dagblog - Comments for "Sunday Morning - Nate Silver pegs Obama's likelihood of victory at 85% . . . but"

Articleman who posts on the

Aunt Sam — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:27:19 +0000

In reply to I know what you mean. This

Articleman who posts on the polls provides me with my mellowing out fix and keeps hope alive. His posts will calm you while they deliver the best analysis anywhere. I also access Nate's blog, it provides me with a second layer. Both have kept me from running through the streets screaming, 'Valium, anyone got some valium? OMG help me please.' It wouldn't be pretty.

Hope you hang around, sounds like you'd fit right in here. Come back and stay awhile.

I know what you mean. This

Bullybaby1 — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 04:02:51 +0000

In reply to I must not read any more

I know what you mean. This has driven me over the edge. I wish I could find a dark whole and stay there until Wednesday morning. If it wasn't for Nate Silver, I would be in a strait jacket by now.

You have to see

Aunt Sam — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 22:16:54 +0000

In reply to A few polls on MSNBC show a

You have to see this!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/04/ohio-early-voting_n_2073287.html

I must not read any more

Aunt Sam — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 20:11:58 +0000

In reply to The Repubs know that they

I must not read any more about polls or election day forecasts. I need to adopt the zen attitude and what will be, will be - the die is cast. Because if I don't I am fearful I will go krazy.

Florida closed down a early voting location ahead of schedule because too many people showed up to cast their votes (most couldn't cast their ballots). Ohio's early voting lines are insane and how many will be turned away, ne'er able to vote? Something is terribly wrong.

The Repubs know that they

Elusive Trope — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 19:45:52 +0000

In reply to Sunday Morning - Nate Silver pegs Obama's likelihood of victory at 85% . . . but

The Repubs know that they can't make a legitimate case they'll win Ohio so they throw some other states that none of the pundits have been watching into the mix. Get some polls to show it is tight in those states and they're able to keep their base hopeful. It's pretty simple. Romney can possibly lose FL if he can't get turn out in central part of the state. Any sense of doom will doom them.

A few polls on MSNBC show a

Richard Day — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 18:56:07 +0000

In reply to Sunday Morning - Nate Silver pegs Obama's likelihood of victory at 85% . . . but

A few polls on MSNBC show a 'tightening' race.

I dunno anymore.

If something were really happening out there, Nate would nail it!

I think that Obama is going to see 303+ electoral votes.

And I think the race will be called by the time Cal closes its polls.

On Tuesday we must rely on repub manufactured voting machines.

Nate just explained himself

HSG — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 17:05:00 +0000

In reply to Sunday Morning - Nate Silver pegs Obama's likelihood of victory at 85% . . . but

Nate just explained himself at fivethirtyeight.com. He views the Susquehanna tie in PA as favorable to Obama since Susquehanna has been biased by up to 5 points towards the Republican candidate and (now I'm speculating as to what's in Silver's model) given that 1) recent polls from Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin show all three solidly blue plus 2) there has really been no good news for Romney in Ohio, the race is starting to slip away from him. I wish I were as sanguine but Nate, as usual and like Articleman, presents a persuasive case for a good outcome. One other point: many here are rightly concerned about election fraud but Nate has noted that in recent elections the state polls have very accurately predicted outcomes. This would not be the case if a significant number of Democratic votes had been suppressed.