault of my own. When the deal ceiling was raised I thought this level threat had been avoided. I wasn't as fearful at the personal level, but in my case it's difficult to separate the two.

I think the division of wealth in this country is grotesque. I count myself in the upper middle class, no more. But, honestly, right now I would be happy to see the Affluent spend their butts off. For the moment anyhow it would lift a lot of small boats. Long term we need a reformer in the White House. Obama has made a ton of mistakes, of which Summers and Geithner were the worst ones. I can't see abandoning ship at this point in the game.

Following 2008 businesses have been hoarding cash and cautious about building inventories. If they are building inventories now they are seeing something real in the pipeline. If they keep doing this for a few months, it's more than a trend. Still I think Lavorgna is way too far out front.

Businesses have had a sweet spot in earnings for the reason that they are slow to bring back workers, working folks overtime. I didn't have any new hires this year but sales have been up, knock on wood, my folks are getting more overtime which they love, and total payroll is up. As things improve you have to hire new people unless you want to lose sales and customers. It could very well be that companies are on the cusp of hiring as we speak. I bought new equipment recently ahead of my needs because the 100% write-off is too hard to pass up; unless everything tanks, it is found money.

I know what it feels like to be up shite creek in one's fifties. It's debilitating, humiliating. Somehow I picked myself up, started a company, lived in the industrial unit where I parked the trucks and bootstrapped it, begging, borrowing, stealing and running up credit cards till I thought there was no way in hell they could be paid off. One just has to get out there and keep trying. It's something like rock climbing. You can't go any further but if you don't you're dead.

One vignette about that period. I was singing in a community chorus when some butt head suggested we all needed to get tuxedoes, which shot down the blue blazer I had bought at Salvation Army for about $5. I went to a thrift store and found a $50 used tux. It was blue serge, weighed about 20 lbs and had lapels like the flaps on a 747. When I tried on the trousers so help me to God I found a folded up twenty dollar bill. I went up front, told the guy I was down on my luck and would give him $25 for it. He hemmed and hawed and said o.k. I gave him the folded $20 and dug five ones out of my wallet.

And that's about how I started a business.

Thanks for that great blog.

Oxy Mora — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 12:42:12 +0000

In reply to I'm not disputing folks with

Thanks for that great blog. Gotta take the rescue huntin' dog out to the country to run her rear end off cause she's driving me nuts.

Later. Existential fear of economy tanking. And how I went negative net worth in my 50's doing art and had to start a company because no one hires an ex-executive in their 50's.

General Electric General

Resistance — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 11:38:47 +0000

In reply to obama has his ducks in a row for 2012

General Electric

General Electric is planning to move its 115-year-old X-ray division from Waukesha, Wis., to Beijing. In addition to moving the headquarters, the company will invest $2 billion in China

and train more than 65 engineers and create six research centers.

This is the same GE that made $5.1 billion in the United States last year, but paid no taxes-the same company that employs more people overseas than it does in the united States.

So let me get this straight.

President Obama appointed GE Chairman Jeff Immelt to head his commission on job creation (job czar). Immelt is supposed to help create jobs.

I guess the President forgot to tell him in which country he was supposed to be creating those jobs.

This email was sent to me, if it's true .........WTF?

The thinker Obama has it all

Resistance — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 11:26:12 +0000

In reply to obama has his ducks in a row for 2012

The thinker Obama has it all figured out.

Obama's first term

First you run a doom and gloom scenario, allow the country to go to the deepest depths of despair. Much like our Grandparents who were in the depression and then faced with the antics of Hitler, trying to rule the world. Of course blame it all on the previous administration or the plan doesn't work.

You can't be the President blamed for the doom and gloom; then be declared the savior.

Everyone needed to sacrifice, it was rough time folks.

Obama's 2nd term

The War is over, Pent up demand, propels the Nation into the greatest boom period since after the War.

Obama and company will be remembered as the President during the greatest boom period since the Post World War 2 period.

How many peoples fortunes were sacrificed, so we could have a rebirth?

Jubilation; the War on the middle class will be over; lets rebuild on the ashes.

The States Right movement

Resistance — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 10:58:56 +0000

In reply to Wasn't Obama the guy who was

The States Right movement will love Obama.

Where was the Federal Government?

I'm not disputing folks with

kgb999 — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 10:12:47 +0000

In reply to About the scared consumer

I'm not disputing folks with discretionary income are spending money entirely. But I would argue that your hesitance to spend was mostly over concerns that specific negative outcomes might impact your *personal finances* in such a way that the current economic woes would expand to place you in financial distress individually. The "economy" is an abstract, nobody makes a decision based on "the economy." They decide based on *their* economy. If the wider economy falters in such a way you can be reasonably sure it doesn't negatively impact you, of course you will still spend.

But it is difficult to ignore that with every day, that group seemingly includes less and less people. If you look at Arti's comment below, the thing about the factoids highlighted is that, for the most part, they can be attributed to an upper class in America that has a shit-ton of money to spend on baubles and firehouse-sale asset raids during this period of profiting from the economic distress experienced by a great number of Americans (distress, not ironically, caused directly by the exact people who have profited from it most, BTW). Which beings up an interesting observation; those who have developed careers that involve servicing the rich are probably one of the few sectors outside of the mega-money owners themselves doing quite well. However, imagining that equals fixing the economy is a delightfully Randian conclusion.

Do you think if you were in a situation where your 401k had been wiped out in '08, now out of career work stuck in some minimum wage job (if lucky) and looking at retirement age a few years down the road ... you would feel the same confidence about your future personal economy that mentally allows you to spend in the wake of this debt deal that you feel in your current personal reality? Or, less dramatically, simply lost your pension and now doing 55s on salary (same salary that was paid for 40s before the downsize). In this context, I think a germane question is how typical your situation is as an indicator of the relative improvement in outlook for the millions and millions of Americans who have experienced or are on the edge of economic distress as this depression/recovery/recession/othermeaninglesssound we currently face progresses apace.

My state was at around 20% of the population on food assistance last I checked (a few months back) ... and the number has been growing. I see there are two Americas at this point. I'm entirely glad you inhabit the one that isn't stuck in hell right now. Personally, I'm straddling the abyss somewhat - but still feel quite fortunate. Any way you slice it, 395,000 new jobless claims is an increase in economic suffering for a ton of people - that number is greater than the number of inhabitants in most American cities (it's 10 Coeur d'Alenes for example) - in a single week. That's apparently happening every week.

While everything you say about B-School 101 seems right to me (not having actually taken B-School 101 not withstanding), I notice you don't address the concept of information and what could happen, say, if a business decided to put scarce capital into filling a pipeline going nowhere because folks in charge of assessing assess that the means of lying about the economy is justified by the ends of being reelected. We could be looking at a built-up deferred necessities purchases (pet care counts) combined with a high-end shopping spree. If there aren't any new jobs and no other identifiable source of sustained infusion of money into the working class, I simply don't see money for the working class to spend on a sustained basis. Even lucre is subject to the laws of thermodynamics ... you can't go over unity and get something from nothing (well, it is notable, and seemingly unmentioned, that low-grade counterfeit bills are flowing like water right now ... but that doesn't really count). We really could end up with sizable unsold inventory depending on what it is you are seeing scale production increases in.

Also. Be wary of folks flogging "improved" aggregate retail numbers that include skyrocketing fuel prices in the assessment. Masquerading that number as retail allows a factor that acts as a drain on every American family's personal economy to be absurdly construed as a positive contributor to an entirely different business sector. Fuel costs rob from discretionary spending that might otherwise bolster retail.

Personally, I have to throw my lot in with the worker, and they are hurting. Badly. As a small businessman and entrepreneur, I *am* an American worker. We sustain each other - it is a symbiosis. It is very clear that if the broader work force falls, we all fall. It bothers me how much it seems Democrats really have decided the thing to do right now is lie about the distress so many workers are under to try and help political prospects instead of joining the effort to demand an aggressive agenda for creating an improved situation for all of us. If that really is the way it turns out, I will be utterly ashamed that I worked to help the party acquire a position to do this to your fellow countrymen. A bad politician is one thing ... embracing dishonesty and celebrating it as a party is quite another.

That said, I really respect your views in general regarding business. If your observations truly lead you to think we're on the cusp of some miraculous recovery, I totally think you are crazy, but damn I really hope you are accurately seeing something I don't.

(now THAT'S long winded, :-)

I thought Buffet's comment

Oxy Mora — Sat, 13 Aug 2011 18:10:34 +0000

In reply to Greetings from meatspace,

I thought Buffet's comment was relevant. What's driving business even though the mood of the public seems to indicate otherwise?The consumer confidence report was down a bunch. I don't know, maybe people are pissed off but they still have pent up demand and will keep spending. I can't explain the uptick, but it's there. Like it or not, the Affluent have a lopsided effect on total spending, total spending being 70% of the economy.

From Obama's point of view the more the opposition carps, especially in the sense of betting against America, the more he may be able to boil them in it when it really counts, just before the election.

Thanks again.

I cross referenced it several

Oxy Mora — Sat, 13 Aug 2011 17:39:39 +0000

In reply to Obama has his ducks in the

I cross referenced it several times thinking it was a hoax. If we are anywhere near 8% by the end of 2011 I will be amazed.

He mentions cap ex spending. It's foolish to so extend my personal behavior but maybe some don't realize the tremendous incentive accelerated depreciation is. In my small company I decided to buy a new service truck last month. I'm ahead of the curve in terms of my needs. But that 100% deduction is as good as cash in my pocket. And I may do the same next year when it will be 50%. So two great tax deductions, one in 2011 and one in 2012. Obviously I would have gotten the tax deduction over 4 years in any case but the accelerated depreciation means I have the cash now and can hang on to it or reinvest in the business as required.

Also, I mentioned somewhere here the different way tax reform cuts for a small business vs. a mega corporation. Since small businesses don't get the loop holes big ones do, a tax rate reduction would help those who are actually in position to generate jobs while punishing those who generate jobs overseas. So I think tax reform is stimulative.

About messaging, if it's Perry, which unless Jeb jumps in I think it will be, a world of opportunity opens.

I was only trying to explain

Oxy Mora — Sat, 13 Aug 2011 17:19:10 +0000

In reply to But Obama has to play the

I was only trying to explain something to Decider in a way he could understand--given his utter lack of moral integrity.