dagblog - Comments for "Rouhani Taking iran in New Direction?"

Iran?s supreme leader,

artappraiser — Wed, 18 Sep 2013 06:37:22 +0000

In reply to Rouhani Taking iran in New Direction?

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, endorses diplomacy over militarism
By Jason Rezaian, Washington Post, September 17, 2013

TEHRAN — Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Tuesday that his country should embrace diplomacy over militarism, saying it was time for “heroic leniency,” and signaled his embrace of international outreach efforts by new president Hassan Rouhani.

Although Khamenei said the Islamic republic must never abandon its revolutionary ideals and objectives, he said it was time to address Iran’s diplomatic disputes with major world powers.In an interview aired Tuesday evening by the Spanish-language broadcaster Telemundo, President Obama said that an opportunity for diplomacy has arisen.

“I hope the Iranians take advantage of it,” he said. “There are indications that Rouhani, the new president, is somebody who is looking to open dialogue with the West and with the United States in a way that we haven’t seen in the past. And so we should test it.”

For talks to succeed, Obama said [....]

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today reiterated his opposition to nuclear weapons.

By Nader Uskowi, Uskowi on Iran, Sept. 17, 2013

“We are against nuclear weapons not because of the US or other countries, but because of our beliefs,” Khamenei said. “And when we say no one should have nuclear weapons, we definitely do not pursue it ourselves either.” (IRIB/Press TV, 17 September)

Khamenei made the comments during a Tuesday meeting with the commanders of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC).

Iran sanctions: now is the time to negotiate
New president Rouhani deserves to be taken seriously and to be engaged with constructively by west - analysis
By M Hashem Pesaran for the Tehran Bureau @ theguardian.com, 17 September 2013

Recent Iran TV news interviews of IRI President Rouhani

(TWO VIDEO CLIPS WITH THIS TEXT)
By Mark Pyruz, Uskowi on Iran, Sept. 16, 2013

English translations on his views of the nuclear issue and Syria conflict, by Monitor Middle East

Monitor Mideast translation of Iran TV news segment where IRI President Rouhani is seen questioning an IRIB reporter on long-held myths regarding his past track record as Iran's nuclear negotiator.

Monitor Mideast translation of Iran TV mews segment where IRI President Rouhani discusses the situation in Syria, chemical weapons and a potential U.S.-led strike.

It's this writer's opinion that these YouTube translations are unfortunately titled. Still, being translated into English they are particularly useful in dispelling a notion among certain quarters that Rouhani is some kind of Gorbachev character in Iranian politics, with the potential of rendering a political implosion of the IRI. Continuity of core interests can be readily discerned in these short clips, as is also evident in a recent interview of IRI Foreign Minister Zarif.

Rouhani Willing to Decommission Fordo if West Lifts Sanctions – Der Spiegel

By Nader Uskowi, Uskowi on Iran, Sept. 16, 2013

Der Spiegel, the German weekly news magazine renowned for its investigative journalism, reported today in its online edition that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani would be willing to decommission the country’s Fordo uranium enrichment facility if the West lifts its sanctions against Iran.

Saying that the international sanctions are taking their toll on Iran’s economy, Spiegel said intelligence sources now expect Rouhani administration to make major concessions during the upcoming nuclear talks with the six major powers on the long-running standoff over the country’s nuclear program.

The report reiterated previous concerns in the West that Fordo uranium enrichment unit, not far from the holy city of Qom, is viewed as a particularly grave threat [....]

From the other analysts I

artappraiser — Mon, 16 Sep 2013 00:26:16 +0000

In reply to And here is an interesting

From the other analysts I have read, it is an extremely clear signal that in that Khamenei’ has allowed Rouhani to transfer the power of nuke negotiations from the SNSC to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, knowing that the western-friendly Zarif would be the Foreign Minister. A very significant move.

It is pretty clear they want to try a new paradigm, people and mullahs both.

I myself can't see any other conclusion than that getting the EU on board with being tough on sanctions really worked, in concert with the people's vote for Rouhani, of course. It is clear that both the people and Khamenei want out of the isolation. Mainly because of the economic consequences, but that's not the only reason. They weren't so very isolated when they could do still do business with the EU, that was the thing. I think the people as well as the mullahs are into being a major player on the world stage, with pride in their Persian history--not one of those 20th-century-invented countries, nor wanting to be a retiring Switzerland or a Norway. So to be relegated to being a pariah in most of the world, and doing business only with like, Venezuela and Pakistan and China, that was not for them, just couldn't continue forever. Doesn't mean giving up the theocracy, just a desire to have interaction with the whole world as one. The Sauds do that, after all, and they are merely one of those "invented" countries.

And here is an interesting

Bruce Levine — Sun, 15 Sep 2013 23:38:54 +0000

In reply to Rouhani Taking iran in New Direction?

And here is an interesting take suggesting that the Ayatollah Khamenei, despite the rhetoric , is giving Rouhani and the West a chance to engage in real diplomacy:

Addressing the question of why, despite all these positive developments, Ayatollah Khamenei made detractory statements, there are a couple of possible explanations. It could be argued that the move was aimed to undermine Rouhani and his reconciliatory approach toward the West, to maintain the status quo. However, this notion is likely inaccurate.

Iran’s supreme leader knew Rouhani’s mandate from the onset of his election campaign, and while many observers in the West predicted that, as a result of vote rigging, the conservative candidate Saeed Jalili would be Iran’s next president, Rouhani won more votes than the five other conservative candidates combined.

Moreover, Rouhani is not a newcomer. He has been Ayatollah Khamenei’s confidante, as well as his representative in the SNSC for 23 years, until this year’s June elections.

In addition, in his statements on Sept. 5, Ayatollah Khamenei set the tone for flexibility on interactions with the rest of the world when he orated, “As long as red lines are not crossed … artful and heroic flexibility in all the political arenas are accepted.” Many observers in Iran interpreted this as support for Rouhani’s synergetic foreign policy.

Another, perhaps more likely, explanation to Ayatollah Khamenei’s remarks is that they were a message to the West not to miss this opportunity to make a deal with Rouhani. A former Iranian diplomat suggested — in confidence — that Ayatollah Khamenei’s remarks were a message to the West: “If you miss this opportunity, you’ll have to deal with me [Ayatollah Khameni] ,” and in fact, this is the Iranian government's way. Rouhani represents an opportunity to reach diplomatic compromise on multiple fronts with Iran.

Rouhani’s political credentials are unique. Since he has served as the secretary of the SNSC for 16 years — he spent eight years as the head of parliament's foreign policy committee, and he was Iran’s chief negotiator from 2003 until 2005 — he understands both foreign policy and the Iranian nuclear crisis.

The breadth of his experience in navigating Iran’s politics and the confidence that the nezam (political system) has in him is unmatched, placing him in a unique position to negotiate with Iran’s supreme leader and members of Iran’s SNSC — as well as with foreign powers. The voluntary suspension of the uranium enrichment between 2003 and 2005 happened thanks to Rouhani’s negotiations with actors both inside and outside of Iran.

Many Western officials believe that Rouhani’s election does not equate, or even allow for, change in Iran’s policies because ultimately the supreme leader makes decisions. However, Iran’s supreme leader is not immune from the influence of the people around him — which is a human trait — and cannot ignore his citizens’ desire for change.

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/09/khamenei-iran-rouhani-...