dagblog - Comments for "The Muslim Brotherhood Blows It"

What I've read suggests that

acanuck — Sat, 06 Jul 2013 07:25:01 +0000

In reply to Sorry - actually didn't care

What I've read suggests that by the time he took part in that conference on Syria, Morsi already knew his days as president were numbered. If the expected coup materialized, better to have tossed the hardliners a bone to keep them on his side. Given the poor state of the economy, I doubt it had much resonance, even within the MB. If he was sucking up to the salafis, it didn't work. They backed the coup.

Sorry - actually didn't care

PeraclesPlease — Sat, 06 Jul 2013 06:56:41 +0000

In reply to Morsi didn't rush to back

Sorry - actually didn't care about which side - getting involved in Syria's problems is a major distraction for Egypt's fragile new democracy. Palestine & Israel at least share a border.

Morsi didn't rush to back

acanuck — Sat, 06 Jul 2013 05:47:32 +0000

In reply to And to clarify my intent in

Morsi didn't rush to back Assad; he did the exact opposite, tacitly backing the jihadi-led rebels. Similar to the policy Turkish protesters are holding against Erdogan.

And to clarify my intent in

PeraclesPlease — Sat, 06 Jul 2013 05:15:35 +0000

In reply to I'd point out his

And to clarify my intent in this thread, I thought it was a given that Morsi had botched it. (There's not much upside to a 1-year reign where he grabs a bunch of extrajudicial powers and then rushes to back Assad)

My intent was to give Erdogan some credit - he's been pretty well demonized, but until the last month or 2, he's run a very stable acceptable government for over 2 terms despite a lot of doom-and-gloom at the beginning. His shelf-life is past, leaders by 3rd term are often awful, and his is proving the rule with his attitude towards protest & dissent.

Nevertheless, Russia builds up cooperation via threats & goodies with its old Soviet minons, France has economic cooperation with all its former colonies, Britain still maintains its union of former colonies and spinoffs, Spain holds a special place in negotiating and trading with all its former conquests in the New World - but Turkey is demonized for any mention of Ottoman times or traditional links in the Balkans or Levant. Quite hypocritical. A touristic nostalgic monumentt to an Ottoman barracks won't bring back the Sick Man of Europe, and 100 years after Ataturk a woman who wears a headscarf shouldn't threaten Turkey's well-established position as a western-focused country with a secular Muslim outlook.

Whoa, art. Where is this

acanuck — Sat, 06 Jul 2013 05:07:40 +0000

In reply to I'd point out his

Whoa, art. Where is this ad-hominem stuff coming from? Do I have family in the MB? No, neither I nor any of my relatives are Muslim; I'm kinda irreligious, and would find it difficult living in a theocracy, or in Texas for that matter. But would it make a difference if I were? I offer my opinions on the same basis you do. They may be right or wrong; counter them if you want to and if you can.

Same thing for "a Canadian coming on Dagblog and making excuses for the Tea Party." They are definitely not my cup of tea, but if I thought they were being unfairly impugned, I would feel free to say so. I follow both international and domestic U.S. policy closely enough that I feel qualified to comment on them. When my citizenship becomes a violation of Dagblog TOS, believe me, I'm outta here.

Is the quote of mine you cite "an extremely pro-MB interpretation?" No, just factual; if I recall correctly, voting had already begun when the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces stripped the presidency of most of its powers. Morsi's firing of the military's old guard was skilfully done and widely welcomed; his attempt to grant himself immunity from court rulings was not, and his reaction was to rescind it. The guy tried to walk a tightrope and failed. That doesn't make him evil incarnate.

As for your assertion that three-quarters of Egyptians disagree with me, where's your data? Egypt has 85 million people. My sympathies lie with the educated, liberal and secular Cairenes and Alexandrians, but I recognize the majority of Egyptians remain poor, ill-educated, rural and devoutly religious.

Yes, Morsi failed to craft a consensus between those worlds, but anyone who thinks the military understands how to unite the country is incredibly naive. Maybe the opposition can unite behind someone with the skill and the vision to do that before the promised early elections, but past performance suggests no.

I'd point out his

artappraiser — Sat, 06 Jul 2013 04:06:00 +0000

In reply to I don't see a fundamental

I'd point out his extra-constitutional "power grabs" were aimed mainly at regaining powers that the military stripped from the presidency virtually the day he was elected

That's an extremely pro-MB interpretation. Protestors in November certainly didn't feel that way. It's a puzzle to me why are you so eager to make excuses for a party that roughly only a quarter of the Egyptian population has any confidence in after a period of rule. It's one thing to opine that Egypt is going about this the wrong way, it's another to make excuses when most Egyptians don't seem to agree with you. Why do you think you know better than that 75%? Or the more than 15 million that signed the petition calling for Morsi's removal? (22 million according to Tamarod.) Do you have family in the MB or something? Some special feelings for them? To me it's sort of like a Canadian coming on Dagblog and making excuses for the Tea Party, saying that they are not as bad as the majority of Americans are cracking them up to be.

I don't see a fundamental

acanuck — Fri, 05 Jul 2013 21:11:04 +0000

In reply to [assume you meant Taksim

I don't see a fundamental disagreement between you and Michael, although I'd point out his extra-constitutional "power grabs" were aimed mainly at regaining powers that the military stripped from the presidency virtually the day he was elected. Also at keeping Mubarak-appointed judges from dissolving every legislative body on pretexts that were raised only after it was clear who had won. Morsi may well have been ham-handed, but please acknowledge he was fighting a rear-guard action against the "feloul" from Day One.

It's interesting to compare Erdogan and Morsi, but I find debating whether Morsi got what he deserved frustrating in the same way I do discussion of Snowden: hero or traitor? Distractions. The real questions are what does this all mean for the future of Egyptian democracy, and what does this all mean for the future of U.S. democracy?

As far as Egypt goes, I share this opinion:

http://arabist.net/blog/2013/7/5/the-trouble-with-a-coup-for-democracy

[assume you meant Taksim

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 05 Jul 2013 10:45:07 +0000

In reply to I'm struck by the differences

[assume you meant Taksim Square and Gezi Park for Turkey]

Somehow this feels like conflating 2 different things. Morsi did a huge constitutional power grab. You can say "Erodogan slow-played" but it's not even slow play - he's governed pretty much in a secular style. The Taksim protests have been about knocking down part of the Ataturk cultural center to put in an Ottoman barracks and shopping center - not exactly a Sharia priority, but a combination of feared nostalgic revival and more handouts to monied interests.

Erdogan is struggling to push his neo-Ottoman vision - and after his 3rd election, you might call it a mandate for change. Aside from the greater arrest of journalists in the last year, his big affronts have been to discourage drinking, to rename a bridge for a Sultan and to try to push through the barracks. At the same time as pushing his "neo-Ottoman" influence in the Balkans, he's very pro-EU. Of course secularists can still be worried about increased influence of Islam, there seems to be much less tangible than the rash of US legislatures pushing through anti-abortion legislation at night the last couple weeks. Yes, Erdogan decreased the power of the military over the last 10 years, which is only right in a country that's becoming stably democratic and aspiring for the EU. And while I admire Ataturk, I don't see a modest pride in the Ottoman period (no one's bringing back scimitars and fezes) as much more threatening than our love of cowboy attire despite its symbolism of a bloody phase in our history. Erdogan's actually improved relations with the long-suffering Kurds - yes, it also reflects the shared religion and conservative values, but isn't that part of democratic representation?

Erdogan's biggest flaw has been his response to the recent protests, by then acting more authoritarian, sending in the police in bloody charges, and refusing to budge against obvious public sentiment. And he's being punished for this - by the very-much-alive courts which just canceled his project plus threw out additional penalties for actions against the state, and other political opposition. In short, the system is working and Erdogan hasn't dismantled it all - though seems the unimaginativeness of the opposition is also a problem in pulling together popular support.

Nevertheless, the military remains a big question because of actions Erdogan took in early June to put over 120 generals on criminal trial for a decades-old coup, and then more actions announced June 27 to eliminate any military authority to respond to internal threats (coupled with a big denouncement of Egypt's military coup today).

The point being that everything significant has happened since Erdogan's last re-election and mostly in the last month, not really a slow dissolving of power.

Compare all this with Morsi, who having a weak hand to start, in his first year made several huge power grabs against the constitution and the pre-installed military to take powers into his own hands, as well as trying to drag Egypt into the Syria conflict.

Well, it's also part of

artappraiser — Thu, 04 Jul 2013 21:29:14 +0000

In reply to Except that ElBaradei is not

Well, it's also part of Mansour's first talking points. (And I note the National Salvation Front is echoing that.) So if they're doing a witch hunt, looks like they would have to be doing a "good MB" and "bad MB thing." They could maybe get away with hiding doing more if they keep the MB media under muzzle, but it's real labor intensive to do a complete job of that these days with the internet available.

I'm struck by the differences

Michael Wolraich — Thu, 04 Jul 2013 20:43:53 +0000

In reply to The Muslim Brotherhood Blows It

I'm struck by the differences between Erdogan and Morsi. Turkey and Egypt are very different, but both men led moderate Islamic parties and challenged secular militaries with a history of political interference.

Erdogan was very smart about it. He slow-played his hand, building up his popularity with effective governance while gradually sidelining the military. He didn't openly confront the generals until 2007, five years after he took office. By that point, he had enough political muscle to defeat them. Only then did he begin to employ the strong-arm tactics that incited the Tahrir Square protests, which is why the Turkish military showed no sign of intervening.

Morsi, on the other hand, overplayed a weak hand, as you've eloquently described.