dagblog - Comments for "Israel Jumps the Shark, Splits the Baby"

Mofaz is gone. Livni likely

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 18 Jul 2012 08:18:57 +0000

Mofaz is gone. Livni likely is permanently wounded - she couldn't pull a government together when given a chance. So Olmert is probably their horse to ride - though still facing one more corruption charge until Fall, I believe.

The early elections were originally for September. I don't think there's any way Netanyahu can call elections before January roughly, more likely February (don't think anyone will be thrilled with elections in holiday season, though could be wrong)

But it is a question whether Kadima can look any stronger after this pretty weak effort.

Who knows - I don't give a shit about Israeli politics except that they don't drive down the whole Middle East... something a few of them seem intent on doing.

Kadima has, as you say,

acanuck — Wed, 18 Jul 2012 07:17:55 +0000

In reply to Though elections would be

Kadima has, as you say, "potentially" time to organize. But the party took a gamble replacing Tzipi Livni with Shaul Mofaz, who took the party into Netanyahu's coalition in exchange for promises of conscription reform and a renewed peace initiative. When push came to shove, Netanyahu sided instead with his original ultra-Orthodox partners.

So Mofaz's strategy has failed, just as party ex-leader Ehud Olmert has beaten the most serious corruption charges against him. Olmert sounds like a man who wants his old job back; if so, Kadima is going to be torn apart by infighting at the top while it should be fighting Likud. If I were Netanyahu, I'd want a snap election. If Likud gains seats, Kadima is still available as potential coalition partner, but on much better terms.

Also, since Israel apparently

jollyroger — Wed, 18 Jul 2012 07:07:47 +0000

In reply to It's the one-state solution.

Also, since Israel apparently wants to reverse partition, everybody gets the right of return....don't they?

It's the one-state solution.

jollyroger — Wed, 18 Jul 2012 07:00:27 +0000

In reply to Israel Jumps the Shark, Splits the Baby

It's the one-state solution. No worries mate. The world knows how to boycott, divest, and sanction, and Israel knows how to spell apartheid in Hebrew. Let them drop the charade already, and we will show them what isolation looks like. Divest Now! (fuck Peace Now, that's dead.) We welcome The United Semitic Peoples' Kemalist Republic. One Semite, one vote. One state, no fuckin' Yahwists.

Though elections would be

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 18 Jul 2012 06:17:58 +0000

In reply to Kadima today left Netanyahu's

Though elections would be later than the original September, so potentially Kadima has time to organize.

However why Netanyahu needs to call early elections isn't clear to me - he can still implement Levy in principle, he has support for his major freakout over Iran, he'll have an 8-seat majority in Knesset to pass anything else, and he didn't seem to care about Palestinian peace, which is the only place where a super-majority seemed needed.

Kadima today left Netanyahu's

acanuck — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 23:23:24 +0000

In reply to Israel Jumps the Shark, Splits the Baby

Kadima today left Netanyahu's "grand coalition" -- not over the Levy Report, but because of the PM's continued kowtowing to the ultra-Orthodox over their exemption from military service. Netanyahu still has a Knesset majority, but it's now totally dependent on those far-right religious and settler parties. That increases the pressure on him to adopt Levy to keep his coalition in power. But endorsing the report could fuel support for Kadima, if not for parties to its left. Netanyahu may opt to call early elections without taking a decision on Levy, though that also carries a risk. Quite a dilemma!

The only hope is if it causes

Anonymous pp — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 22:45:12 +0000

In reply to A positive note to start:

The only hope is if it causes most to recoil in horror. Yes, the Levy Report is the status quo+, just enough to take the lipstick off the pig. A wall that's reallyy an expansion corridor. A promise of negotiation predicated on accepting you have no claims. I miss Ariel Sharon - son of a bitch that he was, there seemed always a core sense about him. Netanyahu? A thoroughly craven political creature. Don't know what Peres does anymore except as walking corpse reminder of what was once a peace process. Cynicism rules. Almost no press comments on Hillary's visit - the right wingers have won, facts on the ground.

A positive note to start:

acanuck — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 21:51:14 +0000

In reply to Israel Jumps the Shark, Splits the Baby

A positive note to start: anything that causes both Bruce and Peracles to recoil in horror is an achievement. That's it for the positive stuff.

I haven't found the full 89-page report in English, just its conclusions and recommendations:

http://www.pmo.gov.il/NR/rdonlyres/42C25B01-428B-40FC-8A6B-E9B1F5315D74/...

In laying out a future legal regime for the West Bank, those eight pages never use the word "Palestinian." But Levy's mandate was not to sort out conflicting rights; it was to find a way to legalize settler outposts. He's done that more thoroughly than even Netanyahu may have hoped.

Lots of Israelis, like Levy and his panel, want outright annexation of the West Bank -- sorry, Judea and Samaria. Netanyahu may have the same long-term dream, but he knows the timing is not ripe. There's not just the question of international law and international relations; adoption of the Levy Report would also contradict pesky precedents set by rulings of the Israeli Supreme Court and past declarations by virtually all Israeli governments. His solution may well be to duck taking any position on the report's legal underpinnings, but simply start implementing its proposals as if they were government policy.

The New York Times and the U.S. Jewish leaders who have denounced the report are of course right about its impact on Israel's image. I tend to agree with the Daily Beast's Peter Beinart, however:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/07/13/levy-is-right.html

The Levy Report has done a service by calling a spade a spade. This is where Israel is heading, and these rationalizations are at the heart of 21st century Zionism. Can this disastrous course be reversed? There's not much of an internal dynamic against it, is there? Polls show not enough Israelis are really concerned about the drift toward a perpetual garrison state. Much less about the generations-long oppression of a few million people defined, if thought about at all, as "the other."

Peracles muses about Kadima regrouping as an opposition party. It's not going to happen. And hetherw the Levy Report is formally adopted or formally rejected isn't really important. Its release marks a crossroads, and I'm afraid Israel will merrily continue on the familiar, well-worn path it has blindly chosen.

Thanks. It's tossed a stink

PeraclesPlease — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 19:27:51 +0000

In reply to This Levy report is

Thanks. It's tossed a stink bomb in for anyone who actually wanted to resolve things - how to get the Palestinians back to the table when the gov has just essentially declared they've always owned everything anyway, but thanks for playing?

And they're already spinning the US objections to be "they agree with us, they're just tossing some token objections up that don't change anything". Which might be true for all I know.

I guess the good thing is elections are delayed long enough for Olmert or others to regroup. The bad thing about that is this decision will be carried out as facts on the ground until then.

This Levy report is

Bruce Levine — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 19:10:01 +0000

In reply to Israel Jumps the Shark, Splits the Baby

This Levy report is absolutely outrageous PP; I could not agree more. And it obfuscates the real issues in any event, which are the wisdom and morality of unfettered settlement growth; the legalities are just mush. Nice piece.