dagblog - Comments for "Ted Cruz and the Quest for the GOP Obama"

Mark Twain famously said he'd

PeraclesPlease — Mon, 30 Mar 2015 20:01:02 +0000

In reply to Well, I'd say treading water

Mark Twain famously said he'd rather decline 2 drinks than 1 German adjective.

I'll raise that, and offer to decline 2 best restaurants in the most lovely of cities under the loveliest of conditions. First prize 1 week. Second prize 2 weeks.

Yeah, yeah - watcha got in

PeraclesPlease — Mon, 30 Mar 2015 19:51:44 +0000

In reply to I am a face book groupy.

Yeah, yeah - watcha got in the bag, sister? Gotta snuff & snort for me too? Back in the day we got addicted to things that were actually fun and bad for us. Nowadays it's all virtual vicarious thrills, life from a distance. Like that facething - if I wanna get up in someone's face, I wanna see their nose hairs and smell their bad breath, maybe suck face a bit. Something's missing in this brave new world - people be bogarting.

Well, I'd say treading water

Doctor Cleveland — Mon, 30 Mar 2015 16:44:11 +0000

In reply to Yes, as you deduced, I was

Well, I'd say treading water for months without getting traction would be an even better confirmation. (Jon Huntsman didn't fall apart on 2012; he simply never had a shot, and was never anywhere near the winner's circle.) But yes. We're basically agreeing.

i'm not buying a plane ticket to pay off this friendly bet. My offer stands; you can have the pleasure of DENYING REPUBLICANS A TABLE at one of the two best restaurants downtown during the convention.

Michael, what about on a

Oxy Mora — Mon, 30 Mar 2015 15:46:44 +0000

In reply to Yeah, I do have LF in mind,

Michael, what about on a personality basis, was LF any more or less likable than Cruz?

Yes, as you deduced, I was

PeraclesPlease — Mon, 30 Mar 2015 15:43:33 +0000

In reply to No, it's not, especially when

Yes, as you deduced, I was just pointing out 1 snowfall (weather/incident) doesn't disprove global warming (climate/probability)

Okay, if Ted Cruz falls apart at the earliest possible moment say, then tends to support that there was never a high probability, no matter what his stats said.

This is something why a good baseball scout is needed - to cut through the crap of what looks good on paper and get to the real field-test likelihood.

Since this isn't dice, but a more subjective assessment of "probability", the odds are not specifically defined, so something that a gambler/political junkie can only hope to predict well - even Nate Silver's not 100%, and he's cheating by using polls rather than Hunter S. Thomson-like political instinct - few of those grungy animals left, alas.

As for your offer of dinner in Cleveland with 100,000 deranged rightists, thanks, I'd rather hit Amsterdam for some rijs tafel say. If I'm allowed to choose my prize.

I think dethroning Palin is

Oxy Mora — Mon, 30 Mar 2015 15:43:03 +0000

In reply to Yes, that's true. You can

I think dethroning Palin is closest to what is relevant here, bringing with it the possibility of a V.P.slot.

No, it's not, especially when

Doctor Cleveland — Mon, 30 Mar 2015 14:01:14 +0000

In reply to Sorry, probability isn't

No, it's not, especially when we're talking about a simple outcome. (Will Kentucky win March Madness? It's more likely than any other scenario, but might not happen.) Hillary Clinton might have been more likely to win in 2008 than Barack Obama, even though Obama did win.

But we're not talking about a simple outcome. We're talking about an iterated series of results. all with a wide range of outcomes. The 50 primaries and caucuses aren't either/or propositions, and neither really is the national campaign. You can win or lose by various margins.

And there are results that tend to confirm (although they cannot absolutely confirm), whether an outcome was likely at all.

If I tell you that Nomar Garciaparra will never (alas!) be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame as a player, the fact that Nomar doesn't get elected will not, as you correctly assert, prove me right. And you can rattle off Garciaparra's achievements (multiple batting titles, Rookie of the Year, several All-Star appearances, etc.), and tell me that he's totally a viable candidate.

But if Garciaparra never gets CLOSE to the margin he needs to be elected, that IS, in practice, a sign that the probability oh him being elected was always very, very low. It's not simply that Nomar won't get in. He won't ever get above 50% of the vote (he needs 75% for election). He will never be a viable candidate.

Now that I've come up with this example, I've gone and checked; turns out Nomar was on the HoF ballot for the first time this year. He got 5.5% of the vote, behind even Sammy Sosa (also never, ever going into the Hall of Fame). If Nomar gets less than 5% next year, he's off the ballot forever. And that, in practice, does confirm my prediction: this candidate does not have a chance to win.

If I tell you a could be play Major League Baseball someday and you say I don't have a chance, the test is not whether or not I make the big leagues. The test is whether or not I come close. If I never get as far as the minors, your prediction is largely confirmed.

I am not just saying that Ted Cruz will not become President. I am not even just saying that Ted Cruz will not get the Republican nomination. I am saying that Ted Cruz will never seriously threaten to win the Republican nomination. He will not be among the top two candidates this time next year.

If Ted Cruz places third in even ONE of the 2016 primaries, that will be a good result for him. If he gets more than 15% of the vote in any of the early primaries, that will be an excellent result for him. The odds are very, very low that Cruz will ever win 40% of any primary vote. That would only be possible for him at all after the field has narrowed to three, or more likely to two, candidates, and by the time the Republican field is down to two or three Cruz will not be one of them.

If Ted Cruz finishes second in the GOP primaries, come to Cleveland for the Republican convention and I will buy you a fancy dinner at either the Greenwood Tavern or Lola (your choice). You can hold me to that, PP.

I am a face book groupy.

trkingmomoe — Mon, 30 Mar 2015 13:44:38 +0000

In reply to Yeah yeah, come out of the

I am a face book groupy. Leave my addiction alone. It keeps grandma off the streets and out of trouble.

I think that he is really

rmrd0000 — Mon, 30 Mar 2015 12:53:10 +0000

In reply to Sorry, probability isn't

I think that he is really talking about the possibility that Cruz will be a viable candidate, rather than the probability that Cruz will be a viable candidate.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/dont-try-harder-try-different/20110...

Yeah yeah, come out of the

PeraclesPlease — Mon, 30 Mar 2015 12:26:36 +0000

In reply to I was one of those face book

Yeah yeah, come out of the closet... ;-)