ECRI has a good track record;

artappraiser — Sat, 08 Oct 2011 22:30:40 +0000

ECRI has a good track record; are they right this time? See

An Ugly Forecast That’s Been Right Before

artappraiser — Sat, 01 Oct 2011 00:20:39 +0000

It's easy to play dueling banjoes with this topic:

Buffett Says US Recession Unlikely
9/30/2011 6:38 PM ET

I particularly like this pairing:

Oil above $82 as recession worries fade for now
By Pamela Sampson
AP Business Writer / September 30, 2011

U.S. Recession Risk Rises on April Oil Price Jump: Chart of Day
By Ilan Kolet and Caroline Alexander - Sep 30, 2011 6:00 AM ET

Conclusion: no one knows for sure.