dagblog - Comments for "Economy, Ecology, Efficiency, Catastrophe"

I think this comes back to

Doctor Cleveland — Fri, 31 Jan 2014 19:01:24 +0000

I think this comes back to the question of excess capacity in non-emergency times. To put on extra flights during a week of weather disruptions, airlines would have to lease more gates at airports and buy (although they technically lease) more planes. They would need to carry *excess* capacity during every day operations.

You can't really ramp up your carrying capacity when things hit the fan, in the same way a freeway that's gotten choked in an unexpected emergency (hello, Atlanta), can suddenly add three extra lanes. Airlines could plan to deal with the bad times, but that would require spending more during the good times. They're willing to let their whole enterprise foul up a few times a year in order to improve the bottom line during the rest of the year.

I was once told that the Postal Service devised its delivery routes so that the mail carrier could do them on the WORST possible day. The mail carrier has a route that s/he can manage in a howling blizzard. On normal days, they simply have an easier job. If the worker gets done at 2 pm on a beautiful spring day, that's the price for knowing that the worker will get things done by 5 on the ugliest day of the winter.

This, of course, is socialist and inefficient. If private enterprise ran the US mail, they would hire just enough carriers and buy just enough trucks so that all the mail would just barely get delivered by five on the good days. And on the bad days, the mail just wouldn't get delivered. "Efficiency."

I'm sure those are all

Michael Maiello — Fri, 31 Jan 2014 16:14:50 +0000

In reply to "American could, if it

I'm sure those are all problems and that there aren't perfect solutions. But, things can be better, I think, than they are now.

"American could, if it

Anonymous — Thu, 30 Jan 2014 00:43:19 +0000

In reply to Part of the problem is that

"American could, if it wanted, double its flights the day after most blizzards. "

Not necessarily.

First, for the same reasons that there aren't extra seats on flights, airlines may not have enough extra planes handy.

But, independent of the airlines, the airPORTS may not have the capacity to add many extra flights. Takeoff and landing slots are sold well in advance and, I think, pretty much all taken.

Thinking aloud here...wouldn't you either have to set additional flights at crazy times like 2 a.m.? (Bothering neighbors under the flight path) Or bump small flights from their slots for larger planes? (Maybe going just to other major hubs, where people would catch other connectors)

Dr. Deming developed the

trkingmomoe — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 20:52:44 +0000

In reply to Economy, Ecology, Efficiency, Catastrophe

Dr. Deming developed the "just in time" to help Toyota with the fact that they didn't have the space or the cash flow to stock pile parts. At the time Japan's banking industry was having serious liquidly problems that came to a crises in the "Lost Decade." Japan is small compared to USA. The more area you have to move product the more that can go wrong. It has also become very costly with the now high oil prices. This mind set has to change in this country in order for manufacturing to return to full capacity. The Dr. Deming model was pushed as a manufacturing profit solution by Dr. Reich in the 1980's because I remember going to a lecture where Dr. Reich was a guess speaker on this topic. Later he became part of Clinton's administration. I was taking a business class at the time.

Orlando comes to mind. One

trkingmomoe — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 20:23:30 +0000

In reply to Let me give you a two-part

Orlando comes to mind. One of the big issues with Rick Scott is the fact that he turned down the high speed rail. It was very close to being shovel ready and was needed to connect Tampa, Orlando and Miami for expanded hotel space for all the large conferences that wanted to use Florida in the winter. It will keep us out of the Summer Olympics. His re-election has been doomed ever since he did that. The hospitality business community has been eager to make sure he don't get elected again.

Absolutely. And of course,

Doctor Cleveland — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 17:36:03 +0000

In reply to Part of the problem is that

Absolutely. And of course, the airlines tried to blame "too much" regulation, meaning safety regulations. As if putting sleep-deprived pilots in the cockpits would solve everything.

If it weren't for the existing regulations, they would likely become even more dysfunctional. And of course, their focus is on *barely* meeting the regulatory minima.

Of course, changing the rules about weather delays would change the behavior.

Part of the problem is that

Michael Maiello — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 15:45:33 +0000

In reply to Economy, Ecology, Efficiency, Catastrophe

Part of the problem is that the deregulated airline contract has become so skewed in favor of the carriers. They aren't responsible for the weather, they say. Fine. But that seems to absolve them of all responsibility to get you to your destination within a reasonable amount of time following the disruption. We just got caught in Chicago and the sense of "nothing we can do about it," on the part of American Airlines employees was palpably annoying. Partly, this is because the employees can't do much. But the employees can't do much because the airlines know the customers have no recourse.

Because, here's the thing about the weather -- it's largely predicted in advance. American could, if it wanted, double its flights the day after most blizzards. It could even contact customers booked during effected dates and try to get them on earlier flights. But all of this would involve spending money on customer service and that is not the way at all for contemporary American Airlines where now even the right to board first is for sale.

Oh, I've been delayed on my

Doctor Cleveland — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 04:48:11 +0000

In reply to Ah, it all makes sense now.

Oh, I've been delayed on my way to MLA before. Goodness, yes. It's air travel in the middle of winter. (And if we didn't do it in mid-winter, the job-interviewing part of the conference would just end. These decisions have to get made over the winter.)

I just haven't been delayed three or four days on my way to MLA. That's what's new here: the inability to recover from a weather event, especially when you can count on at least one intense event every winter.)

And making a strong rail system part of our transportation mix is a great idea. I would love to take more trains.

Ah, it all makes sense now.

Ramona — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 04:16:42 +0000

In reply to Let me give you a two-part

Ah, it all makes sense now. The weather will always be an issue, however, and if you've been lucky enough to get there in winter without those issues, well, you've been lucky.

But, yes, as long as the airlines keep shutting down unprofitable routes, air travel will continue to be a nightmare. We may have to go back to rail travel. That'll show 'em.

Let me give you a two-part

Doctor Cleveland — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 03:56:52 +0000

In reply to I agree about the wisdom of

Let me give you a two-part answer, because there are two questions: Why January? and Why Chicago?

January because it's more or less between semesters, or at the beginning of the second semester, and is a relatively workable time of year for almost everybody. (Until a few years ago, the conference was always December 27 to December 29, the one time of year that no one could claim to be in session. You can imagine the complaints.) It's a normal time of year for very large, all-discipline conferences. The American History Association meets around the same time every year. So do the economists.

Why Chicago? Because there are only so many cities where you can have this conference. You need hotel rooms, at discounted conference rates, for a conference with between seven thousand and ten thousand registered attendees. That means making a deal with a dozen or more large hotels and a convention center all clustered within a square mile or so. (Some of the registered members will stay elsewhere, but others will bring unregistered guests, like spouses and children.) Hotel rooms for 8000 within walking distance of each other narrows down the number of eligible cities pretty fast.

It also has to be a city that has a lot of direct flights, because you need to keep members' travel costs reasonable (remember, some of these people are graduate students looking for jobs), so you need a very heavy-duty airport. Chicago is a major airline hub, so in that sense it's perfect. (In fact, the closure of the Chicago airports helped screw up the system in part because it IS a major hub.)

Also, out of fairness to travelers, the organizers rotate the conference between Eastern, Midwestern, and Western cities, so people have their turns taking longer or shorter flights. Last year the conference was in Boston (my home town, but no traveler's delight in the winter). The year before that it was Seattle.

The truth is, when it's the Midwest's turn to host the conference it's usually Chicago. This is the third time I've been to MLA in Chicago in just under 15 years of going. There really aren't many other cities that can handle a meeting this big.