Interesting article, thanks.

Michael Wolraich — Sat, 06 Oct 2012 16:46:23 +0000

In reply to ‘‘The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense.’’

Nate Silver states one

artappraiser — Sat, 06 Oct 2012 16:03:51 +0000

In reply to ‘‘The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense.’’

Nate Silver states one complicating problem I never thought of before (in "Oct. 5: Day After Debate, Strong Swing State Polls for Romney"):

Polling trends can sometimes be odd in reaction to news events. One factor is that supporters of a particular candidate may be more enthusiastic, and more inclined to respond to surveys, after he gets a favorable development in the news cycle. The methodology that a pollster applies, particularly its likely voter model, may amplify or mitigate these effects.

I know I've turned down pollsters when busy but when I am excited over or interested at the time, I have made the time to submit to the poll .This gets ever more amplified, I imagine, by the constant internet news cycle, and possibly even whether you've just gotten an irritating email on-topic from Uncle Fred.

dagblog - Comments for "‘‘The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense.’’"

Interesting article, thanks.

Nate Silver states one