dagblog - Comments for "Exit Strategy?"

Recent Nation report on Mitt

NCD — Sat, 20 Oct 2012 01:23:52 +0000

In reply to An upside will be the vast

Recent Nation report on Mitt and Tagg Romney investments with Solamere, a firm employing former brokers involved with the massive $8 billion Stanford Ponzi scheme for which Allen Stanford is now in prison.

Hal, I like you a lot so I'm

AmericanDreamer — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 14:51:10 +0000

In reply to Exit Strategy?

Hal, I like you a lot so I'm just going to tell myself that you just forgot to categorize this post under the topic of "satire" or "humor" or "permitted-among-friends fretting", instead of "politics".

Because otherwise...sheesh, it reads to me like a caricature of the phenomenon of Democratic "it's over, we're cooked, stick a fork in us" defeatism. Those who characterize Democrats as typically like that exaggerate a good deal, based on my experiences anyway. In my experiences, yes, progressive activists do worry a good deal--but rarely in a way or to a degree that is self-paralyzing. And often the worrying is a driver of more in the way of commitment or activity, not less.

To quote Emily Littella -

HSG — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 00:00:20 +0000

In reply to New NBC poll. O up 8 in Iowa,

To quote Emily Littella - "never mind." To undermine further my argument in favor of pessimism, here's what Nate Silver wrote about the Gallup poll showing Romney up by 7:

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The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Wednesday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters. Mr. Romney’s advantage grew further, to seven points, when Gallup updated its numbers on Thursday afternoon.

The Gallup poll is accounted for in the forecast model, along with all other state and national surveys.

However, its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.

Because Gallup’s polls usually take large sample sizes, statistical variance alone probably cannot account these sorts of shifts. It seems to be an endemic issue with their methodology.

To be clear, I would not recommend that you literally just disregard the Gallup poll. You should consider it — but consider it in context.

The context is that its most recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national polls about the campaign. It’s much more likely that Gallup is wrong and everyone else is right than the other way around. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/

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Nate Silver and Articleman both have Obama ahead right now. Without any doubt, their opinions are more expert than mine. I hope desperately that they are right and that the President has a good day in Boca on Monday!

An upside will be the vast

NCD — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 22:44:19 +0000

In reply to Exit Strategy?

An upside will be the vast American right wing will not raise a peep of complaint if a GOP Iran War sends gas to $10+/gallon, if tax cuts with few spending cuts gives us stagflation on steroids and the deficit climbs nearer to $2 trillion/year, and finally, with the country virtually broke after 30 years of trickle down economics and tax cuts for the wealthy, the nation and most of the population are near broke, so there is little left for the snake oil swindlers to steal, except our lives, which they will try to take by cutting Medicare//Medicaid and ending ACA.

Mitt's sons may also have a harder time flimflamming the Teabircher palookas, although they will, as usual, be ripe for 'sure bet' double your money investment scams, they will have less money to play with in a Romney economy.

Tagg Romney seems to have ducked out of Solamere Advisors, which ThinkProgress reported has brokers who sold fraudulent CD's connected with the Stanford Ponzi scheme, Mitt had invested some millions in Solamere to get it going. Of course it's easier to get away with fraud when your Daddy is in the White House, or is VP, ask Neal Bush, or brother Jeb, Neal's bank failure, Silverado, cost the government over $1 billion, Jeb lobbied for a multi-hundred million dollar fraudulent Florida based Medicare scammer named Miguel Recarey in the 80's. Expect more of the same with Republicans back in power.

New NBC poll. O up 8 in Iowa,

Oxy Mora — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 22:36:17 +0000

In reply to Exit Strategy?

New NBC poll. O up 8 in Iowa, up 6 in Wisconsin.

I know, these polls are

Richard Day — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 22:12:48 +0000

In reply to Exit Strategy?

I know, these polls are scaring the hell out of me!

I am always caught in the sports paradigm.

I hate the Tigers, but I am watching them kick the hell out of the Yankees; I mean this is wonderful!

I wish my side to win and I am stuck in these prognostications and I am helpless, helpless, helpless!

Nineteen days.

I already went into this issue concerning reproduction. hahahahahaha

An Immodest Proposal actually. hahahahah

I know that when the repubs took over all of these legislatures and then doubled down with idiot or evil gubernatorialships that we would lose soooooo very much!

If Romney wins all will not be lost; but most of my ideal of America will be lost!

I am rambling....as usual.

GOTV - the ground game is

Elusive Trope — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 19:46:43 +0000

In reply to After the first debate they

GOTV - the ground game is where this is going to be won in places like NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, and VA.

A big question in my mind is just how many of those who still haven't made up their minds yet are going to stand in line for two hours to vote. Voter turn out overall in 2010 fell well below 50% from 2008. The side that can get their side to show up closer to the 2008 numbers than the 2010 numbers will win in those swing states.

After the first debate they

synchronicity — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 19:27:56 +0000

In reply to Exit Strategy?

After the first debate they said it would take at least three days to see affects in the polls. Listening to callers on Cspan which is totally random I do think that the president did not address many of Romney's economic claims in the second debate which left him looking/sounding better than he is on the economy.

However it seems now that much energy is shifting toward the ground game as people get turned off by advertisements and don't want to watch/hear anymore of them...

The positive Morgan Freeman ad and perhaps a postiive economic reminder from Clinton, and positive/fun reminders for women on issue of women's rights are probably all they can send out right now in ads.

The dems just hired my daughter as a field manager for GOTV in the Denver area. Women will make the difference in this election. Knocking on doors and making personal phone calls will help the president and other dems win.