dagblog - Comments for "G.O.P., Though Deeply Split, Has Election Edge, Poll Shows"

Health Law Tied to G.O.P.

artappraiser — Thu, 13 Mar 2014 14:03:07 +0000

In reply to G.O.P., Though Deeply Split, Has Election Edge, Poll Shows

Health Law Tied to G.O.P. Victory in Florida Race
By Lizette Alvarez, New York Times, March 12/13, 2014

CLEARWATER, Fla. — For Democrats hoping to claim a prized House seat in a swing district, Alex Sink seemed a shining candidate: a moderate, business-minded banker and former candidate for governor with ample experience in running a big race and raising money for it.

But in the end, Tuesday’s special election showed that her campaign could not outrun the tsunami of advertisements tying her to President Obama’s health care law. And, just as important, Ms. Sink was unable to step out of Mr. Obama’s shadow. Although he won twice in Pinellas County, where Tuesday’s vote took place, his approval ratings in Florida were a liability this year.

Ms. Sink, 65, lost by 1.9 percentage points to the Republican, David Jolly, 41, a lobbyist whose former boss Representative C. W. Bill Young held the seat for four decades until he died in October.

The defeat was devastating at a time when Democrats are desperate to change the prevailing story line that 2014 could cost them the Senate, with the House already out of reach [....]

While both Republicans and Democrats said the health care law was not the only factor in the race, Mr. Jolly’s victory guarantees it will become a focus in competitive races elsewhere.

“It is clear to me that the Obamacare message worked for Jolly, particularly for the last two and a half weeks in the campaign,” said Brett Doster, a Republican political consultant who served as senior adviser in Florida to Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign. “I would be very surprised to see Republican candidates not using the issue. The president doubled down on it, national Democrats doubled down on it, and now it’s going to be a political football for the rest of the country.”

The race was awash in spending by outside groups, more from conservative than liberal ones, who sought to influence voters with negative advertising. This was decisive for Mr. Jolly, because Ms. Sink outraised him three to one and was ahead in the race until recently [....]

Republicans had a 13-point advantage in turnout in the district, even though the number of voters is almost equally divided between the two main parties, said Ms. Sink’s pollster, Geoff Garin. Ms. Sink nearly overcame the tilt, but not quite [....]

Makes a good case that turnout caused by advertising against Obamacare really helped Jolly get just enough extra votes.

not really, it was more like

artappraiser — Wed, 05 Mar 2014 01:48:31 +0000

In reply to Why then the mismatch between

not really, it was more like a conversation by and for politicos, presumed listeners understood things like the dynamic of the Senate races that will occur, which don't necessarily reflect the majority, and why the House doesn't really represent majority opinion, they didn't even address the House, like it still was surely GOP territory. Axelrod was talking more about what they have to do for the Senate, that it will be tough.

You can judge for yourself by watching the segment online, I just looked it up for you by going to Hardball's site:

http://www.msnbc.com/hardball/watch/new-poll-shows-americans-trust-dems-...

Despite the title there, they really spent more time talking about the topic of Cook's piece than the other poll. I admit I didn't listen that carefully, I was reading on the laptop at the same time.

Why then the mismatch between

Peter Schwartz — Wed, 05 Mar 2014 01:07:05 +0000

In reply to Chris Matthews just discussed

Why then the mismatch between what people are thinking and how the election is likely to turn out? Did they opine on this?

Chris Matthews just discussed

artappraiser — Wed, 05 Mar 2014 00:48:05 +0000

In reply to G.O.P., Though Deeply Split, Has Election Edge, Poll Shows

Chris Matthews just discussed the following Charlie Cook article with David Axelrod right now on Hardball and Axelrod didn't dispute it all, he basically agrees with Cook:

Congressional Democrats Face Uphill Battle in Midterms
The party’s chances of holding onto a majority in the Senate are looking increasingly tenuous.
By Charlie Cook, National Journal, March 3, 2014

At this point, eight months before the Nov. 4 election, it’s hard to see a lot of good news for congressional Democrats.

No matter how you look at it, the House seems out of reach. Today, Republicans appear a bit more likely to gain than to lose seats; it would take a cataclysmic event for Democrats to score the net gain of the 17 seats they need to take the majority.

What’s changed is that Democrats’ chances of holding onto their majority in the Senate is looking increasingly tenuous. There are now at least 10, and potentially as many as 13, Democratic-held seats in jeopardy. By contrast, only two GOP seats are in any meaningful danger, and that number hasn’t changed in six months.

Things are starting to look grisly for Senate Democrats [....]

Edit to add: the context of their discussion was also the current WaPo poll that shows the public agrees with a lot of Dem policy and trusts Dems over GOP on a lot of issues. That poll is also taken into account and acknowledged by Matthews and Axelrod, as well as Michael Steele who was also included in the discussion. Steele also thought Cook is right but thought that the GOP shouldn't get too cocky and not like, keep a lid on their crazies.

Obama budget sets up

artappraiser — Tue, 04 Mar 2014 19:17:31 +0000

In reply to G.O.P., Though Deeply Split, Has Election Edge, Poll Shows

Obama budget sets up election-year clash with Republicans
By Jeff Mason, Mark Felsenthal and David Lawder, Reuters, Mar 4, 2014

The key is to understand HOW

Peter Schwartz — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 23:23:15 +0000

In reply to I keep hearing this from the

The key is to understand HOW the GOP was able to do this in order to understand the challenge going forward.

Hint: They can win or massively disrupt with only a small minority. The center has been neutered, in effect.

White House operation on 2014

artappraiser — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 22:44:01 +0000

In reply to G.O.P., Though Deeply Split, Has Election Edge, Poll Shows

White House operation on 2014 and its new boss is described here:

Obama’s New Political Chief Tries to Reassure Democrats
By Michael D. Shear, New York Times, March 1/2, 2013

The ascension of David Simas is meant as a message that the White House is serious about defending the party’s control of the Senate and mitigating losses in the House.

in print there was this accompanying graphic

Interactive Graphic: The 2014 Senate Landscape

and there is also this in print today:

Democrats Try Wooing Ones Who Got Away: White Men
By Jackie Calmes, New York Times, March 2/3, 2013

An internal debate over how hard the party should work to win over white men has emerged as support from female and minority voters grows.

I tend to take you intuitions

artappraiser — Fri, 28 Feb 2014 05:40:14 +0000

In reply to Women will be voting this

I tend to take you intuitions about what is going on in the FL body politic very seriously. But your state has no role this year in what happens in the Senate. And changing the Senate is the main thing right now affecting which way the federal government goes, indeed quite possibly whether the president can do anything beyond executive orders.

Women will be voting this

trkingmomoe — Fri, 28 Feb 2014 04:52:24 +0000

In reply to With attacks on the minimum

Women will be voting this year as a block. I have waited all my adult life to finely see women stand up to their own best interests. There have been life long Republican women that have publicly left the party and joined the Democrats here in Florida. One is running for office the other was a former office holder. It has sent a strong message that it is OK to vote for how you feel personally and not stay loyal to something that doesn't look out for your best interests. GOP is in trouble at least in my part of the world.

With attacks on the minimum

rmrd0000 — Thu, 27 Feb 2014 15:16:59 +0000

In reply to NYT did a poll like this in

With attacks on the minimum wage, homosexuals, health care, etc, I think that their will be a reckoning for the GOP.

dagblog - Comments for "G.O.P., Though Deeply Split, Has Election Edge, Poll Shows"

Health Law Tied to G.O.P.

not really, it was more like

Why then the mismatch between

Chris Matthews just discussed

Obama budget sets up

The key is to understand HOW

White House operation on 2014

Interactive Graphic: The 2014 Senate Landscape

I tend to take you intuitions

Women will be voting this

With attacks on the minimum