dagblog - Comments for "Don't Google The Santorum Surge"

I thought a surge of santorum

jollyroger — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 07:43:07 +0000

In reply to Yeah, pretty much my take on

I thought a surge of santorum was what tumbles onto the sheets after sphincter relaxation...no?..carry on, then

Another good point, and quite

tmccarthy0 — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 17:11:52 +0000

In reply to One thing to keep in mind

Another good point, and quite true as well.

One thing to keep in mind

Elusive Trope — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 16:50:24 +0000

In reply to I think you are correct on

One thing to keep in mind that when Newt surged in places like Iowa, there was a corresponding surge on a national level. Santorum has yet to show such a corresponding surge yet. He is at 4%, his highwater mark on the gallup poll. He ticked up a percentage point, and since it a five day rolling poll, if there is any kind of national surge for him, we should see another uptick today.

I think you are correct on

tmccarthy0 — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 16:30:38 +0000

In reply to BTW I think A-Man called this

I think you are correct on the Oxy, I just wonder how long it will last.

BTW I think A-Man called this

Oxy Mora — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 15:45:36 +0000

In reply to You are probably right Oxy,

BTW I think A-Man called this Santorum surge as a possibility about a week ago.

Santorum seems to be

Elusive Trope — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 15:29:52 +0000

In reply to I honestly don't think she is

Santorum seems to be benefiting from the conservative Christians in Iowa freaking out that their votes are going to be splintered so as to give Mitt or Paul the victory. (They're not thrilled about Ronny as well). Santorum seems to be the one that a number of those in grassroot networks have decided to get behind. Huck's Army has endorsed him for example.

The tea party folks (which overlap with the conservative Christian wing) has adopted Newt for the time being, which is what has allowed him to stop his national plummet in the polls (IMHO).

NH will only be interesting as to whether it will end the run for Perry, Huntsman and Bachmann (she might be toast after Iowa).

Santorum does bring up for an interesting race in SC - which is a winner take all contest, although it has lost have of its delegates. Last time people looked Newt was running strong there. But Santorum could appeal to the Christian right in that state. With Bachmann and Huntsman and even Perry out of the race by then, the question would be whether Santorum and Newt split the votes and hand Mitt the state.

If either Newt or Santorum somehow pull off a SC vote, Florida will decide whether it becomes a long slog or Mitt can begin his "inevitable" push for the nomination. Paul and Santorum (with a strong showing in Iowa) will go all the way to the Convention. A SC win will probably keep Newt all the way to Tampa, too. He knows there is just too much AntiEstablishment (and thus AntiMitt) sentiment out there. Both Santorum and Newt see book sales and media stardom along the lines of Palin, even if Mitt gets the eventual nomination.

You are probably right Oxy,

tmccarthy0 — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 15:14:59 +0000

In reply to I honestly don't think she is

You are probably right Oxy, this Santorum Surge is happening at the right time, he isn't peaking too early. He hasn't made huge mistakes in debates or when speaking to the Press, and although he has some baggage, he doesn't have the baggage of a Newt or a Paul, which works in his favor. He is Catholic, but he isn't LDS, and the TeaFolks seem to now believe that at least Catholics aren't a cult?? err or something???

And SC is important, much more so than the Iowa Caucuses. I just think there is way too much negative stuff out there about Newt for him to ever be the nominee, but I could be completely wrong on that as well.

Ultimately, her power to

Elusive Trope — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 15:08:46 +0000

In reply to Oooh interesting thought

Ultimately, her power to command the media and, thus, money is based on the perceived vastness of her following. Her first reality show was a major blow to that. A Huntsman or Bachmann-like outcome in a primary would put an end to the speculation that her time has come and gone. Whatever she does, it will be to position herself as kingmaker within the Party. I don't see how she can pull that off, but as you say one never knows.

If she just wants the headlines, my suggestion to her would be to join the Occupy movement. That would get people talking about her.

I honestly don't think she is

Oxy Mora — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 15:04:10 +0000

In reply to Here is my question, do you

I honestly don't think she is a factor.

As for Rick Santorum, I think it depends on his showing in Iowa. He was apparently on the Today show and that brings to mind momentum, timing and the role the media play in creating the story of the day---all of which puts Santorum in a favorable spot right now. In one poll it looks like Santorum siphoned off some Gingrich support and if that's a trend it gets real interesting.

Again, we're all looking at this from the perspective of the candidates. The perspective from the Tea Party is where the story is, imo. The various tea components are on a mission to take down the establishment wing, so who are the funders, what's the mix of evangelicals and deficit hawks, particularly in S.C.what will be the Iowa results and how will they, tea, react.

I want to make it perfectly clear that I'm not yet ruling our Gingrich even though his Intrade is about 4%.

Oooh interesting thought

tmccarthy0 — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 15:00:12 +0000

In reply to A number of deadlines have

Oooh interesting thought Trope. One never knows with that woman.