dagblog - Comments for "Egypt: Mursi Condemns Syrian Regime, Warns Iran"

Thank you for your pedantic

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 21 Sep 2012 09:58:17 +0000

In reply to I think more to the contrary,

Thank you for your pedantic reminder - I really had no idea countries had their own governments and own interests. How charming and curious - why would they bother?

So presumably you're aware that Hillary met with Mursi in mid-July, that Mursi is balancing an image with Salafists that he's just another Mubarak (Hillary already arranged Mubarak's 2nd to take over), while trying to assure Obama he's game with keeping peace with Israel and putting down the embassy protests so he can keep that US Congressional cash coming - $1.5 billion a year or whatever.

So while there are sympathies for Syrian protests, Mursi's Arab Quintet to solve this includes Iran, which is a non-starter for the US. It just so happened that Saudi didn't show up for the last meeting, and Turkey is fairly reliably in our corner, so my guess - a guess, mind you - is that Mursi's Quintet is going nowhere, and he's sending out signals to make the best of it - show he's hard with Iran, appease the US, appease the supporters of Syrian revolution by pressuring Assad, while not being seen as too much in the pocket of Obama.

You think with the influence that Netanyahu has in the region, that a "let's be friends" overture with Iran with no subtexts is going to be welcome? Who would it please, and who would it piss off? Saudi has its own grievances with Iran - another minus for Mursi. Unless it buys brownie points for him, why bother?

You might imagine Mursi doesn't want to be another Malaki or Karzai, would rather be a an Abdel Nasser, but after 30+ years of puppetdom, that's not going to happen. So he'll thread his internal threats and external pressures the best he can. And the militias in neighboring Libya are unwelcome - a reminder that a more serious opposition can arise, even though I think Egypt's military is more organized and 1st rate than Libya's.

I think more to the contrary,

artappraiser — Fri, 21 Sep 2012 06:56:20 +0000

In reply to It might be atonement for not

I think more to the contrary, that like the writer says, this current story is probably domestic political considerations. Overall, there is no love lost for Persia in Egypt. And the popular news media in Egypt is fanning flames over what's happening in Syria.

I also suspect Mursi's restoring diplomatic relations with Iran was quite formal diplomacy, not in the vein of "let's be friends," but just making the announcement that regional activity is going to be handled differently now, making it a new day, showing he's in control and a player.

I think it's always important to keep in mind that things like this aren't always about us; in the region the leaders are not always thinking first thing about everything they do: "now will the US like this or not? " and choosing accordingly whether they want to piss the US off or please the US. Approaching news of the region that way has so far served me well. They do have other considerations to deal with. I.E., Saudi Arabia and Iran meet all the time at like OPEC, certainly no love lost there, not best buds.

It might be atonement for not

PeraclesPlease — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 05:58:04 +0000

In reply to Egypt: Mursi Condemns Syrian Regime, Warns Iran

It might be atonement for not stopping embassy protests. Obama smacks him down as "not an ally, not an enemy". Gotta show he's still on the bus?