dagblog - Comments for "How American Hopes for a Deal in Egypt Were Undercut"

These three polls you cite

Peter — Sun, 25 Aug 2013 02:12:33 +0000

In reply to I believe you are trying to

These three polls you cite could have been about the US and our corrupt failing system. The reason I have challenged you is because some of the polls you cite are beyond belief even with the limited information that I have available. We and the Egyptians have been inundated with gross propaganda from the beginning of this tragedy starting with the number of anti-Morsi demonstrators and petitioners. This is not really about Morsi and his failures or the MB anymore it is about how the people of Egypt were manipulated, by the fulool, Liberals and business interests, into supporting, in large numbers, the destruction of the Revolution they fought so hard for. With a democratic, elected government they had a chance to remove the MB from power through elections, now they have nothing.

P.S. We will get more in

artappraiser — Sat, 24 Aug 2013 20:50:29 +0000

In reply to I believe you are trying to

P.S. We will get more in time, I am sure. I want to track that. That's why I posted what I saw. Not to argue, but to start the tracking. Given that Egypt is now a military state with controls on the media, yes I will admit right now that I am going to trust the international organizations with long track records more than I am going to trust polls from any Egyptian organization. And yes, I am fully aware that the former may not have ideal sampling skills within Egypt but I expect that will at least be trying to ferret out some truth.

I believe you are trying to

artappraiser — Sat, 24 Aug 2013 19:44:53 +0000

In reply to I don't want to start a Poll

I believe you are trying to start a poll war or you wouldn't provoke with such a comment. There ain't much to war with, though, so let's get it over with right away.

In Egypt there's Baseera and there's the guys you are quoting.

The organization that's your ammunition, "Egyptian Centre For Media Studies and Public Opinion," sometimes with the additional identifier "not Baseera" doesn't even bother to show its data or bother to back up anything it says, and mentions of it first started appearing, seemingly out of nowhere, in July:

http://www.tahrirsquared.com/node/5307

while Baseera does at least bother to look like they are a professional polling organization:

http://www.baseera.com.eg/beta/aboutus.aspx

In English, I cannot find any examples of the one you are quoting being touted on anything other than pro-MB sites, and where I can find it, it's without any links to any data or even a simple chart, just a few sentences. It does not appear to be mentioned by Al Jazeera.

As for international organizations, there's nothing post massacre but there is Gallup

with the stuff done directly before:

Egyptians See Life Worse Now Than Before Mubarak's Fall

Media freedom is the only perceived improvement

August 16, 2013

Egyptians are pessimistic about what their country has gained since Mubarak's overthrow. The majority sees worse employment opportunities and doesn't see the job situation improving soon. But a majority says media freedom has improved.

More ...

As Morsi Ousted, "Suffering" Shot Up in Egypt

Eight in 10 Egyptians say economy getting worse

August 8, 2013

In the lead up to President Mohamed Morsi's ouster, "suffering" in Egypt rose to 34%. In addition, a record 80% of Egyptians saw their economy as getting worse.

More ...

Egyptians' Views of Government Crashed Before Overthrow

Confidence in electoral process also shaken

August 2, 2013

Weeks before former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi was deposed, Egyptians' confidence in their government plummeted, as did their confidence in the honesty of elections in the country.

and there was this Pew study published in May.

I don't want to start a Poll

Peter — Sat, 24 Aug 2013 15:28:53 +0000

In reply to Poll: 67% of Egyptians

I don't want to start a Poll War but isn't this the same outfit that claimed that 95% of Egyptians supported Mubarak? Some interesting results from the Egyptian Centre For Media Studies and Public Opinion, 79% believe the massacre are Crimes Against Humanity and General Sissi is responsible for them, 69% believe Al Jazzera is the most credible source of news in the country.

Poll: 67% of Egyptians

artappraiser — Sat, 24 Aug 2013 01:07:03 +0000

In reply to How American Hopes for a Deal in Egypt Were Undercut

Poll: 67% of Egyptians satisfied with sit-in dispersals
MadaMasr.com, August 22, 2013

A recent poll has suggested that 67 percent of Egyptians are satisfied with the way the Rabea al-Adaweya and Nahda Square sit-ins were dispersed by security forces last week. This left 24 percent displeased with the way the sit-ins were dispersed, and 9 percent saying they cannot judge.

The poll, conducted by Baseera between August 19 and 21, surveyed 1395 people across Egypt’s governorates.

It said that 17 percent of respondents thought the protesters camped at Rabea al-Adaweya and Nahda were peaceful, while 67 percent disagreed.

Only 23 percent of those polled felt security forces used excessive force in dispersing the sit-ins, compared to 65 percent who felt otherwise [....]

The high death toll was blamed on the protesters by 62 percent of respondents, while only 13 percent hold the security forces accountable.

Baseera said it decided not to conduct the poll immediately after the sit-ins were dispersed to give the public a chance to gather information and better evaluate the situation.

Seventy percent of Egyptians said the time given to negotiations with the protesters was enough, while 25 percent said more time should have been given.

Seventy-eight percent of those surveyed disagreed with international reactions to the dispersal of the sit-ins, while only 8 percent found the reactions justifiable [....]

On the same poll:

Ahram Online

Egypt Independent

Daily News Egypt

Saudi Arabia Promises to Aid

artappraiser — Tue, 20 Aug 2013 07:31:53 +0000

In reply to How American Hopes for a Deal in Egypt Were Undercut

Saudi Arabia Promises to Aid Egypt’s Regime
By Rod Nordland, New York Times, August 19/20, 2013

[....] As Europeans and the United States considered cutting cash aid to Egypt, Saudi Arabia said Monday that it and its allies would make up any reduction — effectively neutralizing the West’s main leverage over Cairo. With Egypt’s economy in free fall, the country’s authorities might not have survived international outrage at a crackdown that has left as many as 1,000 dead and 4,000 wounded without the deep pockets of its Persian Gulf allies.

In recent days, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has publicly condemned the Muslim Brotherhood, sent field hospitals to Egypt and in rare public comments vowed continued support. The foreign minister, Prince Saud Al-Faisal, traveled to Europe, where he pushed back against efforts to punish Egypt’s rulers. And Saudi Arabia delivered a blank check to Cairo, promising to shower it with money as needed.

“The kingdom stands with Egypt and against all those who try to interfere with its domestic affairs,” King Abdullah said Friday in a televised speech.

Saudi Arabia, which itself is a close ally of Washington, has not only undermined Western efforts to press for compromise, but has also revealed diminished United States influence across the Arab world [....]

Once-despised Egyptian

artappraiser — Tue, 20 Aug 2013 07:27:34 +0000

In reply to How American Hopes for a Deal in Egypt Were Undercut

Once-despised Egyptian military finds favor after short-lived democracy
By Nancy A. Youssef and Amina Ismail, McClatchy Foreign Staff, August 19, 2013

CAIRO — Soha Sayed was once an iconic face in a nation weary of an Egyptian government dominated by the military.

Her husband, an accidental revolutionary, was fatally shot during the country’s 2011 uprising that pressed for democracy.

Widowed, she called for former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s conviction for her husband’s death.

“Nothing,” she insisted, “could happen here without Mubarak knowing.”

When Mubarak was convicted last year, a photo of Sayed, joyfully crying behind sunglasses while carrying a poster of her late husband, traveled the world.

No more. The woman who once said Egyptians demanded change, who lost her husband to old norms and who supported Mohammed Morsi’s rise as Egypt’s first democratically elected leader, on Monday welcomed his ouster by the same military implicated in her husband’s killing.

Gen. Abdel-Fateh el-Sissi, the defense minster and de facto Egyptian leader, is “the nation’s savior,” she said [.....]

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/08/19/199747/once-despised-egyptian-mili...

Gulf Islamist Dissent Over

artappraiser — Mon, 19 Aug 2013 21:22:56 +0000

In reply to How American Hopes for a Deal in Egypt Were Undercut

Gulf Islamist Dissent Over Egypt
Posted By Marc Lynch, ForeignPolicy.com, August 18, 2013 - 8:05 PM

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia issued an unusually rapid and strong endorsement of the Egyptian military crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood's sit-ins, calling on all Arabs to unite behind a crackdown on terrorism, incitement, and disorder. Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait rapidly backed his stance. But many of the most popular and influential Saudi and Kuwaiti Islamist personalities disagreed vehemently and publicly. Indeed, a popular hashtag quickly appeared on Twitter: "King Abdullah's Speech Does Not Represent Me."

There is a long history of Islamists challenging official policy in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, of course. But even if the uproar could quickly fade away or be absorbed into politics as usual, particularly if the violence dies down in Egypt, it's worth paying attention to the growing, intense public divide between these Islamist personalities and official policy over Egypt. Even more than domestic politics, the impact might be felt most strongly in Syria -- where the same voices now criticizing the support for Egypt's crackdown have been at the forefront of mobilizing public support for the Syrian opposition [....]

The most important piece of

artappraiser — Mon, 19 Aug 2013 18:49:34 +0000

In reply to How American Hopes for a Deal in Egypt Were Undercut

The most important piece of the last few days about Egypt, in my view, in this great reporting by David Kirkpatrick, Peter Baker and Michael Gordon in the New York Times. It's worth reading carefully [....]

---Issandr El Amrani @ The Arabist in Egypt Links 15-18 August 2013

Read the whole post, as Issandr has an update from a source familiar with the negotiations / mediation efforts (not a journalist and not an American) about the McCain/Graham role.

How American Hopes for a Deal

Beetlejuice — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 17:04:08 +0000

In reply to How American Hopes for a Deal in Egypt Were Undercut

How American Hopes for a Deal in Egypt Were Undercut

[ 1 ] “You could tell people were itching for a fight,” Mr. Graham

[ 2 ] I said: ‘Mr. Prime Minister, it’s pretty hard for you to lecture anyone on the rule of law. How many votes did you get? Oh, yeah, you didn’t have an election.’ ”

[ 3 ] Mr. Graham said, seemed “a little bit intoxicated by power.”

The President is the elected international diplomat for the country. And yet Senator Graham is doing everything possible to scuttle the US position.

His only purpose there is to ask questions and clarify answers given ... his personal impressions and interpretations have no business being aired during media/press interviews ... because they end up becoming an official government statement which undermines the efforts of the President.

And Secretary of State John Kerry doused the issue with gasoline too that was way too short-sighted.

Furthermore, Obama failed to realize the changing political dynamics in Egypt meant the usual strings they use to rely upon to rein in the government were no longer long enough or had been completely severed.

And of course, no one realized what other Arab state's say to the US is completely different to what they say to one another ... the State Department should have been on the ball and kept Obama and Kerry up-to-date on how to interpret their discussions.

There's a lot of blame to pass around ... both the past and current Administration and Congressional leaders for not having a sound foundation to deal with political factions in the Middle East.