dagblog - Comments for "Daniel Yergin Gets Tight"

The Oil Drum has a good post

Donal — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 14:46:07 +0000

The Oil Drum has a good post comparing the Bakken play to the California and Klondike gold rushes.

The Bakken Boom - A Modern-Day Gold Rush

The Bakken boom has inspired a number of prominent commentators to resurrect the energy independence meme. Daniel Yergin was first at bat, asserting in an essay published by The Wall Street Journal that rising prices and emerging technologies (especially hydraulic fracturing) will significantly drive up world liquid fuels production over the coming decade(s). Ultimately, Mr. Yergin argues that tight supplies lead to high fuel prices, and high fuel prices will bring previously inaccessible oil to the market. The trouble with this line of thinking is that high prices aren’t merely a symptom of the supply problem; high prices are the problem.

After Mr. Yergin stole first base through this apparently convincing display of contortionist logic, the next up to bat was Ed Crooks who recently penned an analysis piece for the Financial Times. In this piece, Mr. Crooks declares that “the growth in U.S. and Canadian production from new sources, coupled with curbs on demand as a result of more efficient use of fuel, is creating a realistic possibility that North America will be able to declare oil independence.”

Mr. Crooks thus ‘balances’ rising production from shale oil and Canadian tar sands against declining consumption, which he mistakenly chalks up to efficiency gains rather than the deleterious effects of the greatest recession since the Great Depression. Beyond this obvious blunder, Mr. Crooks manages an even greater and far more common gaffe by neglecting to integrate decline rates of mature fields into his analysis.

But in a game where the media is the referee and the public doesn’t know the rules, Mr. Crooks manages to get on base by knocking a foul ball into the bleachers. With Yergin on second and Crooks on first, Edward Luce steps up to plate and takes a swat at the energy independence meme, directing the ‘greens’ to look away as “America is entering a new age of plenty”. And while the greens looked away, Mr. Luce took a cheap shot at clean energy through an attack on the federal government’s support for the now bankrupt solar panel manufacturer, Solyndra. Luce thus willingly employs the logical fallacy of hasty generalization to sway his audience. Of course the Solyndra bankruptcy is no more generalizable to the solar energy industry than BP’s Macondo oil spill is to all offshore oil production, but in a game of marketing one-upmanship one should not expect a balanced and rigorous evaluation of the possibilities.

Now, that's funny. I

Donal — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 14:33:11 +0000

In reply to Daniel Yergin Gets Tight

Now, that's funny. I mentioned Val Kilmer, and this post showed up in ecelebritynews.

http://www.ecelebritynews.net/movies/valkilmer.php

Maybe I should always slip Jennifer Aniston, LiLo or Brangelina into my posts. Or Pippa Middleton. What does Pippa think about fracking?

It is wonderful to find a

Donal — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 13:00:26 +0000

In reply to Brian Williams did a piece on

It is wonderful to find a job, and even PO-aware economist James Hamilton seems to be all for the Keystone Gas pipeline because of all the jobs it will create. I'm not sure whether LTO fracking is any different than the NGas fracking. Most industry disturbs nature, and oil industry types claim that they have been doing this sort of thing for years, and that despite the numerous oil spills, gas flaring, etc. nature will rebound.

You're looking at this wrong,

Verified Atheist — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 00:33:13 +0000

In reply to Daniel Yergin Gets Tight

You're looking at this wrong, Donal. It's a win-win-win. First, we'll create jobs for those doing the fracking. Next, we'll create jobs for lawyers. Finally, we'll create jobs for those doing the cleaning up!

Brian Williams did a piece on

mageduley — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 22:05:20 +0000

In reply to Daniel Yergin Gets Tight

Brian Williams did a piece on this topic as well. The piece makes it sound like a wonderful boon to the economy. How is this different than the "fracking" for natural gas that ruins the drinking water?