dagblog - Comments for "Plague outbreaks that ravaged Europe for centuries were driven by climate change in Asia"

It does seem it should be the

trkingmomoe — Fri, 27 Feb 2015 19:13:15 +0000

In reply to I find this counter-intuitive

It does seem it should be the other way. Even less places for the mosquitoes to breed.

Then came 2012 and the start of the state’s protracted drought. That year, the number of reported human West Nile cases tripled from 158 to 479. Last year, the state saw 798 cases, the most since 2005, according to new figures from the California Department of Public Health.

Twenty-nine of those cases ended in death, tied for the highest number on record in California.

Drought affects water flows, often leaving pools instead of flowing streams. “A lot of water in nature becomes more stagnant,” said Dr. Dean Blumberg, an infectious disease specialist at UC Davis Children’s Hospital. And stagnant water draws mosquitoes.

The drought has had other effects as well: Lacking enough water in the wilderness, the birds that carry West Nile moved closer to artificial sources in populated areas, where they were bitten by mosquitoes and the infection was spread to more people. “As birds and mosquitoes sought water, they came into closer contact and amplified the virus,” said Dr. Gil Chavez, an epidemiologist at the state health department.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article11054219.html

I find this counter-intuitive

Verified Atheist — Fri, 27 Feb 2015 16:24:48 +0000

In reply to http://westnile.ca.gov/news

I find this counter-intuitive (which doesn't mean I think it's wrong). I'd think that there'd be fewer stagnant pools of water in a drought.

I suppose the logic is that without running streams, low spots in lakes become stagnant.

http://westnile.ca.gov/news

trkingmomoe — Fri, 27 Feb 2015 15:39:22 +0000

In reply to Plague outbreaks that ravaged Europe for centuries were driven by climate change in Asia

http://westnile.ca.gov/news.php?id=128

"The proportion of mosquitoes infected with West Nile virus is at the highest level ever detected in California," Chapman said. "Last week, 52 new human cases were reported to CDPH. We expect to see more people become infected as this is the time of year when the risk of infection is the highest."

So far in 2014, West Nile virus has been detected in 36 California counties. There have been 181 human cases reported to CDPH, a significant increase compared to the 101 cases reported by this time last year. Eight confirmed deaths have been reported to CDPH.

West Nile is on the rise in drought stricken California. This is caused by less puddles and watering holes for animals and insects. There is more stagnant pools of water that draws insects and very slow moving streams that pool up. It makes it easy to spread the disease among birds and mosquitoes because they have closer contact when seeking water. The birds carry it and the mosquitoes transfer it to humans.

Thanks for the link.

trkingmomoe — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 17:20:06 +0000

In reply to This blurb from UC Berkley

Thanks for the link.

The problem is just the lack of jobs in this economy. A service economy is not enough to move forward on, we need to create and make things. Degrees in social sciences always in the past had a place in the work world.

There is just too many anti-education politicians kissing up to the right to stay in office.

This blurb from UC Berkley

rmrd0000 — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 16:30:13 +0000

In reply to You just made me think of

This blurb from UC Berkley notes what their undergraduates are doing a third are unemployed using their degrees, a quarter are in graduate study. A quarter are unemployed, and the rest are involved in "other" activities. A 25% unemployment rate may not be that uncommon for college graduates in the time period evaluated.

http://anthropology.berkeley.edu/undergraduate/what-you-can-do-your-anth...

It wasn't uncommon running into anthropology students in chemistry, biology, math, and stats classes back in the medieval period when I attended college. Some degrees are associated with better employment opportunities with graduate degrees. The methodology and thought process required in anthropology would seem adaptable to multiple jobs.

You just made me think of

trkingmomoe — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 16:03:48 +0000

In reply to This is a great example of

You just made me think of Rick Scott and his statement that he thought he wasted money on his daughter's anthropology degree. He thought it was totally useless. He did this in a speech explaining his cuts to higher education. He wanted state colleges to cut programs like that back in favor of engineering and science. The corrupt bean counter/lawyer did not understand the connection between disciplines.

This study was very broad and they looked at DNA of bones for clues and in some cases preserved grains, tree rings, politics and leaves from that era. What climatologists figured out was that the mini ice age that occurred between the first pandemic that happened and the second one was caused by the reforestation of Europe. They noted that less CO2 was in the atmosphere. Half the population died in the first pandemic and there was not enough people to continue all the cultivation and the need for grains. The forests reclaimed the fields. Vegetation uses CO2 and returns oxygen by respiration into the atmosphere.

We are now entering into an era of unknowns because of man made climate change. In our life time we have seen two new epidemics, HIV and Ebola emerge. Who knows what else has potential to emerge?

This is a great example of

rmrd0000 — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 14:14:04 +0000

In reply to Plague outbreaks that ravaged Europe for centuries were driven by climate change in Asia

This is a great example of the value of investing in institutions of higher education. Collaboration between social scientists, biologists, climatologists, epidemiologists, resulted in compiling this data. When Governors slash educational budgets, society loses out.

Absolutely. I do think that

Verified Atheist — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 13:02:06 +0000

In reply to Thanks for your comment.

Absolutely. I do think that studying more recent outbreaks is more useful than studying outbreaks from centuries ago, but that doesn't mean that I think there's no value in studying outbreaks from centuries ago. In some ways we're better off (better sanitation), and in some ways we're worse off (more connectivity).

Thanks for your comment.

trkingmomoe — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 12:58:33 +0000

In reply to I think it's an interesting

Thanks for your comment.

Historical studies does give the CDC better information to use in building models of disease spread if there is a break out. It took a long time to figure out how the Spanish flu grew into a pandemic. The Chines have benefited from that knowledge in controlling out breaks of deadly new avian flu strains this last decade.

I think it's an interesting

Verified Atheist — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 12:20:26 +0000

In reply to "For example, we are learning

I think it's an interesting read, and I'm glad that Varlik is not predicting that modern climate change will cause another pandemic, because the world we live in now, with jetliners that connect distant and formerly remote parts of the globe, is so very different from the world back then. Don't get me wrong — I'm not saying that climate change will absolutely have no impact on future pandemics, just that it'd be dangerous to draw too many conclusions from pandemics hundreds of years ago and apply them to today (which isn't to say that studying them is a waste of time).

I do sometimes worry that too many things get blamed on climate change. This worry is only partially based on an assumption that a few of those things (probably a fairly small number) are being falsely attributed to climate change. No, mainly I worry that it makes a complicated picture seem more complicated, and the standard response when things seem complicated it to look at them like a Rorschach test. (Don't take this little rant as anything other than a stream-of-consciousness rant — it's most definitely not directed at you or Varlik.)