dagblog - Comments for "Thinking About the Unthinkable: An Israel-Iran Nuclear War"

India and Pakistan were

ocean-kat — Mon, 21 Sep 2015 03:56:48 +0000

In reply to Remember "Protect and Survive

India and Pakistan were developing nukes simultaneously. Yes the arms race was between India and Pakistan but Pakistan is still a unstable Muslim country that hates Israel. I'd be more worried about them than Iran. Just as India's bomb may have accelerated Pakistan's program isn't it likely Israel's nukes accelerated Iran's program?

I actually have the harshest views of Muslims here on dagblog and some here have even accused me of Islamaphobia. Yet even I don't believe the theocrats leading Iran are apocalyptic. They seem quite happy being in control of a country and it's people. Iran is fairly stable and well run even in the face of the misery of the sanctions. While they might finance acts of terror I don't see them as suicide bombers.

The status quo will not hold. Proliferation will continue until we seriously pursue disarmament. Eventually the large nations will have to reach agreements to decommission more and more nukes followed by smaller nations including Israel reaching agreements to decommission their nukes or proliferation will continue and Israel will find itself pointing it's nukes at several other middle east nations with nukes pointed at Israel. Israel is foolish if it thinks it can maintain it's position as the sole nuclear power in the middle east. In fact that position is already gone.

Remember "Protect and Survive

Lurker — Sun, 20 Sep 2015 22:33:21 +0000

In reply to When the US had a nuke and

Remember "Protect and Survive"? Backyard fallout shelters? But MAD doesn't work if your enemy is looking forward to the Apocalypse.

I might be wrong about this, but I think the Russian nuke came as a complete surprise to the US, and so your case is moot. If the US had known about Soviet nuke sites, they might well have bombed them.

Pakistan did not develop the bomb because of Israel; it was responding to India's bomb. I agree that Pakistan is unstable and dangerous.

US intelligence services seem to have a perfect record of missing foreign nuclear developments. Presumably, they are too busy monitoring political opponents of the administration. Now we are supposed to trust them about Iran....

When the US had a nuke and

ocean-kat — Sun, 20 Sep 2015 05:32:45 +0000

In reply to I hope very much that Bosma

When the US had a nuke and the Soviet Union didn't we could have made a equally convincing case that we had to bomb any site in Russia making a nuke. In the end the only option was MAD and learning to live with it. There were some scary years back then as we over reacted. I remember drills in school going into pipe filled tunnel deep under the elementary school

It would be easier to keep all nukes out of the Middle East if Israel didn't have nukes. When Israel decided to join the nuclear club it made the choice to accept that only option as well. I think Pakistan is a more unstable country and a greater nuclear risk to Israel than Iran would be if it got a bomb.

I hope very much that Bosma

Lurker — Sat, 19 Sep 2015 23:44:32 +0000

In reply to That's a silly response.

(Accidentally sent this twice.)

I hope very much that Bosma

Lurker — Sat, 19 Sep 2015 23:42:23 +0000

In reply to That's a silly response.

I hope very much that Bosma is wrong. I hope very much that Israel's leaders find some other option.

He does sound convincing, though.

So what's the right wing

NCD — Sat, 19 Sep 2015 23:32:30 +0000

In reply to It's a fair cop, guv! You've

So what's the right wing option? Invade, occupy and have an election? And I trust the Int. Atomic. Energy commission more than the blowhards at your links.

If the development of MAD

moat — Sat, 19 Sep 2015 23:17:05 +0000

In reply to He mentions a lot of other

If the sanctions agreement is just a trick to allow Iran to eliminate Israel, then it is not just about making the weapon to do it; it is signaling to the world that nothing else matters to them, including their own survival.
Nothing that we or Iranians would recognize as Iran would survive such a war.
The article's emphasis on what it would take to blow up a bunker is not a good measure of the two sided sword of mass destruction.

That's a silly response.

ocean-kat — Sat, 19 Sep 2015 22:37:36 +0000

In reply to Unlike, say, North Korea,

That's a silly response. Conventional "wisdom" is that North Korea and Iran cannot be trusted with a nuclear weapon while Israel can. I'm simply saying that if a significant portion of the Israeli political class is seriously considering rationals for a first strike imo that's convincing evidence that the conventional wisdom on Israel is wrong. I'm also saying I doubt articles like this are taken seriously by the vast majority of the Israeli political class. I really hope I'm right about that. Even the vast majority of the US far right aren't talking about first strike nuking our enemies.

It's a fair cop, guv! You've

Lurker — Sat, 19 Sep 2015 22:24:14 +0000

In reply to The inspection agreement is

It's a fair cop, guv! You've caught me reading well-known right wing propagandists, like:

Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/11/us-iran-nuclear-parchin-exclusive-idUSKCN0RB2D420150911

The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2015/08/19/the-latest-iran-revelation-is-utterly-humiliating/

NBC News: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/iran-nuclear-talks/side-deal-allows-iran-inspect-its-own-military-site-n412786

AP: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a9f4e40803924a8ab4c61cb65b2b2bb3/ap-exclusive-un-let-iran-inspect-alleged-nuke-work-site

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/19/politics/iran-nuclear-deal-inspections-parchin/

And, of course, The Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/articles/irans-secret-self-inspections-1440026399

Well, sucking the Russians

PeraclesPlease — Sat, 19 Sep 2015 20:16:53 +0000

In reply to Bosma?

Well, sucking the Russians into Afghanistan while getting them to try competing on weapons seems to have worked. Billions well spent, considering the alternative.