dagblog - Comments for "Sudden Rise in Home Demand Takes Builders by Surprise"

What you say makes sense, but

Verified Atheist — Fri, 22 Mar 2013 14:31:02 +0000

What you say makes sense, but from my (limited) experience (AKA anecdotal evidence), I haven't witnessed this. The parents that I know that have kids moving in are the same kind of parents that tend to be enablers, although I'm not going to argue that's always the case. I'd wager that this phenomenon also varies greatly based on regional norms. I.e., if you live in a region where you tend to live in one house for most of your life, you're far less likely to sell it just because you're older. However, if you move every 5-10 years, then, sure, you're more likely to be looking for a smaller one, unless you want to have plenty of guest rooms for grandkids.

All speculation, of course, which is why I'm interested in seeing the data.

I also wonder about the

Donal — Fri, 22 Mar 2013 11:46:33 +0000

In reply to I myself always thought the

I also wonder about the phenomenon of grown kids that never leave or move back in when they graduate and can't find real jobs. Some might want to accommodate the prodigals, but some might want a smaller house or condo precisely to avoid permanent house guests. There's a mattress commercial on the tube with the son moving back in with his skanky fiancee that might scare some older couples into an efficiency.

A lot of folk with kids move near the good schools, and once the kids are educated they move to areas with lower property taxes. And a lot of people don't want to care for a big house and yard once they get older.

Lets hope the housing

Resistance — Fri, 22 Mar 2013 00:06:02 +0000

In reply to Sudden Rise in Home Demand Takes Builders by Surprise

Lets hope the housing shortage continues, that'll drive the cost of available houses up. Allowing those who continued to pay their underwater mortgages, to recover the lost value.

Don't allow the home builders to bring in illegal, undocumented / workers, to do the work, American workers won't do that cheap. If the home builders want workers, let them support Unions, who will train the future carpenters, plumbers and electricians.

I've heard there are plenty off college grads, wanting to work at a job with decent wages, in order to pay off their school loans.

A shortage of homes and a shortage of workers, will get the price up for both concerns.

The American middle class may still rise again?

I myself always thought the

Verified Atheist — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 21:21:36 +0000

In reply to For what it's worth, the

I myself always thought the "Boomers will all try to sell the McMansions at the same time" thing was a given.

I've heard this theory before, but I've always been skeptical of it, as it ignores both the sentimental values of existing homes (children and/or grandchildren having spent many years in them) and the inertia factor. For many people, there would have to be a strong reason to sell an existing home. Now sure, if the stock market was continuing to go down instead of up, I think this theory would have a lot more merit. I'm not saying the theory's wrong, just that I'm curious as to whether there's any data to back it up.

For what it's worth, the

artappraiser — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 20:39:23 +0000

In reply to Odd, I just read another

For what it's worth, the Times made the story their page 1 headline story in today's print edition. So the editors think "this is surprising big news contrary to conventional wisdom."

I myself always thought the "Boomers will all try to sell the McMansions at the same time" thing was a given. And yeah the story doesn't have a lot of detail. But it should stir things up and get more people looking at data to prove or disprove or give more nuance to what is happening? The story (and charts) do show that what they are talking about is skewed heavily to certain areas like Sacramento, and in the areas it's so strong that averaging out makes it look nationwide, but many areas still have bad numbers. So what the story alerts to is something that will help ramp up the economy, without reviving real estate in that many areas? Location, location, location, as always?

(Speaking of location specifics,as an example, in NYC as a homeowner in the Bronx, I never saw evidence of construction-related workers being so devastated by unemployment that they were begging for work. Contractors, plumbers, electricians, et.al. never were begging for small jobs here, never. You still had to beg them, i.e., they want cash, their estimates are all the same, they will maybe try to fit you in next week between jobs, etc., or they didn't even call you back...and Hurricane Sandy didn't exactly help this situation...the only begging for work I saw evidence of were people that said they were painters, but then if you'd ask them if they could paint like the outside of the house, they'd say no....they weren't really painters.)

Odd, I just read another

Donal — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 16:00:00 +0000

In reply to Sudden Rise in Home Demand Takes Builders by Surprise

Odd, I just read another article predicting that the boomers are supposed to be ready to sell their McMansions and move to smaller digs:

The Great Senior Sell-Off Could Cause the Next Housing Crisis

In the coming years, baby boomers will be moving on (inching further through the python, if you will). “They will want to sell their homes, and they’re hoping there are people behind them to buy their homes,” says Nelson, director of the Metropolitan Research Center at the University of Utah. He expects that in growing metros like Atlanta and Dallas, those buyers will be waiting. But elsewhere, in shrinking and stagnant cities across the country, the story will be quite different. Nelson calls what’s coming the “great senior sell-off.” It’ll start sometime later this decade (Nelson is defining baby boomers as those people born between 1946 and 1964). And he predicts that it could cause our next real housing crisis.

The NY Times article doesn't go into detail about what sort of houses are suddenly being sought. In Altoona, we hear that smaller in-town houses like ours are being snapped up as soon as they are listed.