dagblog - Comments for "Dr. Quinn's Koestler-like Energy Future Shock"

Sorry LULU i misinterpreted

Peter — Tue, 21 Apr 2015 06:13:00 +0000

In reply to No, I wasn't joking. Oxy said

Sorry LULU i misinterpreted your recommendation as backup for the solar system not the grid. The gas generator is certainly the best choice for that job but the fact he is on a system that has regular outages is bad news and relates to my concerns about grid and generation maintenance costs. During the day the solar component could help avoid these outages if they are demand problems and there is enough solar generated excess power. The problems could become more critical if the utility is having problems now with revenues to support maintenance and a large enough segment of their customers reduce or eliminate their contribution to revenues. The utility would have to supply less power but still maintain the same distribution system.

There is another problem that will have to be addressed as solar power grows and provides a larger share of power during the day. When the sun stops shining there will be a huge spike in system demand and coal power plants or even Nukes cannot be turned on and off rapidly, gas generators are more versatile so it may be necessary to construct new plants to meet this changed condition.

No, I wasn't joking. Oxy said

A Guy Called LULU — Tue, 21 Apr 2015 02:45:19 +0000

In reply to An average solar system

No, I wasn't joking. Oxy said earlier that he would have to look into battery backup because the area had frequent power outages. Remember that an operating grid is part of the system that he is contemplating. If the grid goes down he needs backup. I then recommended a generator for a backup. I had, by that time, forgot that he said that outages were frequent and based my opinion partly on rare usage. A generator might still be the best realistic choice for his situation for now. It isn't as if the construction and eventual disposal of batteries have no carbon footprint. Or, maybe you were joking and it is me who didn't get it. I agree with you that reducing per capita consumption is a necessary part of any grand solution.

Lulu, thanks so much for your

Oxy Mora — Tue, 21 Apr 2015 02:18:52 +0000

In reply to I am sure you know most of

Lulu, thanks so much for your comments. And I love the camper boat design.

I hadn't been able to get excited about a new project this year and had been trending toward a trailerable building but didn't like my designs. But doing a combination, and making the energy plant the functional driver for the overall design, does get my interest up.

In Peracles' blah, blah category I see a new form of rural community, one centered on the energy plant with members who are bound together by energy management and minimal foot prints. I think making investments in solar energy systems would encourage people to develop mores around reduced consumption rather than encourage greater consumption. I was thinking that if I invested money in a system I would try like hell not to exceed my limits for the month---I would be in more of a conservation mode than I am now.

An average solar system

Peter — Tue, 21 Apr 2015 01:01:47 +0000

In reply to Peter, you have to compare

An average solar system installer makes about $15.50/hr so few of them will be able to afford a system or even the electric rate increase to subsidize your system's connection to the grid, these are mostly low wage jobs and there wil not be a huge number of them but they are better than working at Walmart whose employees may also pay this cost. Some utilities in Texas i think are already charging about $5/mo for solar system connection to the their grid so other consumers may not see this cost but it is a cost that can't be avoided.

I think solar/wind power can be a very positive addition to our power supplies but it must be used in addition to drastic cuts in overall energy consumption otherwise it just adds more supply and promotes more waste and over-consumption. If we could reduce our consumption to something near what Europeans use we would be rapidly reducing our carbon emissions while transitioning to solar/wind supplies.

I have to comment on LuLu's idea of using oil to power his solar power system, I hope that was a joke!

I am sure you know most of

A Guy Called LULU — Mon, 20 Apr 2015 20:17:28 +0000

In reply to Thanks, Lulu.

I am sure you know most of what I might say but I’ll throw out a few more thoughts anyway. The most common solar setups are hooked up to the grid and send their DC power through a 110 converter and then to the bottom or power out side of the electric meter. That automatically moves the meter in the appropriate direction depending on whether the solar system is producing more or less electricity than you are using. In this way you can use standard appliances and standard lighting. To cover grid outages you would need a battery backup going through a converter to 110 or else a generator. My choice would be a small generator that would handle minimum demand and would free you from an expensive battery bank that would need maintenance even though it would be expected that it would very seldomly be used. Off-grid would obviously need batteries.

Another thing to consider if you choose to mount the cells on a trailer is that low voltage DC current loses a lot of power to the resistance of the wire carrying it, much more than 110 volt AC. Greater distance, bigger loss so putting it out of sight on the south forty probably isn't a realistic consideration. Unless the trailer were close on the south side of the house and otherwise free from shade you would need to figure the expense of whatever length of heavy guage low resistance stranded wire needed to make the connection.

Going off topic to boats and remembering your interest in tiny houses I’ll show a project which I am strongly considering. I love to travel, to camp out, and to spend time on the water. I hate motels and cannot afford them for any extended time so this would fit me quite well, I think. A slightly larger version is in the works. This would definitely be for getting off the grid. I hope you keep us posted on your research and final decision.

http://www.portableboatplans.com/mini-camper-cruiser.php

Peter, you have to compare

Oxy Mora — Mon, 20 Apr 2015 19:41:47 +0000

In reply to Interesting graph, Q it shows

Peter, you have to compare the effects of immediate investment, say in solar as per my above $20 K system, upon job creation versus the process of possible cost shifting. I'm no economist but I'm guessing the investment and multipliers would substantially outweigh negative effects of cost shifting. It seems that more and better paying jobs would be a benefit to less affluent homeowners, and even renters.

Thanks, Q., this discussion

Oxy Mora — Mon, 20 Apr 2015 19:10:54 +0000

In reply to Yeah, you'll need a pro to

Thanks, Q., this discussion really was important. I was figuring 33% to 50% sunlight which was still optimistic, it's about 25% (5.8 hours out of 24) for my area, and about half of that "up North".

Right. So I called the vendor

Oxy Mora — Mon, 20 Apr 2015 18:57:41 +0000

In reply to You guys have sparked my

Right. So I called the vendor.

The 6.68 package at my location would produce 11, 448 Kwh per year. (Conversion to AC drops it to 5.1 Khw and the index is 5.8 hours of sunlight per day). Or less than half my requirements of 2000 Kwh per month.

The $ 15 K ground mount is more expensive than the roof mount, which is $11K.

Funny thing, the 12 Kwh system, roof mount, is $16,000. (The inverter is amortized over a larger system---or the guy figured he had a live one.)

So, $16,000 less tax credit is $12,000.

Payback on the package about 4 years.

Of course there is shipping, installation, dealing with the co-op, getting a trailer (or two), if need be, all at which is going to double the $12 K. Still, looks like a good deal to me, even at 8--10 years' payback.

Thanks for bringing this subject up. I never before seriously looked at it.

Yeah, you'll need a pro to

Mon, 20 Apr 2015 18:52:22 +0000

In reply to You guys have sparked my

Yeah, you'll need a pro to run the numbers Oxy. But for starters, you won't get 24 hours of power from solar... for some reason.

Thanks, Lulu.

Oxy Mora — Mon, 20 Apr 2015 18:01:51 +0000

In reply to My son who lives in southern

Thanks, Lulu.

My daughter has a system but the payback is upwards of 15 years. I'm just trying to see if I have the essential math any where near right---i.e., what a "6.68 Kwh" system will produce.

I have built a number of small cottages,etc. on the property and was contemplating a new project so maybe the trailerable energy plant would be the thing.. And like you say, it should include a tracking system. Also, a possible switch to batteries---that's a whole other research area, and thanks for the advice.

In my compound-avec-cottages design I neglected to consider the fact that on a re-sale the property is "non-conforming"---i.e. a buyer would have a problem getting a home loan. So eventually I might have to rearrange things, divide the property, etc.---in which case the portable system would give me more options.

As a boat guy you might be interested to know that a large new reservoir will be built very close to the property. This could have a lot of disadvantages---construction of the dam, traffic, more Ram dualies. But then there is the thought of having a boat nearby. And something I don't know whether or not is true, but it is being said that the reservoir will lower the ambient temperature a few degrees.